scholarly journals A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population: An application to SARS-CoV-2

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. e1009058
Author(s):  
Edward M. Hill ◽  
Benjamin D. Atkins ◽  
Matt J. Keeling ◽  
Louise Dyson ◽  
Michael J. Tildesley
Keyword(s):  
Network Model ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Work Patterns ◽  
General Role ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
Working Practices ◽  
The Impact

As part of a concerted pandemic response to protect public health, businesses can enact non-pharmaceutical controls to minimise exposure to pathogens in workplaces and premises open to the public. Amendments to working practices can lead to the amount, duration and/or proximity of interactions being changed, ultimately altering the dynamics of disease spread. These modifications could be specific to the type of business being operated. We use a data-driven approach to parameterise an individual-based network model for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 amongst the working population, stratified into work sectors. The network is comprised of layered contacts to consider the risk of spread in multiple encounter settings (workplaces, households, social and other). We analyse several interventions targeted towards working practices: mandating a fraction of the population to work from home; using temporally asynchronous work patterns; and introducing measures to create ‘COVID-secure’ workplaces. We also assess the general role of adherence to (or effectiveness of) isolation and test and trace measures and demonstrate the impact of all these interventions across a variety of relevant metrics. The progress of the epidemic can be significantly hindered by instructing a significant proportion of the workforce to work from home. Furthermore, if required to be present at the workplace, asynchronous work patterns can help to reduce infections when compared with scenarios where all workers work on the same days, particularly for longer working weeks. When assessing COVID-secure workplace measures, we found that smaller work teams and a greater reduction in transmission risk reduced the probability of large, prolonged outbreaks. Finally, following isolation guidance and engaging with contact tracing without other measures is an effective tool to curb transmission, but is highly sensitive to adherence levels. In the absence of sufficient adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions, our results indicate a high likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 spreading widely throughout a worker population. Given the heterogeneity of demographic attributes across worker roles, in addition to the individual nature of controls such as contact tracing, we demonstrate the utility of a network model approach to investigate workplace-targeted intervention strategies and the role of test, trace and isolation in tackling disease spread.

scholarly journals A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population: An application to SARS-CoV-2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward M Hill ◽  
Benjamin D Atkins ◽  
Matt J Keeling ◽  
Louise Dyson ◽  
Michael J Tildesley
Keyword(s):  
Network Model ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Work Patterns ◽  
General Role ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
Working Practices ◽  
The Impact

Background: As part of a concerted pandemic response to protect public health, businesses can enact non-pharmaceutical controls to minimise exposure to pathogens in workplaces and premises open to the public. Amendments to working practices can lead to the amount, duration and/or proximity of interactions being changed, ultimately altering the dynamics of disease spread. These modifications could be specific to the type of business being operated. Methods: We use a data-driven approach to parameterise an individual-based network model for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 amongst the working population, stratified into work sectors. The network is comprised of layered contacts to consider risk of spread in multiple encounter settings (workplaces, households, social and other). We analyse several interventions targeted towards working practices: mandating a fraction of the population to work from home, using temporally asynchronous work patterns and introducing measures to create `COVID-secure' workplaces. We also assess the general role of adherence to (or effectiveness of) isolation and test and trace measures and demonstrate the impact of all these interventions across a variety of relevant metrics. Results: The progress of the epidemic can be significantly hindered by instructing a significant proportion of the workforce to work from home. Furthermore, if required to be present at the workplace, asynchronous work patterns can help to reduce infections when compared with scenarios where all workers work on the same days, particularly for longer working weeks. When assessing COVID-secure workplace measures, we found that smaller work teams and a greater reduction in transmission risk led to a flatter temporal profile for both infections and the number of people isolating, and reduced the probability of large, long outbreaks. Finally, following isolation guidance and engaging with contact tracing alone is an effective tool to curb transmission, but is highly sensitive to adherence levels. Conclusions: In the absence of sufficient adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions, our results indicate a high likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 spreading widely throughout a worker population. Given the heterogeneity of demographic attributes across worker roles, in addition to the individual nature of controls such as contact tracing, we demonstrate the utility of a network model approach to investigate workplace-targeted intervention strategies and the role of test, trace and isolation in tackling disease spread.

scholarly journals Prostate cancer and the human papilloma virus: causative association, role of vaccines, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naomi Morka ◽  
Joseph M. Norris ◽  
Mark Emberton ◽  
Daniel Kelly
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Human Papilloma Virus ◽  
Hpv Vaccination ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Papilloma Virus ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hpv Vaccine Uptake

AbstractProstate cancer affects a significant proportion of men worldwide. Evidence from genetic and clinical studies suggests that there may be a causal association between prostate cancer and the human papilloma virus (HPV). As HPV is a vaccine-preventable pathogen, the possibility of a role in prostate cancer causation may reinforce the importance of effective HPV vaccination campaigns. This is of particular relevance in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have considerable effects on HPV vaccine uptake and distribution.

scholarly journals Exploring the effectiveness of a COVID-19 contact tracing app using an agent-based model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonatan Almagor ◽  
Stefano Picascia
Keyword(s):  
High Rate ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Social ◽  
Behavioural Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
User Rate

AbstractA contact-tracing strategy has been deemed necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 following the relaxation of lockdown measures. Using an agent-based model, we explore one of the technology-based strategies proposed, a contact-tracing smartphone app. The model simulates the spread of COVID-19 in a population of agents on an urban scale. Agents are heterogeneous in their characteristics and are linked in a multi-layered network representing the social structure—including households, friendships, employment and schools. We explore the interplay of various adoption rates of the contact-tracing app, different levels of testing capacity, and behavioural factors to assess the impact on the epidemic. Results suggest that a contact tracing app can contribute substantially to reducing infection rates in the population when accompanied by a sufficient testing capacity or when the testing policy prioritises symptomatic cases. As user rate increases, prevalence of infection decreases. With that, when symptomatic cases are not prioritised for testing, a high rate of app users can generate an extensive increase in the demand for testing, which, if not met with adequate supply, may render the app counterproductive. This points to the crucial role of an efficient testing policy and the necessity to upscale testing capacity.

scholarly journals How detection ranges and usage stops impact digital contact tracing effectiveness for COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantin D. Pandl ◽  
Scott Thiebes ◽  
Manuel Schmidt-Kraepelin ◽  
Ali Sunyaev
Keyword(s):  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Behavioral Characteristics ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Detection Range ◽  
Proximity Detection ◽  
Effective Technology ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Effectiveness And Efficiency ◽  
The Impact

AbstractTo combat the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries around the globe have adopted digital contact tracing apps. Various technologies exist to trace contacts that are potentially prone to different types of tracing errors. Here, we study the impact of different proximity detection ranges on the effectiveness and efficiency of digital contact tracing apps. Furthermore, we study a usage stop effect induced by a false positive quarantine. Our results reveal that policy makers should adjust digital contact tracing apps to the behavioral characteristics of a society. Based on this, the proximity detection range should at least cover the range of a disease spread, and be much wider in certain cases. The widely used Bluetooth Low Energy protocol may not necessarily be the most effective technology for contact tracing.

scholarly journals Selection shapes the landscape of functional variation in wild house mice

BMC Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Raman Akinyanju Lawal ◽  
Uma P. Arora ◽  
Beth L. Dumont
Keyword(s):  
Positive Selection ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Wild Mouse ◽  
House Mice ◽  
Functional Variation ◽  
Disease Associated Genes ◽  
Functional Alleles ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mouse Genetic

Abstract Background Through human-aided dispersal over the last ~ 10,000 years, house mice (Mus musculus) have recently colonized diverse habitats across the globe, promoting the emergence of new traits that confer adaptive advantages in distinct environments. Despite their status as the premier mammalian model system, the impact of this demographic and selective history on the global patterning of disease-relevant trait variation in wild mouse populations is poorly understood. Results Here, we leveraged 154 whole-genome sequences from diverse wild house mouse populations to survey the geographic organization of functional variation and systematically identify signals of positive selection. We show that a significant proportion of wild mouse variation is private to single populations, including numerous predicted functional alleles. In addition, we report strong signals of positive selection at many genes associated with both complex and Mendelian diseases in humans. Notably, we detect a significant excess of selection signals at disease-associated genes relative to null expectations, pointing to the important role of adaptation in shaping the landscape of functional variation in wild mouse populations. We also uncover strong signals of selection at multiple genes involved in starch digestion, including Mgam and Amy1. We speculate that the successful emergence of the human-mouse commensalism may have been facilitated, in part, by dietary adaptations at these loci. Finally, our work uncovers multiple cryptic structural variants that manifest as putative signals of positive selection, highlighting an important and under-appreciated source of false-positive signals in genome-wide selection scans. Conclusions Overall, our findings highlight the role of adaptation in shaping wild mouse genetic variation at human disease-associated genes. Our work also highlights the biomedical relevance of wild mouse genetic diversity and underscores the potential for targeted sampling of mice from specific populations as a strategy for developing effective new mouse models of both rare and common human diseases.

scholarly journals Organisation design and the role of ICT: Negative effects of working from home during the coronavirus pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Ernad Kahrović ◽  
Emina Kahrović
Keyword(s):  
Dominant Role ◽  
Organization Design ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
Working From Home ◽  
New Organizational Forms ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Impact Of Technology ◽  
The Impact

The goal of the paper is to point to the role and importance of organization design as a tool for strategy implementation, together with a dominant, role of technology in shaping the design. Namely, the development, of modern information and communication technology (ICT) is accompanied by the creation of new organizational forms, which enable the management, and employees to carry out, a significant, portion of work from home. The central focus of this paper is the impact, of technology on the creation of new forms of design, with a virtual organization taking up a particularly prominent, position. We underline the fact, that, among many changes that, the coronavirus pandemic has produced in everyday life, working from home can be considered as the most, drastic one; hence, its harmful effects are underscored, such as those relating to negative psychological effects, anxiety disorders, health issues, job loss, decreased efficiency and reduced satisfaction of the employees.

scholarly journals Building Resilient, Smart Communities in a Post-COVID Era

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 18-26
Author(s):  
Aoife Doyle ◽  
William Hynes ◽  
Stephen M. Purcell
Keyword(s):  
Regional Growth ◽  
Transformational Change ◽  
Short Article ◽  
Rapid Changes ◽  
Working Practices ◽  
Dramatic Shift ◽  
Smart Communities ◽  
Sustainable Recovery ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic spread rapidly throughout the world in early 2020. Beyond the substantial health impacts, the crisis has served as a catalyst for a dramatic shift in working practices, a greater reliance on technology, and a subsequent reduction in air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in the most heavily populated parts of the planet. Indeed, the crisis has highlighted the interconnected nature of society's vulnerabilities while also demonstrating that transformational change is possible. These rapid changes have ignited debate around how to build more resilient societies and the role of planning in promoting equitable and sustainable recovery. This article presents key insights from Ireland, as policymakers grapple with these questions and the role of technology in ensuring ongoing delivery of services and a continuation of democratic processes. Specifically, this short article focuses on the impact of the pandemic on town centres and regional growth in Ireland and the potential interventions which can aid in addressing recently intensified local challenges.

scholarly journals Anatomy of digital contact tracing: role of age, transmission setting, adoption and case detection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús A. Moreno López ◽  
Beatriz Arregui-Garcĺa ◽  
Piotr Bentkowski ◽  
Livio Bioglio ◽  
Francesco Pinotti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Case Detection ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Contact Survey ◽  
Low Coverage ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemiological Information

The efficacy of digital contact tracing against COVID-19 epidemic is debated: smartphone penetration is limited in many countries, non-uniform across age groups, with low coverage among elderly, the most vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2. We developed an agent-based model to precise the impact of digital contact tracing and household isolation on COVID-19 transmission. The model, calibrated on French population, integrates demographic, contact-survey and epidemiological information to describe the risk factors for exposure and transmission of COVID-19. We explored realistic levels of case detection, app adoption, population immunity and transmissibility. Assuming a reproductive ratio R=2.6 and 50% detection of clinical cases, a ~20% app adoption reduces peak incidence of ~36%. With R=1.7, >30% app adoption lowers the epidemic to manageable levels. Higher coverage among adults, playing a central role in COVID-19 transmission, yields an indirect benefit for elderly. These results may inform the inclusion of digital contact tracing within a COVID-19 response plan.

scholarly journals The Impact of Work From Home to Work Life-Balance and Its Implication to Employee Happiness: The Moderating Role of Organizational Support

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Johanna Gracelia Elnanto ◽  
Lieli Suharti
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Support ◽  
Work Life ◽  
Work Life Balance ◽  
Life Balance ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
Employee Happiness

Working from home was an increasing phenomenon to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Although WFH has been expendable well documented, there are still limited studies related to the subject of life balance, happiness and organizational support. This study aimed to figure out; 1) The influence of work from home on work-life balance, 2) The influence of work-life balance on happiness, 3) The moderating role of organizational supports towards work from home and work-life balances. The respondents used in this research were the 94 lecturers who worked in Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana. The study was done in a quantitative method through cross-sectional data and non-probability sampling method. The analysis model used was Path Analysis, Moderated Regression Analysis and Simple Regression test. The result of this research indicates that WFH has positive effects on WLB and WLB has positive effects on employee happiness. The testing done on moderating effect appeared that organizational support does not moderate the effects of WFH on WLB. Apart from that, theoretical and practical implications were also given in this research.

scholarly journals Modeling disease spread in populations with birth, death, and concurrency

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel C. Miller ◽  
Anja C. Slim
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Dynamic Network ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Initial Growth ◽  
Concurrent Partnerships ◽  
Equilibrium Size ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Concurrent Relationships

AbstractThe existence of sexual partnerships that overlap in time (concurrent relationships) is believed by some to be a significant contributing factor to the spread of HIV, although this is controversial. We derive an analytic model which allows us to investigate and compare disease spread in populations with and without concurrency. We can identify regions of parameter space in which its impact is negligible, and other regions in which it plays a major role. We also see that the impact of concurrency on the initial growth phase can be much larger than its impact on the equilibrium size. We see that the effect of concurrency saturates, which leads to the perhaps surprising conclusion that interventions targeting concurrency may be most effective in populations with low to moderate levels of concurrency.Author SummaryWe consider the spread of an infectious disease through a population modeled by a dynamic network with demographic turnover. We develop a stochastic model of the disease and derive governing equations that exactly predict the large population (deterministic) limit of the stochastic model. We use this to investigate the role of concurrency and find that interventions targeting concurrency may be most effective in populations with lower levels of concurrency.Our model is not intended to be an accurate representation of any single population. Rather it is intended to give general insights for intervention design and to provide a framework which can be further specialized to particular populations.This model is the first model to allow for analytic investigation of the impact of concurrent partnerships in a population exhibiting demographic turnover. Thus it will be useful for investigating the “concurrency hypothesis.”

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