Ecological and Geographical Analysis of the Distribution of the Mountain Tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: Importance of Protected Areas in Future Scenarios of Global Warming

Global change will causes species range shifts, affecting species interactions. The conservation implications of species range shifts are widely unknown. Through forming an ecology-bioinformatics partnership at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center-Encyclopedia of Life-Biodiversity Heritage Library Research Sprint, we developed an analytical pipeline to test whether global trends are forcing shifts of mutually dependent species in different spatial directions. We calculated potential overlap between dependent species across climate scenarios within protected areas. We selected the Great Green Macaw (Ara ambiguus) and its nesting host tree the Giant Almendro (Dipteryx panamensis) as a proof-of-concept species pair that will be affected by range shifts. We demonstrate with modeling that the Great Green Macaw will lose approximately 64.0% of suitable habitat in future scenarios, while the Giant Almendro will lose 59.7% of suitable habitat. Species habitat overlaps across 85.3 % of its currently predicted distribution and 69.07% of the remaining habitat predicted in future scenarios. After accounting for spatially explicit protected areas networks, only 20.3% and 40.2 % of remaining habitat persists within protected areas across climate scenarios for the Almendro and Macaw, respectively, and 19.9 % of that habitat overlaps between the species. Currently, we are conducting a literature review to select and expand our list of species for use in the pipeline to detect trends for climate readiness planning in protected areas networks. The analytical pipeline will produce habitat suitability maps for multiple climate scenarios based on current distributions, and these maps will potentially be embedded into the Encyclopedia of Life as free, downloadable files. This is just one of several broader impact products from the research. This work demonstrates that modeling the future distribution of species is limited by biotic interactions and conservation planning should account for climate change scenarios.

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A process to support species conservation planning and climate change readiness in protected areas

10.7287/peerj.preprints.492v2 ◽

2014 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Nicole F. Angeli ◽

Javier Otegui ◽

Margot Wood ◽

Emma P. Gomez-Ruiz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Conservation Planning ◽

Species Interactions ◽

Species Range ◽

Range Shifts ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Climate Scenarios

Global change will causes species range shifts, affecting species interactions. The conservation implications of species range shifts are widely unknown. Through forming an ecology-bioinformatics partnership at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center-Encyclopedia of Life-Biodiversity Heritage Library Research Sprint, we developed an analytical pipeline to test whether global trends are forcing shifts of mutually dependent species in different spatial directions. We calculated potential overlap between dependent species across climate scenarios within protected areas. We selected the Great Green Macaw (Ara ambiguus) and its nesting host tree the Giant Almendro (Dipteryx panamensis) as a proof-of-concept species pair that will be affected by range shifts. We demonstrate with modeling that the Great Green Macaw will lose approximately 64.0% of suitable habitat in future scenarios, while the Giant Almendro will lose 59.7% of suitable habitat. Species habitat overlaps across 85.3 % of its currently predicted distribution and 69.07% of the remaining habitat predicted in future scenarios. After accounting for spatially explicit protected areas networks, only 20.3% and 40.2 % of remaining habitat persists within protected areas across climate scenarios for the Almendro and Macaw, respectively, and 19.9 % of that habitat overlaps between the species. Currently, we are conducting a literature review to select and expand our list of species for use in the pipeline to detect trends for climate readiness planning in protected areas networks. The analytical pipeline will produce habitat suitability maps for multiple climate scenarios based on current distributions, and these maps will potentially be embedded into the Encyclopedia of Life as free, downloadable files. This is just one of several broader impact products from the research. This work demonstrates that modeling the future distribution of species is limited by biotic interactions and conservation planning should account for climate change scenarios.

Download Full-text

A process to support species conservation planning and climate change readiness in protected areas

10.7287/peerj.preprints.492 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

Nicole F. Angeli ◽

Javier Otegui ◽

Margot Wood ◽

Emma P. Gomez-Ruiz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Conservation Planning ◽

Species Interactions ◽

Species Range ◽

Range Shifts ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Climate Scenarios

Global change will causes species range shifts, affecting species interactions. The conservation implications of species range shifts are widely unknown. Through forming an ecology-bioinformatics partnership at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center-Encyclopedia of Life-Biodiversity Heritage Library Research Sprint, we developed an analytical pipeline to test whether global trends are forcing shifts of mutually dependent species in different spatial directions. We calculated potential overlap between dependent species across climate scenarios within protected areas. We selected the Great Green Macaw (Ara ambiguus) and its nesting host tree the Giant Almendro (Dipteryx panamensis) as a proof-of-concept species pair that will be affected by range shifts. We demonstrate with modeling that the Great Green Macaw will lose approximately 64.0% of suitable habitat in future scenarios, while the Giant Almendro will lose 59.7% of suitable habitat. Species habitat overlaps across 85.3 % of its currently predicted distribution and 69.07% of the remaining habitat predicted in future scenarios. After accounting for spatially explicit protected areas networks, only 20.3% and 40.2 % of remaining habitat persists within protected areas across climate scenarios for the Almendro and Macaw, respectively, and 19.9 % of that habitat overlaps between the species. Currently, we are conducting a literature review to select and expand our list of species for use in the pipeline to detect trends for climate readiness planning in protected areas networks. The analytical pipeline will produce habitat suitability maps for multiple climate scenarios based on current distributions, and these maps will potentially be embedded into the Encyclopedia of Life as free, downloadable files. This is just one of several broader impact products from the research. This work demonstrates that modeling the future distribution of species is limited by biotic interactions and conservation planning should account for climate change scenarios.

Download Full-text

Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Coarse Scale Marsh Migration on Storm Surge Hydrodynamics and Waves on Coastal Protected Areas in the Chesapeake Bay

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ◽

10.3390/jmse6030086 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 86 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Alayna Bigalbal ◽

Ali Rezaie ◽

Juan Garzon ◽

Celso Ferreira

Keyword(s):

Protected Areas ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Chesapeake Bay ◽

Sea Level ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Coastal Wetland ◽

Storm Track ◽

Conservation Strategies ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Coarse Scale

The increasing rate of sea level rise (SLR) poses a major threat to coastal lands and natural resources, especially affecting natural preserves and protected areas along the coast. These impacts are likely to exacerbate when combined with storm surges. It is also expected that SLR will cause spatial reduction and migration of coastal wetland and marsh ecosystems, which are common in the natural preserves. This study evaluates the potential impacts of SLR and marsh migration on the hydrodynamics and waves conditions inside natural protected areas during storm surge. The study focused on four protected areas located in different areas of the Chesapeake Bay representing different hydrodynamic regimes. Historical and synthetic storms are simulated using a coupled storm surge (ADCIRC) and wave (SWAN) model for the Bay region for current condition and future scenarios. The future scenarios include different rates of local SLR projections (0.48 m, 0.97 m, 1.68 m, and 2.31 m) and potential land use changes due to SLR driven marsh migration, which is discretized in the selected preserve areas in a coarse scale. The results showed a linear increase of maximum water depth with respect to SLR inside the protected areas. However, the inundation extent, the maximum wave heights, and the current velocities inside the coastal protected areas showed a non-linear relationship with SLR, indicating that the combined impacts of storm surge, SLR, and marsh migration depend on multiple factors such as storm track, intensity, local topography, and locations of coastal protected areas. Furthermore, the impacts of SLR were significantly greater after a 1 m threshold of rise, suggesting the presence of a critical limit for conservation strategies.

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Environmental diagnoses and effective planning of Protected Areas in Brazil: Is there any connection?

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0242687 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 15 (12) ◽

pp. e0242687

Author(s):

Ana Rafaela D´Amico ◽

José Eugênio Cortes Figueira ◽

José Flávio Cândido-Jr. ◽

Maria Auxiliadora Drumond

Keyword(s):

Protected Areas ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Effective Management ◽

Conservation Targets ◽

Management Plans ◽

The Status ◽

Low Levels ◽

Extractive Reserves ◽

Definition Of

Protected Areas (PAs) are essential to maintaining biodiversity, while effective management plans (MPs) are essential for the management of these areas. Thus, MPs must have relevant data analyses and diagnoses to evaluate ecological conditions of PAs. We evaluated the environmental diagnoses of 126 Brazilian federal PAs, the methods used to collect data and defined the diagnostic level of PMs according to the type and number of analyzes performed for each PA category. We found a low level of diagnosis in MPs. Primary field data or research programs resulted in environmental diagnostics of higher levels. Participatory workshops and secondary data, most used in Extractive Reserves, were related to low levels of diagnoses. The most frequent analysis was the identification of threats (97% of MPs), while the least frequent were the definition of conservation targets and future scenarios for management (1.6% of MPs). Our results show that the diagnoses of the MPs need to be more analytical to generate useful information for decision-making. MPs should prioritize data analysis and specific management studies, focused on the use of natural resources, the status of conservation targets, future scenarios, and key information to planning.

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Status, trends and future scenarios for forest conservation including protected areas in the Asia-Pacific region

10.5962/bhl.title.44853 ◽

1997 ◽

Keyword(s):

Protected Areas ◽

Forest Conservation ◽

Asia Pacific ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Pacific Region ◽

Asia Pacific Region

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