scholarly journals Approximate calculations of the net economic impact of global warming mitigation targets under heightened damage estimates

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. e0239520
Author(s):  
Patrick T. Brown ◽  
Harry Saunders
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Damage Estimates

scholarly journals On the spatial economic impact of global warming

2015 ◽  
Vol 88 ◽  
pp. 16-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus Desmet ◽  
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Economic Impact

scholarly journals Controlling CO2 emissions for each area in a region: the case of Japan

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tetsuya Tamaki ◽  
Wataru Nozawa ◽  
Shunsuke Managi
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
The Other ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Emission Target ◽  
Emission Quota ◽  
Capital Transfer

Abstract Background Global warming is the most serious problem we face today. Each country is expected to ensure international cooperation toward minimizing risk. To evaluate the countermeasures, many researchers have developed integrated assessment models (IAMs). Then, how can each country achieve its emission quota? This study proposes models that analyze the economic impact of global warming in a region based on the results obtained by the global model. By using these suggested models, we perform a comparative analysis on three policy cases: a different regulations case, a unified regulation case, and an output redistribution case. Results We analyzed Japan as one of the case studies and found that more developed areas should implement stricter regulations in all scenarios. In addition, the case of applying different regulations by area (in a region) is not always preferable to using unified regulations in the region. Alternatively, the output gap between the output redistribution case and the different regulations case is much higher than the gap between the unified regulation case and the different regulations case. In all scenarios, the present values of the output of the output redistribution case are also higher than the other cases. Conclusions The different regulations case and the unified regulation case are based on the model without capital transfer between areas, whereas the output redistribution case is based on the model with free capital transfer between areas. Although both models are extreme situations, the regions close to the without capital transfer situation possibly have an incentive to use the different regulations policy, depending on the emission target. The regions close to the situation with free capital transfer would probably prefer unified regulation.

scholarly journals Changes in flood damage with global warming on the eastern coast of Spain

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 2855-2877 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Cortès ◽  
Marco Turco ◽  
Philip Ward ◽  
Josep A. Sánchez-Espigares ◽  
Lorenzo Alfieri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Socioeconomic Scenarios ◽  
Damage Estimates

Abstract. Flooding is one of the main natural hazards in the world and causes huge economic and human impacts. Assessing the flood damage in the Mediterranean region is of great importance, especially because of its large vulnerability to climate change. Most past floods affecting the region were caused by intense precipitation events; thus the analysis of the links between precipitation and flood damage is crucial. The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood events with global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and taking into account different socioeconomic scenarios in two western Mediterranean regions, namely Catalonia and the Valencian Community. To do this, we analyse the relationship between heavy precipitation and flood-damage estimates from insurance datasets in those two regions. We consider an ensemble of seven regional climate model (RCM) simulations spanning the period 1976–2100 to evaluate precipitation changes and to drive a logistic model that links precipitation and flood-damage estimates, thus deriving statistics under present and future climates. Furthermore, we incorporate population projections based on five different socioeconomic scenarios. The results show a general increase in the probability of a damaging event for most of the cases and in both regions of study, with larger increments when higher warming is considered. Moreover, this increase is higher when both climate and population change are included. When population is considered, all the periods and models show a clearly higher increase in the probability of damaging events, which is statistically significant for most of the cases. Our findings highlight the need for limiting global warming as much as possible as well as the importance of including variables that consider change in both climate and socioeconomic conditions in the analysis of flood damage.

scholarly journals Economic Risk Assessment by Weather-Related Heat Stress Indices for Confined Livestock Buildings: A Case Study for Fattening Pigs in Central Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Günther Schauberger ◽  
Martin Schönhart ◽  
Werner Zollitsch ◽  
Stefan J. Hörtenhuber ◽  
Leopold Kirner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Farm Animals ◽  
Economic Risk ◽  
Gross Margin ◽  
Livestock Buildings ◽  
Livestock Farms

In the last decades farm animals kept in confined and mechanically ventilated livestock buildings are increasingly confronted with heat stress (HS) due to global warming. These adverse conditions cause a depression of animal health and welfare and a reduction of the performance up to an increase of the mortality. To facilitate sound management decisions, livestock farmers need relevant arguments, which quantify the expected economic risk and the corresponding uncertainty. The economic risk was determined for the pig fattening sector based on the probability of HS and the calculated decrease in the gross margin. The model calculation for confined livestock buildings showed, that HS indices calculated by easily available meteorological parameters can be used for assessment quantification of indoor HS, which is so far difficult to determine. These weather-related HS indices can be applied not only for an economic risk assessment but also for a weather-index based insurance for livestock farms. Based on the temporal trend between 1981 and 2017, a simple model was derived to assess the likelihood of HS for 2020 and 2030. Due to global warming, the return period for a 90-percentile HS index is reduced from 10 years in 2020 to 3-4 years in 2030. The economic impact of HS on livestock farms was calculated by the relationship between an HS index based on the temperature-humidity index (THI) and the reduction of the gross margin. From the likelihood of the HS and this economic impact function, the probability of the economic risk could be determined. The reduction of the gross margin for a 10 year return period was determined for 1980 with 0.27 € per year and animal place and increased by the 20-fold to 5.13 € per year and animal place in 2030.

scholarly journals On the Spatial Economic Impact of Global Warming

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus Desmet ◽  
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Economic Impact

scholarly journals A Study on Economic Impact on the European Sardine Fishery due to Continued Global Warming

10.5772/58877 ◽  
2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Dolores Garza-Gil ◽  
Manuel Varela-Lafuente ◽  
Gonzalo Caballero-Míguez ◽  
Julia Torralba-Cano
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Economic Impact

scholarly journals Bluetongue virus is ‘on-the-move’

2009 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Peter J Walker
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Bluetongue Virus ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Insect Vectors ◽  
The Past ◽  
Freedom From Disease ◽  
Summer Temperatures ◽  
Bluetongue Disease

Bluetongue virus is ?on-the-move?. The distribution of this important arthropod-borne pathogen of sheep and cattle is expanding rapidly, particularly in Europe, where its emergence and spread during the past decade have had severe economic consequences. The movement of bluetongue virus into new temperate European habitats appears to have been driven, at least in part, by global warming. Record summer temperatures, warmer winters and changes in precipitation patterns are believed to have provided the conditions necessary for more northerly seasonal spread, over-wintering and adaptation of the virus to new insect vectors. The emergence of bluetongue disease in Europe since 1998 has resulted in the deaths of more than two million sheep. The economic impact in France alone in 2006-07 was estimated to have already exceeded $1.4 billion, mostly in lost trade. These events have significant implications for Australia, where freedom from disease and favourable terms of trade rest on a potentially fragile ecological balance between viruses, hosts and vectors.

scholarly journals Economic Risk Assessment by Weather-Related Heat Stress Indices for Confined Livestock Buildings: A Case Study for Fattening Pigs in Central Europe

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 122
Author(s):  
Günther Schauberger ◽  
Martin Schönhart ◽  
Werner Zollitsch ◽  
Stefan J. Hörtenhuber ◽  
Leopold Kirner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Farm Animals ◽  
Economic Risk ◽  
Gross Margin ◽  
Livestock Buildings ◽  
Livestock Farms

In the last decades, farm animals kept in confined and mechanically ventilated livestock buildings have been increasingly confronted with heat stress (HS) due to global warming. These adverse conditions cause a depression of animal health and welfare and a reduction of the performance up to an increase in mortality. To facilitate sound management decisions, livestock farmers need relevant arguments, which quantify the expected economic risk and the corresponding uncertainty. The economic risk was determined for the pig fattening sector based on the probability of HS and the calculated decrease in gross margin. The model calculation for confined livestock buildings showed that HS indices calculated by easily available meteorological parameters can be used for assessment quantification of indoor HS, which has been difficult to determine. These weather-related HS indices can be applied not only for an economic risk assessment but also for weather-index based insurance for livestock farms. Based on the temporal trend between 1981 and 2017, a simple model was derived to assess the likelihood of HS for 2020 and 2030. Due to global warming, the return period for a 90-percentile HS index is reduced from 10 years in 2020 to 3–4 years in 2030. The economic impact of HS on livestock farms was calculated by the relationship between an HS index based on the temperature-humidity index (THI) and the reduction of gross margin. From the likelihood of HS and this economic impact function, the probability of the economic risk was determined. The reduction of the gross margin for a 10-year return period was determined for 1980 with 0.27 € per year per animal place and increased by 20-fold to 5.13 € per year per animal place in 2030.

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