scholarly journals Predicting fear and perceived health during the COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning: A cross-national longitudinal study

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0247997
Author(s):  
Stephanie Josephine Eder ◽  
David Steyrl ◽  
Michal Mikolaj Stefanczyk ◽  
Michał Pieniak ◽  
Judit Martínez Molina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Psychological Factors ◽  
Perceived Health ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Perceived Vulnerability ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Perceived Vulnerability To Disease

During medical pandemics, protective behaviors need to be motivated by effective communication, where finding predictors of fear and perceived health is of critical importance. The varying trajectories of the COVID-19 pandemic in different countries afford the opportunity to assess the unique influence of ‘macro-level’ environmental factors and ‘micro-level’ psychological variables on both fear and perceived health. Here, we investigate predictors of fear and perceived health using machine learning as lockdown restrictions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were introduced in Austria, Spain, Poland and Czech Republic. Over a seven-week period, 533 participants completed weekly self-report surveys which measured the target variables subjective fear of the virus and perceived health, in addition to potential predictive variables related to psychological factors, social factors, perceived vulnerability to disease (PVD), and economic circumstances. Viral spread, mortality and governmental responses were further included in the analysis as potential environmental predictors. Results revealed that our models could accurately predict fear of the virus (accounting for approximately 23% of the variance) using predictive factors such as worrying about shortages in food supplies and perceived vulnerability to disease (PVD), where interestingly, environmental factors such as spread of the virus and governmental restrictions did not contribute to this prediction. Furthermore, our results revealed that perceived health could be predicted using PVD, physical exercise, attachment anxiety and age as input features, albeit with smaller effect sizes. Taken together, our results emphasize the importance of ‘micro-level’ psychological factors, as opposed to ‘macro-level’ environmental factors, when predicting fear and perceived health, and offer a starting point for more extensive research on the influences of pathogen threat and governmental restrictions on the psychology of fear and health.

Macro/Micro Dynamics in South Africa: Why the Reconciliation Process Will Not Reduce Violence

2003 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 6-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingie Hovland
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Transitional Justice ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Truth Commissions ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
The People ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Reconciliation Process

The reconciliation process in South Africa has been hailed as an astounding example of a non-violent transition to democracy, and its Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) has subsequently served as the starting point for reflections on reconciliation, transitional justice and the possibility of truth commissions in other countries. This article suggests that it is necessary to examine South Africa's reconciliation process more critically, focusing on why it has not brought about a reduction in the high levels of violence. It is argued that the reconciliation process has failed in this respect - despite good intentions - because it has not managed to transform the macro/micro dynamic in South Africa, i.e. the interaction between macro-level divisions and micro-level tensions which have fed off each other throughout South Africa's history. Macro-level violence has included - and still includes - economic policies that generate wealth for a minority while perpetuating the production of poverty for the majority. Micro-level violence includes extremely high levels of violent incidents at an interpersonal and local level. The use of the concept ‘reconciliation’ in post-apartheid South Africa may in certain respects have served as opium for the people - opium that has enabled continued accommodation of the interaction between macro and micro-level violence in the country.

scholarly journals Ethics in Telehealth: Comparison between Guidelines and Practice-based Experience -the Case for Learning Health Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (01) ◽  
pp. 044-050
Author(s):  
Craig E. Kuziemsky ◽  
Inga Hunter ◽  
Shashi B. Gogia ◽  
Sriram lyenger ◽  
Gumindu Kulatunga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Association ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Care Delivery ◽  
Models Of Care ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Ethical Framework ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Example Variability ◽  
Ethics Guidelines

Summary Objectives: To understand ethical issues within the tele-health domain, specifically how well established macro level telehealth guidelines map with micro level practitioner perspectives. Methods: We developed four overarching issues to use as a starting point for developing an ethical framework for telehealth. We then reviewed telemedicine ethics guidelines elaborated by the American Medical Association (AMA), the World Medical Association (WMA), and the telehealth component of the Health Professions council of South Africa (HPCSA). We then compared these guidelines with practitioner perspectives to identify the similarities and differences between them. Finally, we generated suggestions to bridge the gap between ethics guidelines and the micro level use of telehealth. Results: Clear differences emerged between the ethics guidelines and the practitioner perspectives. The main reason for the differences were the different contexts where telehealth was used, for example, variability in international practice and variations in the complexity of patient-provider interactions. Overall, published guidelines largely focus on macro level issues related to technology and maintaining data security in patient-provider interactions while practitioner concern is focused on applying the guidelines to specific micro level contexts. Conclusions: Ethics guidelines on telehealth have a macro level focus in contrast to the micro level needs of practitioners. Work is needed to close this gap. We recommend that both telehealth practitioners and ethics guideline developers better understand healthcare systems and adopt a learning health system approach that draws upon different contexts of clinical practice, innovative models of care delivery, emergent data and evidence-based outcomes. This would help develop a clearer set of priorities and guidelines for the ethical conduct of telehealth.

scholarly journals How Complexity and Uncertainty Grew with Algorithmic Trading

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 499
Author(s):  
Martin Hilbert ◽  
David Darmon
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Algorithmic Trading ◽  
Theoretic Analysis ◽  
Learning Paradigm ◽  
Information Theoretic ◽  
Fourth Digit ◽  
Local Uncertainty ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Bid Ask Spreads

The machine-learning paradigm promises traders to reduce uncertainty through better predictions done by ever more complex algorithms. We ask about detectable results of both uncertainty and complexity at the aggregated market level. We analyzed almost one billion trades of eight currency pairs (2007–2017) and show that increased algorithmic trading is associated with more complex subsequences and more predictable structures in bid-ask spreads. However, algorithmic involvement is also associated with more future uncertainty, which seems contradictory, at first sight. On the micro-level, traders employ algorithms to reduce their local uncertainty by creating more complex algorithmic patterns. This entails more predictable structure and more complexity. On the macro-level, the increased overall complexity implies more combinatorial possibilities, and therefore, more uncertainty about the future. The chain rule of entropy reveals that uncertainty has been reduced when trading on the level of the fourth digit behind the dollar, while new uncertainty started to arise at the fifth digit behind the dollar (aka ‘pip-trading’). In short, our information theoretic analysis helps us to clarify that the seeming contradiction between decreased uncertainty on the micro-level and increased uncertainty on the macro-level is the result of the inherent relationship between complexity and uncertainty.

scholarly journals Predicting fear and perceived health during the COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning: A cross-national longitudinal study.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Josephine Eder ◽  
David Steyrl ◽  
Michał Stefańczyk ◽  
Michał Pieniak ◽  
Judit Martínez Molina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Perceived Health ◽  
Subjective Health ◽  
Perceived Threat ◽  
Protective Behaviors ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Interpersonal Factors ◽  
Governmental Response ◽  
Learning Analysis ◽  
Cross National

In times of medical pandemics, protective behaviors need to be motivated by effective communication, and finding predictors of perceived threat and subjective health is of importance. The varying trajectories of the COVID-19 pandemic in different countries present the opportunity to include the influence of environmental factors in such analyses. Here, we investigate viral spread, governmental responses and interpersonal differences as potential predictors of fear of the virus and perceived health. We identify interpersonal factors that are important predictors, whereas environmental conditions (case/death counts, governmental response, country of residence) do not add predictive value.Critically, our machine-learning analysis and the predictive nature of our models together with the finding that nationality does not contribute to predicting our target variables promises a good generalizability for Western cultures.

scholarly journals Schizophrenic public administration reform in Hungary. Tension between anti-NPM systemic and pro-NPM organizational reforms

2015 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 183-206
Author(s):  
Miklós Rosta
Keyword(s):  
Public Administration ◽  
Ideal Type ◽  
Development Programme ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Public Administration Reform ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Market Rules ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
The Ideal

The aim of the paper is to highlight the main characteristics of the recent Hungarian public administration reform, as well as to reveal the inconsistent nature of some of its elements and to describe the connected risks. The starting point of the article is the Magyary Zoltán public administration development programme. The reform steps are compared to the ideal type NPM approach. The Hungarian public administration reform can be characterized by strong centralization and the revitalization of Hungarian anti-liberal traditions at macro level, and by the support of the enhancement of market rules and management at micro level.

Improving XGBoost with Imagination Sampling

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-6
Author(s):  
Eric Holloway
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
General System ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Imagination Sampling is the usage of a person as an oracle for generating or improving machine learning models. Previous work demonstrated a general system for using Imagination Sampling for obtaining multibox models. Here, the possibility of importing such models as the starting point for further automatic enhancement is explored.

Varieties of non-obvious meaning in CL and CADS: from ‘hindsight post-dictability’ to sweet serendipity

Corpora ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 339-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Partington
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Corpus Linguistics ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Discourse Studies ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Special Relevance

In this paper, I want to examine the special relevance of (non)obviousness in corpus linguistics through drawing on case studies. The research discussion is divided into two parts. The first is an examination of (non)obviousness at the micro-level, that is, in lexico-grammatical analyses, whilst the second looks at the more macro-level of (non)obviousness on the plane of discourse. In the final sections, I will examine various types of non-obvious meaning one can come across in Corpus-assisted Discourse Studies (CADS), which range from: ‘I knew that all along (now)’ to ‘that's interesting’ to ‘I sensed that but didn't know why’ (intuitive impressions and corpus-assisted explanations) to ‘I never even knew I never knew that’ (serendipity or ‘non-obvious non-obviousness’, analogous to ‘unknown unknowns’).

Entrepreneurship Management at the Local Government Level: The Experience of the Cities for Entrepreneurs Program

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 388-407
Author(s):  
Patricio Gigli ◽  
◽  
Donatela Orsi ◽  
Marisel Martín Aramburú ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
National Level ◽  
Development Issue ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Local Government Level ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Government Level

This paper aims at describing the experience of the Cities for Entrepreneurs Program (Ciudades para Emprender or CPE) of the National Directorate of Community and Human Capital (which belongs to the SEPYME), National Ministry of Production. This paper starts from the premise that entrepreneurship takes place at the most micro level of the offer and, therefore, is a concept associated with the characteristics of the environment closest to that offer: the local territory. However, there is little history in the country of public policies relating the issue of entrepreneurship with the local management. That is why we take as a starting point the conceptualization of the chosen framework: local governments and the development issue, seen from the perspective of entrepreneurships. Moreover, an overview is given on the structural characteristics of municipalities in Argentina. In addition, some international experiences and attempts to promote entrepreneurship at a national level are analyzed. Finally, the Cities for Entrepreneurs Program (CPE) is outlined, based on a summary of the diagnoses of the Entrepreneurial Ecosystems of the selected cities and the tools used and their execution status at the time of publication of this paper.

Hybrid Design of Isonicotinic Acid Hydrazide Derivatives: Machine Learning Studies, Synthesis and Biological Evaluation of their Antituberculosis Activity

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-375
Author(s):  
Vasyl Kovalishyn ◽  
Diana Hodyna ◽  
Vitaliy O. Sinenko ◽  
Volodymyr Blagodatny ◽  
Ivan Semenyuta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Isonicotinic Acid ◽  
Acid Hydrazide ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Antitubercular Activity ◽  
Biological Evaluation ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Binary Classifiers ◽  
Synthesis And Biological Evaluation

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is an infection disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) bacteria. One of the main causes of mortality from TB is the problem of Mtb resistance to known drugs. Objective: The goal of this work is to identify potent small molecule anti-TB agents by machine learning, synthesis and biological evaluation. Methods: The On-line Chemical Database and Modeling Environment (OCHEM) was used to build predictive machine learning models. Seven compounds were synthesized and tested in vitro for their antitubercular activity against H37Rv and resistant Mtb strains. Results: A set of predictive models was built with OCHEM based on a set of previously synthesized isoniazid (INH) derivatives containing a thiazole core and tested against Mtb. The predictive ability of the models was tested by a 5-fold cross-validation, and resulted in balanced accuracies (BA) of 61–78% for the binary classifiers. Test set validation showed that the models could be instrumental in predicting anti- TB activity with a reasonable accuracy (with BA = 67–79 %) within the applicability domain. Seven designed compounds were synthesized and demonstrated activity against both the H37Rv and multidrugresistant (MDR) Mtb strains resistant to rifampicin and isoniazid. According to the acute toxicity evaluation in Daphnia magna neonates, six compounds were classified as moderately toxic (LD50 in the range of 10−100 mg/L) and one as practically harmless (LD50 in the range of 100−1000 mg/L). Conclusion: The newly identified compounds may represent a starting point for further development of therapies against Mtb. The developed models are available online at OCHEM http://ochem.eu/article/11 1066 and can be used to virtually screen for potential compounds with anti-TB activity.

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