SIMLR: Machine Learning inside the SIR Model for COVID-19 Forecasting

Accurate forecasts of the number of newly infected people during an epidemic are critical for making effective timely decisions. This paper addresses this challenge using the SIMLR model, which incorporates machine learning (ML) into the epidemiological SIR model. For each region, SIMLR tracks the changes in the policies implemented at the government level, which it uses to estimate the time-varying parameters of an SIR model for forecasting the number of new infections one to four weeks in advance. It also forecasts the probability of changes in those government policies at each of these future times, which is essential for the longer-range forecasts. We applied SIMLR to data from in Canada and the United States, and show that its mean average percentage error is as good as state-of-the-art forecasting models, with the added advantage of being an interpretable model. We expect that this approach will be useful not only for forecasting COVID-19 infections, but also in predicting the evolution of other infectious diseases.

Multicultural Education: Ukrainian Challenges

Ukraine is a multinational and multicultural country. Though Ukrainian scientists have studied the issue of multicultural education from different aspects, nevertheless, there is no special or ideal model of multicultural education. That is why we decided to monitor the students’ multicultural education state at secondary schools of Ukraine. In order to identify the state of multicultural education in Ukrainian schools we conducted an empirical study in schools of Cherkasy region among primary, secondary and senior level students. The main method was determined as questionnaire, which is provided for clarification of issues of national-patriotic and multicultural orientation. Accordingly, questionnaires that combined quantitative and qualitative data collection were offered to the 4th, 6th and 11th grade students in some schools in Uman and Uman district, covering 296 respondents. Thus, the monitoring of the state of multicultural education in Ukrainian school education has shown that the problem of multicultural upbringing of children and young people is addressed at the government level, relevant research is conducted, some aspects of multiculturalism are observed in educational programs of some subjects, but the level of multicultural education of students should be higher.

SUB-NATIONAL INNOVATION POLICY: A UNIVERSAL ENTITLEMENT TO EDUCATION GRANT IN SABANG, INDONESIA

This article studies a universal entitlement to education grant in Sabang that shows policy making at subnational government level in Indonesia. The policy is designed and implemented by Sabang municipality of Aceh province to help students at primary and secondary schools who would otherwise struggle with the cost of education. Desk study and semi-structured interviews were conducted with the major and high-ranking officials from related government departments in Sabang. The results show the central - local relations has not been easy to be understood by lower tier of governments. While the distribution of authorities between central and subnational government (such as: in education development functions) has not been well defined, the Sabang Education Grant (SEG) has been evidence of how a municipality government exercise the discretion and decision-making power. The transfer of authority and responsibility under the decentralization is instrumental in supporting the SEG policy formulation. The sub-national governments at special regions were given an authority to formulate policies to ensure all students have access to educational services. To implement this policy, Sabang municipality government regulate the operational procedures to implement the processes, define the technical guideline, establish the expert and management team as well as provide the tools to support the policy implementation.

Towards Building Direct Democratic Governance Through the Ward Committee System in South African Local Government

This chapter interrogates the ward committee system as an instrument in an institutionalised local government level to advance direct participatory governance. The ward committee has a constitutional mandate upon which accountability, democratization, community governance, and inclusive participation in the municipal decision-making is enhanced. The ward committee system was legislated to create a platform for community participation and enhance accountable local governance. Structuration theory has been used to engage with elements of representativity, powers, skills, functionality, access to information, influence in decision-making, and relationship with others structures as developed by Smith and de Visser. The chapter made use of various case studies to interrogate the role, potential, and challenges of the ward committee system in forging direct participatory governance.

United Kingdom Freedom of Information Act 2000, Local Government and Everyday Regimes of Practice

The United Kingdom’s Freedom of Information Act 2000 commenced in 2005 with the objectives of openness and transparency, accountability, better decision making and public involvement in decision making. However, there have been limited studies of its long-term impacts on government practices and how far the Act has delivered on its stated objectives, and even fewer studies into how Freedom of Information works in practice, especially at local government level. Addressing these gaps in existing knowledge, this research seeks to critically evaluate existing regimes of practices across local authorities. It seeks to identify the multiple practices surrounding the implementation of the 2000 Act, evaluate how these practices are reproduced, and generate lessons for practice and alternative modes of delivering Freedom of Information.

Digital Contact Tracing and COVID-19: Design, Deployment, and Current Use in Italy

The technological innovation of digital contact tracing (DCT) has certainly characterized the COVID-19 pandemic, as compared to the previous ones. Based on the first studies, considerable support was expected from smartphone applications (“apps”) for DCT. This commentary focuses on digital contact tracing. Its contributions are threefold: (a) Recall the initial expectations of these technologies and the state of diffusion. (b) Deal with the introduction of the app “Immuni” in Italy, while also highlighting the initiatives undertaken at the government level. (c) Report the state of diffusion and use of this App. The commentary ends by proposing some reflections on the continuation of this investigation in Italy.

Business crisis against COVID-19 pandemic background

The coronavirus infection COVID-19, which swept the world in early 2020, has caused crisis phenomena in all economic segments. Small and medium-sized businesses appeared the most affected. Based on the study and generalization of analytical materials and approximation of statistical data, the most significant problems of both economic and socio-psychological level affecting the business community were identified, solving them can improve the efficiency of the labor activity. The crisis of entrepreneurship is a reaction of society to the changes that took place in the business environment, it is associated with contradictions arising between the need to defeat the COVID-19 pandemic and the eagerness to save small and medium-sized businesses. It has been inferred that the intermediate consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have intensified the already existing negative effects of the crisis in the labor sector, which is most clearly manifested in the regional context. The dynamics of changes in the number of unemployed in the Russian Federation as a whole and in the Rostov region in particular is illustrated. The graph of changes in the number of registered small and medium-sized businesses in Russia is presented. Solving the problem requires a significant adjustment of the actions taken at the government level aimed at overcoming crisis situations both in the field of employment and unemployment, and support for entrepreneurship in general. Measures to solve the problems of the entrepreneurs and their employees have been proposed.

A Service Model for Self-Directed Learning of NEET Youth at the Local Government Level

Given the increasing value of lifelong learning, self-directed learning (SDL) has become increasingly relevant over time. In rural areas with limited service resources, the main approach to NEET-youth depicts them more as young people in need, and less as people with the potential for self-development and participation in lifelong learning. The growing importance of people’s return to education, flexible learning paths, and the need for quick adaptation and re-training in a rapidly changing society emphasizes the need to design service models for NEET-youth. This is in order to support their SDL skills, and indicate the service providers’ role throughout the process. The empirical study in Estonia was grounded on the Double Diamond service design method using quantitative data on the respondents’ readiness for SDL, and also qualitative data from service providers about their roles and the affordances of their services in supporting SDL skills. The model was tested with rural NEET-youth.

Legal and Financial Aspects of Housing Resources Management by Local Governments

<p>The article attempts to indicate the operational principles of local government units in connection with a public task related to housing resources. The assumption of the analysis was to narrow down the issues to only two aspects: legal and financial. First, issues related to the legal grounds of the so-called housing management at the local government level were discussed, and then, the methods of financing tasks in this field by local government units. It should be emphasized that, despite an attempt to refer to local government units operating at various levels, a special place for the discussion was given to the municipality, for which the legislator has reserved the greatest number of housing management tasks. In connection with the functioning of this local government level, the principles of financing the housing management were discussed, taking into account organizational and legal forms and their relationship with municipal budget funds as well as the possibilities of obtaining extra-budgetary funds.</p>