scholarly journals Impact of mobility restriction in COVID-19 superspreading events using agent-based model

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0248708
Author(s):  
L. L. Lima ◽  
A. P. F. Atman
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Epidemiological Modeling ◽  
Network Nodes ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Interesting Approach ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 pandemic is an immediate major public health concern. The search for the understanding of the disease spreading made scientists around the world turn their attention to epidemiological studies. An interesting approach in epidemiological modeling nowadays is to use agent-based models, which allow to consider a heterogeneous population and to evaluate the role of superspreaders in this population. In this work, we implemented an agent-based model using probabilistic cellular automata to simulate SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) dynamics using COVID-19 infection parameters. Differently to the usual studies, we did not define the superspreaders individuals a priori, we only left the agents to execute a random walk along the sites. When two or more agents share the same site, there is a probability to spread the infection if one of them is infected. To evaluate the spreading, we built the transmission network and measured the degree distribution, betweenness, and closeness centrality. The results displayed for different levels of mobility restriction show that the degree reduces as the mobility reduces, but there is an increase of betweenness and closeness for some network nodes. We identified the superspreaders at the end of the simulation, showing the emerging behavior of the model since these individuals were not initially defined. Simulations also showed that the superspreaders are responsible for most of the infection propagation and the impact of personal protective equipment in the spreading of the infection. We believe that this study can bring important insights for the analysis of the disease dynamics and the role of superspreaders, contributing to the understanding of how to manage mobility during a highly infectious pandemic as COVID-19.

scholarly journals Exploring the effectiveness of a COVID-19 contact tracing app using an agent-based model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonatan Almagor ◽  
Stefano Picascia
Keyword(s):  
High Rate ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Social ◽  
Behavioural Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
User Rate

AbstractA contact-tracing strategy has been deemed necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 following the relaxation of lockdown measures. Using an agent-based model, we explore one of the technology-based strategies proposed, a contact-tracing smartphone app. The model simulates the spread of COVID-19 in a population of agents on an urban scale. Agents are heterogeneous in their characteristics and are linked in a multi-layered network representing the social structure—including households, friendships, employment and schools. We explore the interplay of various adoption rates of the contact-tracing app, different levels of testing capacity, and behavioural factors to assess the impact on the epidemic. Results suggest that a contact tracing app can contribute substantially to reducing infection rates in the population when accompanied by a sufficient testing capacity or when the testing policy prioritises symptomatic cases. As user rate increases, prevalence of infection decreases. With that, when symptomatic cases are not prioritised for testing, a high rate of app users can generate an extensive increase in the demand for testing, which, if not met with adequate supply, may render the app counterproductive. This points to the crucial role of an efficient testing policy and the necessity to upscale testing capacity.

scholarly journals Exploring the effectiveness of a COVID-19 contact tracing app with an agent-based model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonatan Almagor ◽  
Stefano Picascia
Keyword(s):  
High Rate ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Social ◽  
Behavioural Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
User Rate

Abstract A contact-tracing strategy has been deemed necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 following the relaxation of lockdown measures. Using an agent-based model, we explore one of the technology-based strategies proposed, a contact-tracing smartphone app. The model simulates the spread of COVID-19 in a population of agents on an urban scale. Agents are heterogeneous in their characteristics and are linked in a multi-layered network representing the social structure - including households, friendships, employment and schools. We explore the interplay of various adoption rates of the contact-tracing app, different levels of testing capacity, and behavioural factors to assess the impact on the epidemic. Results suggest that a contact tracing app can contribute substantially to reducing infection rates in the population when accompanied by a sufficient testing capacity or when the testing policy prioritises symptomatic cases. As user rate increases, prevalence of infection decreases. With that, when symptomatic cases are not prioritised for testing, a high rate of app users can generate an extensive increase in the demand for testing, which, if not met with adequate supply, may render the app counterproductive. This points to the crucial role of an efficient testing policy and the necessity to upscale testing capacity.

scholarly journals Using Unstated Cases to Correct for COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak and Its Impact on Easing the Intervention for Qatar

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 463
Author(s):  
Narjiss Sallahi ◽  
Heesoo Park ◽  
Fedwa El Mellouhi ◽  
Mustapha Rachdi ◽  
Idir Ouassou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Gulf Region ◽  
Epidemiological Modeling ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Case Data

Epidemiological Modeling supports the evaluation of various disease management activities. The value of epidemiological models lies in their ability to study various scenarios and to provide governments with a priori knowledge of the consequence of disease incursions and the impact of preventive strategies. A prevalent method of modeling the spread of pandemics is to categorize individuals in the population as belonging to one of several distinct compartments, which represents their health status with regard to the pandemic. In this work, a modified SIR epidemic model is proposed and analyzed with respect to the identification of its parameters and initial values based on stated or recorded case data from public health sources to estimate the unreported cases and the effectiveness of public health policies such as social distancing in slowing the spread of the epidemic. The analysis aims to highlight the importance of unreported cases for correcting the underestimated basic reproduction number. In many epidemic outbreaks, the number of reported infections is likely much lower than the actual number of infections which can be calculated from the model’s parameters derived from reported case data. The analysis is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic for several countries in the Gulf region and Europe.

scholarly journals Examining the Impact of the Walking School Bus With an Agent-Based Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (7) ◽  
pp. 1196-1203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Yang ◽  
Ana Diez-Roux ◽  
Kelly R. Evenson ◽  
Natalie Colabianchi
Keyword(s):  
Agent Based Model ◽  
School Bus ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Walking School Bus ◽  
The Impact

Endogenous Uncertainty and the Dynamics of Constraints

2019 ◽  
pp. 246-260
Author(s):  
Paul Humphreys
Keyword(s):  
Utility Maximization ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Fitness Landscape ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Endogenous Uncertainty ◽  
The Commons ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Special Case

An agent- based model of social dynamics is introduced using a deformable fitness landscape, and it is shown that in certain clearly specifiable situations, strategies that are different from utility maximization outperform utility maximizers. Simulation results are presented and intuitive interpretations of the results provided. The situations considered occur when individuals' actions affect the outcomes for other agents and endogenous effects are dominant. The Tragedy of the Commons is merely a special case of this. Arguments are given that constraints are to be encouraged in some circumstances. The appropriate role of constraints in various types of society is assessed and their use justified in identifiable types of situations.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document