scholarly journals Using Unstated Cases to Correct for COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak and Its Impact on Easing the Intervention for Qatar

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 463
Author(s):  
Narjiss Sallahi ◽  
Heesoo Park ◽  
Fedwa El Mellouhi ◽  
Mustapha Rachdi ◽  
Idir Ouassou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Gulf Region ◽  
Epidemiological Modeling ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Case Data

Epidemiological Modeling supports the evaluation of various disease management activities. The value of epidemiological models lies in their ability to study various scenarios and to provide governments with a priori knowledge of the consequence of disease incursions and the impact of preventive strategies. A prevalent method of modeling the spread of pandemics is to categorize individuals in the population as belonging to one of several distinct compartments, which represents their health status with regard to the pandemic. In this work, a modified SIR epidemic model is proposed and analyzed with respect to the identification of its parameters and initial values based on stated or recorded case data from public health sources to estimate the unreported cases and the effectiveness of public health policies such as social distancing in slowing the spread of the epidemic. The analysis aims to highlight the importance of unreported cases for correcting the underestimated basic reproduction number. In many epidemic outbreaks, the number of reported infections is likely much lower than the actual number of infections which can be calculated from the model’s parameters derived from reported case data. The analysis is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic for several countries in the Gulf region and Europe.

scholarly journals Integrating public health policies in the epidemiological modeling of hepatitis C with LEHC tool: application in Austria

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrique Lopes ◽  
Ricardo Baptista-Leite ◽  
Diogo Franco ◽  
Roxana Pirker ◽  
Michael Gschwantler
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Hepatitis C ◽  
People Who Inject Drugs ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Epidemiological Modeling ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Elimination Goal ◽  
Adaptive Conjoint Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adequate Management

Summary Background Eliminating hepatitis C requires addressing issues other than medicines or therapies. Public health policies focused on the hepatitis C virus (HCV) must be emphasized and worked to know the impacts on its epidemiologic dynamics. This research aims to provide a tool to evaluate and simulate alternatives by redefining policies meeting specific needs in each country towards the HCV elimination target by 2030. Methods The development of a gamified model with 24 public health policies focused on HCV was conducted to evaluate the impact of measures in the disease epidemiologic dynamics. The Let’s End HepC (LEHC) project encompassed key populations (people who inject drugs [PWID], prisoners, blood products and remnant population) in Austria and other countries, presenting prospects for every year from 2019 to 2030. The LEHC epidemiological model comprised an integrated solution for HCV, with adaptive conjoint analysis (ACA) and Markov chains constituting its main processes. Results Despite Austria’s efforts towards achieving the HCV elimination goal by 2030, the LEHC model forecast quantitative analysis predicts that it is still not enough to meet the target; however, prospects are very optimistic if public health policies are adapted to the country’s needs, being possible to achieve the goal as early as 2026. Conclusion In Austria, the LEHC tool allowed to forecast the HCV elimination year anticipation to 2026, instead of being achieved after 2030. This target will only be valid if adequate management of the 24 public health policies focused on this pathology is further implemented.

scholarly journals Public Health Policies in the Akyem Abuakwa of Ghana (1850-1957)

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-157
Author(s):  
Samuel Adu Gyamfi ◽  
Phinehas Asiamah ◽  
Benjamin Dompreh Darkwa ◽  
Lucky Tomdi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Historical Study ◽  
Colonial Era ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Health History ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
The People ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Akyem Abuakwa is one of the largest states of the Akan ethnic group in Ghana. Notwithstanding its size and important contribution to Ghana’s development, historians have paid little attention in doing academic research on the health history of the people. Using a qualitative method of research, this paper does a historical study on public health policies in Akyem Abuakwa from the 1850s to 1957. We utilised documentary and non-documentary sources to discuss the various public health policies implemented in Akyem Abuakwa from the pre-colonial era to the colonial era. We examined the impact of the policies on the people of Akyem Abuakwa and the various challenges faced by the British colonial administration in their quest to implement public health policies.

scholarly journals First report of Klebsiella quasipneumoniae harboring blaKPC-2 in Saudi Arabia

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharif Hala ◽  
Chakkiath Paul Antony ◽  
Mohammed Alshehri ◽  
Abdulhakeem O. Althaqafi ◽  
Asim Alsaedi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Tertiary Hospital ◽  
Whole Genome ◽  
Drug Resistant ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Gulf Region ◽  
Carbapenem Resistant ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Klebsiella Spp

Abstract Background Nosocomial infections caused by multi-drug resistant Enterobacteriaceae are a global public health threat that ought to be promptly identified, reported, and addressed accurately. Many carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae-associated genes have been identified in Saudi Arabia but not the endemic Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemases (KPCs), which are encoded by blaKPC-type genes. KPCs are known for their exceptional spreading potential. Methods We collected n = 286 multi-drug resistant (MDR) Klebsiella spp. isolates as part of screening for resistant patterns from a tertiary hospital in Saudi Arabia between 2014 and 2018. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was carried out using both VITEK II and the broth microdilution of all collected isolates. Detection of resistance-conferring genes was carried out using Illumina whole-genome shotgun sequencing and PacBio SMRT sequencing protocols. Results A Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) Klebsiella quasipneumoniae subsp. similipneumoniae strain was identified as a novel ST-3510 carrying a blaKPC-2 carbapenemase encoding gene. The isolate, designated as NGKPC-421, was obtained from shotgun Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) surveillance of 286 MDR Klebsiella spp. clinical isolates. The NGKPC-421 isolate was collected from a septic patient in late 2017 and was initially misidentified as K. pneumoniae. The sequencing and assembly of the NGKPC-421 genome resulted in the identification of a putative ~ 39.4 kb IncX6 plasmid harboring a blaKPC-2 gene, flanked by transposable elements (ISKpn6-blaKPC-2–ISKpn27). Conclusion This is the first identification of a KPC-2-producing CRE in the Gulf region. The impact on this finding is of major concern to the public health in Saudi Arabia, considering that it is the religious epicenter with a continuous mass influx of pilgrims from across the world. Our study strongly highlights the importance of implementing rapid sequencing-based technologies in clinical microbiology for precise taxonomic classification and monitoring of antimicrobial resistance patterns.

scholarly journals Teledescante nº1: polyphony in time of plague

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Maurício De Bonis ◽  
Fábio Scucuglia
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Guiding Principle ◽  
Music Making ◽  
The Impact

This report contemplates an instrumental composition as a project for audiovisual production in social isolation, during the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on the problematization of the impact of the pandemic in music making, solutions were sought that were not only viable as an artistic result but that could also be projected in a purposeful and prospective way in times of humanitarian crisis, of dismal symmetry between capitalist neoliberalism and programmed neglect in public health policies. After a description of the research on the use of art in past pandemics as a guiding principle in the choice of materials, the audiovisual production is detailed. The piece was written in April 2020 as a result of the analysis of a Renaissance motet, which, in turn, was conceived as a tribute to a composer who had perished from the plague and as a palliative against the disease.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of adherence to Non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarafa A. Iyaniwura ◽  
Musa Rabiu ◽  
Jummy F. David ◽  
Jude D. Kong
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Indirect Transmission ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Final Epidemic Size ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Size Relation ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractAdherence to public health policies such as the non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented against COVID-19 plays a major role in reducing infections and controlling the spread of the diseases. In addition, understanding the transmission dynamics of the disease is also important in order to make and implement efficient public health policies. In this paper, we developed an SEIR-type compartmental model to assess the impact of adherence to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of the disease. Our model considers both direct and indirect transmission routes and stratifies the population into two groups: those that adhere to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and those that do not adhere to the NPIs. We compute the control reproduction number and the final epidemic size relation for our model and study the effect of different parameters of the model on these quantities. Our results show that direct transmission has more effect on the reproduction number and final epidemic size, relative to indirect transmission. In addition, we showed that there is a significant benefit in adhering to the COVID-19 NPIs.

scholarly journals Estimation of Tunisia COVID-19 infected cases based on mortality rate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ines Abdeljaoued-Tej ◽  
Marc Dhenain
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Pessimistic Scenario ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTEstimating the number of people affected by COVID-19 is crucial in deciding which public health policies to follow. The authorities in different countries carry out mortality counts. We propose that the mortality reported in each country can be used to create an index of the number of actual cases at a given time. The specificity of whether or not deaths are rapid or not by COVID-19 also affects the number of actual cases. The number of days between the declaration of illness and death varies between 12 and 18 days. For a delay of 18 days, and using an estimated mortality rate of 2%, the number of cases in April 2020 in Tunisia would be 5 580 people. The pessimistic scenario predicts 22 320 infected people, and the most optimistic predicts 744 (which is the number of reported cases on April 12, 2020). Modeling the occurrence of COVID-19 cases is critical to assess the impact of policies to prevent the spread of the virus.

scholarly journals Let's End HepC: Modelling Public Health Epidemiological Policies Applied to Hepatitis C in Spain

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrique Lopes ◽  
Ricardo Baptista-Leite ◽  
Diogo Franco ◽  
Miguel A. Serra ◽  
Amparo Escudero ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Hepatitis C ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
If Current ◽  
Elimination Goal ◽  
Adaptive Conjoint Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Background: The WHO has defined international targets toward the elimination of hepatitis C by 2030. Most countries cannot be on track to achieve this goal unless many challenges are surpassed. The Let's End HepC (LEHC) tool aims to contribute to the control of hepatitis C. The innovation of this tool combines the modelling of public health policies (PHP) focused on hepatitis C with epidemiological modelling of the disease, obtaining a unique result that allows to forecast the impact of policy outcomes. The model was applied to several countries, including Spain.Methods: To address the stated objective, we applied the “Adaptive Conjoint Analysis” for PHP decision-making and Markov Chains in the LEHC modelling tool. The tool also aims to be used as an element of health literacy for patient advocacy through gamification mechanisms and country comparability. The LEHC project has been conducted in several countries, including Spain. The population segments comprised in the project are: People Who Inject Drugs (PWID), prisoners, blood products, remnant population.Results: A total of 24 PHP related to hepatitis C were included in the LEHC project. It was identified that Spain had fully implemented 14 of those policies to control hepatitis C. According to LEHC's model forecast, the WHO's Hepatitis C elimination goal on reducing the number of patients living with Hepatitis C to 10% can be achieved in Spain by 2026 if current policies are maintained. The model estimates that the total population in Spain, by 2026, is expected to comprise 26,367 individuals living with hepatitis C. Moreover, if the 24 PHP considered for this study are fully implemented in Spain, the elimination goal may be achieved in 2024, with 29,615 individuals living with hepatitis C by that year.Conclusion: The findings corroborate the view that Spain has set great efforts in directing PHP toward Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination by 2030. However, there is still room for improvement, namely in further implementing 10 of the 24 PHP considered for the LEHC project. By maintaining the 14 PHP in force, the LEHC model estimates the HCV elimination in the country by 2026, and by 2024 if further measures are employed to control the disease.

scholarly journals Ethics of vaccination: measures used to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccination priorities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Millar ◽  
Yannis Gourtsoyannis ◽  
Angelina jayakumar
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Policy ◽  
International Development ◽  
Public Health Policy ◽  
Limited Range ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Freedom Of Movement ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Proposals for SARS-CoV-2 virus vaccination priorities in the UK and in many other countries are heavily influenced by epidemiological models, which use outcome measures such as deaths or hospitalisation. Limiting the values under consideration to those attributable to the direct effects of infection has the advantage of simplifying the models and the process of decision-making. However, the consequences of the pandemic extend beyond outcomes directly attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection. The alternative to vaccination (in addition the threat of illness and death) is restrictions on educational and work opportunities, access to services, recreational activities, affiliations and relationships with others, freedom of movement (including escaping abusive relationships), and other determinants of human experience. Capability theory gives emphasis to the freedoms that individuals have to express themselves (in doings and beings). Restrictions on freedoms restrict our capabilities. Capability theory has been used to provide a framework for the evaluation and comparison of international development approaches and in the evaluation of public health policy. There is a clustering of disadvantages associated with this pandemic that adds to pre-existing inequalities. Much of the disadvantage engendered in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is left out when public health policy is based on a limited range of metrics. Acknowledging the impact of policy across the range of human freedoms at both a national and international level has the potential to improve policy, facilitate the mitigation of direct and indirect adverse consequences, and improve public confidence in vaccine deployment strategies.

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