scholarly journals Predictors of unfavorable responses to therapy in rifampicin-sensitive pulmonary tuberculosis using an integrated approach of radiological presentation and sputum mycobacterial burden

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e0257647
Author(s):  
Narendran Gopalan ◽  
Vignes Anand Srinivasalu ◽  
Ponnuraja Chinnayan ◽  
Banurekha Velayutham ◽  
Adhin Bhaskar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Intensive Phase ◽  
Tb Treatment ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Chest X Ray ◽  
Minimal Disease ◽  
Culture Conversion

Introduction Despite the exalted status of sputum mycobacterial load for gauging pulmonary tuberculosis treatment and progress, Chest X-rays supplement valuable information for taking instantaneous therapeutic decisions, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Even though literature on individual parameters is overwhelming, few studies have explored the interaction between radiographic parameters denoting severity with mycobacterial burden signifying infectivity. By using a sophisticated approach of integrating Chest X-ray parameters with sputum mycobacterial characteristics, evaluated at all the three crucial time points of TB treatment namely pre-treatment, end of intensive phase and completion of treatment, utilizing the interactive Cox Proportional Hazards model, we aimed to precisely deduce predictors of unfavorable response to TB treatment. Materials and method We extracted de-identified data from well characterized clinical trial cohorts that recruited rifampicin-sensitive Pulmonary TB patients without any comorbidities, taking their first spell of anti-tuberculosis therapy under supervision and meticulous follow up for 24 months post treatment completion, to accurately predict TB outcomes. Radiographic data independently obtained, interpreted by two experienced pulmonologists was collated with demographic details and, sputum smear and culture grades of participants by an independent statistician and analyzed using the Cox Proportional Hazards model, to not only adjust for confounding factors including treatment effect, but also explore the interaction between radiological and bacteriological parameters for better therapeutic application. Results Of 667 TB patients with data available, cavitation, extent of involvement, lower zone involvement, smear and culture grade at baseline were significant parameters predisposing to an unfavorable TB treatment outcome in the univariate analysis. Reduction in radiological lesions in Chest X-ray by at least 50% at 2 months and 75% at the end of treatment helped in averting unfavorable responses. Smear and Culture conversion at the end of 2 months was highly significant as a predictor (p<0.001). In the multivariate analysis, the adjusted hazards ratios (HR) for an unfavorable response to TB therapy for extent of involvement, baseline cavitation and persistence (post treatment) were 1.21 (95% CI: 1.01–1.44), 1.73 (95% CI: 1.05–2.84) and 2.68 (95% CI: 1.4–5.12) respectively. A 3+ smear had an HR of 1.94 (95% CI: 0.81–4.64). Further probing into the interaction, among patients with 3+ and 2+ smears, HRs for cavitation were 3.26 (95% CI: 1.33–8.00) and 1.92 (95% CI: 0.80–4.60) while for >2 zones, were 3.05 (95% CI: 1.12–8.23) and 1.92 (95% CI: 0.72–5.08) respectively. Patients without cavitation, zonal involvement <2, and a smear grade less than 2+ had a better prognosis and constituted minimal disease. Conclusion Baseline Cavitation, Opacities occupying >2 zones and 3+ smear grade individually and independently forecasted a poorer TB outcome. The interaction model revealed that Zonal involvement confined to 2 zones, without a cavity and smear grade up to 2+, constituting “minimal disease”, had a better prognosis. Radiological clearance >50% along with smear conversion at the end of intensive phase of treatment, observed to be a reasonable alternative to culture conversion in predicting a successful outcome. These parameters may potentially take up key positions as stratification factors for future trials contemplating on shorter TB regimens.

scholarly journals Application of Cox Proportional Hazards Model in Case of Tuberculosis Patients in Selected Addis Ababa Health Centres, Ethiopia

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kabtamu Tolosie ◽  
M. K. Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Tb Treatment ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Health Centres ◽  
Patient Category

Introduction. Tuberculosis (TB) is a chronic infectious disease and mainly caused by mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB). It has been one of the major causes of mortality in Ethiopia. The objective of the study was to identify factors that affect the survival of the patients with tuberculosis who started treatment for tuberculosis.Methods. This was a retrospective study in six randomly selected health centres in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The data were obtained from medical records of TB patients registered from September 2012 to August 2013 and treated under directly observed treatment surgery (DOTS) strategy. Kaplan Meier plots, logrank tests, and Wilcoxon tests were used to assess the survival pattern. Cox proportional hazards model for multivariable analysis was discussed.Results. Out of the total 826 registered TB patients, 105 (12.71%) died during the study period and 712 (87.29%) were censored. Based on Kaplan Meier survival curves, logrank test, and Wilcoxon test, it was found that the patients had statistically significant differences in survival experience with respect to age, body weight at initiation of treatment, TB patient category, and HIV status. Multivariable Cox hazards regression analysis revealed that the covariates age, TB patient category, HIV, and age by HIV interaction were significant risk factors associated with death status in TB patients.Conclusion. Deaths of individuals with diseases especially HIV coinfected and nonnew TB cases were high. Therefore, this needs to strengthen the follow-up of patients with TB treatment from the day of anti-TB treatment initiation to completion days.

scholarly journals Risk factors associated with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events following percutaneous coronary intervention: a 10-year follow-up comparing random survival forest and Cox proportional-hazards model

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam Farhadian ◽  
Sahar Dehdar Karsidani ◽  
Azadeh Mozayanimonfared ◽  
Hossein Mahjub
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Cerebrovascular Events ◽  
Long Term Follow Up ◽  
Stent Length

Abstract Background Due to the limited number of studies with long term follow-up of patients undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), we investigated the occurrence of Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Events (MACCE) during 10 years of follow-up after coronary angioplasty using Random Survival Forest (RSF) and Cox proportional hazards models. Methods The current retrospective cohort study was performed on 220 patients (69 women and 151 men) undergoing coronary angioplasty from March 2009 to March 2012 in Farchshian Medical Center in Hamadan city, Iran. Survival time (month) as the response variable was considered from the date of angioplasty to the main endpoint or the end of the follow-up period (September 2019). To identify the factors influencing the occurrence of MACCE, the performance of Cox and RSF models were investigated in terms of C index, Integrated Brier Score (IBS) and prediction error criteria. Results Ninety-six patients (43.7%) experienced MACCE by the end of the follow-up period, and the median survival time was estimated to be 98 months. Survival decreased from 99% during the first year to 39% at 10 years' follow-up. By applying the Cox model, the predictors were identified as follows: age (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05), diabetes (HR = 2.17, 95% CI 1.29–3.66), smoking (HR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.46–3.98), and stent length (HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.11–2.75). The predictive performance was slightly better by the RSF model (IBS of 0.124 vs. 0.135, C index of 0.648 vs. 0.626 and out-of-bag error rate of 0.352 vs. 0.374 for RSF). In addition to age, diabetes, smoking, and stent length, RSF also included coronary artery disease (acute or chronic) and hyperlipidemia as the most important variables. Conclusion Machine-learning prediction models such as RSF showed better performance than the Cox proportional hazards model for the prediction of MACCE during long-term follow-up after PCI.

scholarly journals Elevated plasma growth and differentiation factor 15 predicts incident anemia in older adults aged 60 years and older

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuko Yamaguchi ◽  
Marta Zampino ◽  
Toshiko Tanaka ◽  
Stefania Bandinelli ◽  
Yusuke Osawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Differentiation Factor ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Anemia is common in older adults and associated with greater morbidity and mortality. The causes of anemia in older adults have not been completely characterized. Although elevated circulating growth and differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) has been associated with anemia in older adults, it is not known whether elevated GDF-15 predicts the development of anemia. Methods We examined the relationship between plasma GDF-15 concentrations at baseline in 708 non-anemic adults, aged 60 years and older, with incident anemia during 15 years of follow-up among participants in the Invecchiare in Chianti (InCHIANTI) Study. Results During follow-up, 179 (25.3%) participants developed anemia. The proportion of participants who developed anemia from the lowest to highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 was 12.9%, 20.1%, 21.2%, and 45.8%, respectively. Adults in the highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 had an increased risk of developing anemia (Hazards Ratio 1.15, 95% Confidence Interval 1.09, 1.21, P&lt;.0001) compared to those in the lower three quartiles in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, serum iron, soluble transferrin receptor, ferritin, vitamin B12, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and cancer. Conclusions Circulating GDF-15 is an independent predictor for the development of anemia in older adults.

scholarly journals Dementia Adjudication Triggers Associated With Increased Mortality for Older Australians: Evidence From ASPREE

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 161-161
Author(s):  
Jane Banaszak-Holl ◽  
Xiaoping Lin ◽  
Jing Xie ◽  
Stephanie Ward ◽  
Henry Brodaty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Service Planning ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cognitive Test ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Research Aims: This study seeks to understand whether those with dementia experience higher risk of death, using data from the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) clinical trial study. Methods: ASPREE was a primary intervention trial of low-dose aspirin among healthy older people. The Australian cohort included 16,703 dementia-free participants aged 70 years and over at enrolment. Participants were triggered for dementia adjudication if cognitive test results were poorer than expected, self-reporting dementia diagnosis or memory problems, or dementia medications were detected. Incidental dementia was adjudicated by an international adjudication committee using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria and results of a neuropsychological battery and functional measures with medical record substantiation. Statistical analyses used a cox proportional hazards model. Results: As previously reported, 1052 participants (5.5%) died during a median of 4.7 years of follow-up and 964 participants had a dementia trigger, of whom, 575 (60%) were adjucated as having dementia. Preliminary analyses has shown that the mortality rate was higher among participants with a dementia trigger, regardless of dementia adjudication outcome, than those without (15% vs 5%, Χ2 = 205, p &lt;.001). Conclusion: This study will provide important analyses of differences in the hazard ratio for mortality and causes of death among people with and without cognitive impairment and has important implications on service planning.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Changes on World Stock Exchanges in Connection with the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. Survival Analysis Methods

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 121
Author(s):  
Beata Bieszk-Stolorz ◽  
Krzysztof Dmytrów
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Analysis Methods ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier

The aim of our research was to compare the intensity of decline and then increase in the value of basic stock indices during the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The survival analysis methods used to assess the risk of decline and chance of rise of the indices were: Kaplan–Meier estimator, logit model, and the Cox proportional hazards model. We observed the highest intensity of decline in the European stock exchanges, followed by the American and Asian plus Australian ones (after the fourth and eighth week since the peak). The highest risk of decline was in America, then in Europe, followed by Asia and Australia. The lowest risk was in Africa. The intensity of increase was the highest in the fourth and eleventh week since the minimal value had been reached. The highest odds of increase were in the American stock exchanges, followed by the European and Asian (including Australia and Oceania), and the lowest in the African ones. The odds and intensity of increase in the stock exchange indices varied from continent to continent. The increase was faster than the initial decline.

scholarly journals Association between milk and yogurt intake and mortality: a community-based cohort study (Yamagata study)

BMC Nutrition ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Akiko Nakanishi ◽  
Erika Homma ◽  
Tsukasa Osaki ◽  
Ri Sho ◽  
Masayoshi Souri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Milk Intake ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier

Abstract Background Dairy products are known as health-promoting foods. This study prospectively examined the association between milk and yogurt intake and mortality in a community-based population. Methods The study population comprised of 14,264 subjects aged 40–74 years who participated in an annual health checkup. The frequency of yogurt and milk intake was categorized as none (< 1/month), low (< 1/week), moderate (1–6/week), and high (> 1/day) intake. The association between yogurt and milk intake and total, cardiovascular, and cancer-related mortalities was determined using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results During the follow-up period, there were 265 total deaths, 40 cardiovascular deaths and 90 cancer-related deaths. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the total mortality in high/moderate/low yogurt intake and moderate/low milk intake groups was lower than that in none group (log-rank, P < 0.01). In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis adjusted for possible confounders, the hazard ratio (HR) for total mortality significantly decreased in high/moderate yogurt intake group (HR: 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.42–0.91 for high intake, HR: 0.70, 95%CI: 0.49–0.99 for moderate intake) and moderate milk intake group (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.46–0.97) compared with the none yogurt and milk intake groups. A similar association was observed for cancer-related mortality, but not for cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions Our study showed that yogurt and milk intake was independently associated with a decrease in total and cancer-related mortalities in the Japanese population.

scholarly journals Clinical impact of regression from sustained to paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF registry

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Fujino ◽  
H Ogawa ◽  
S Ikeda ◽  
K Doi ◽  
Y Hamatani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Death ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Clinical Impact ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cardiac Events ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Adverse Cardiac Events

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) commonly progresses from paroxysmal type to sustained type in the natural course of the disease, and we previously demonstrated that the progression of AF was associated with increased risk of clinical adverse events. There are some patients, though less frequently, who regress from sustained to paroxysmal AF, but the clinical impact of the regression of AF remains unknown. Purpose We sought to investigate whether regression from sustained to paroxysmal AF is associated with better clinical outcomes. Methods Using the dataset of the Fushimi AF Registry, patients who were diagnosed as sustained (persistent or permanent) AF at baseline were studied. Conversion of sustained AF to paroxysmal AF during follow-up was defined as regression of AF. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were defined as the composite of cardiac death, stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure (HF). Event rates were compared between the patients with and without regression of AF. In patients with sustained AF at baseline, predictors of MACE were identified using Cox proportional hazards model. Results Among 2,253 patients who were diagnosed as sustained AF at baseline, regression of AF was observed in 9.0% (202/2,253, 2.0 per 100 patient-years) during a median follow-up of 4.0 years. Of these, 24.3% (49/202, 4.6 per 100 patient-years) of the patients finally recurred to sustained AF during follow-up. The proportion of asymptomatic patients was lower in patients with regression of AF than those without (with vs without regression; 49.0% vs 69.5%, p&lt;0.01). The percentage of beta-blocker use at baseline was similar between the two groups (37.2% vs 33.8%, p=0.34). The prevalence of patients who underwent catheter ablation or electrical cardioversion during follow-up was higher in patients with regression of AF (catheter ablation: 15.8% vs 5.5%; p&lt;0.01, cardioversion: 4.0% vs 1.4%; p&lt;0.01, respectively). The rate of MACE was significantly lower in patients with regression of AF as compared with patients who maintained sustained AF (3.7 vs 6.2 per 100 patient-years, log-rank p&lt;0.01). Figure shows the Kaplan-Meier curves for MACE, cardiac death, hospitalization for heart failure, and stroke. In patients with sustained AF at baseline, multivariable Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that regression of AF was an independent predictor of lower MACE (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.28 to 0.88, p=0.02), stroke (HR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.88, p=0.02), and hospitalization for HF (HR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.85, p=0.01). Conclusion Regression from sustained to paroxysmal AF was associated with a lower incidence of adverse cardiac events. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Inter-pregnancy interval and later pediatric cardiovascular health of the offspring – a population-based cohort study

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Majdi Imterat ◽  
Tamar Wainstock ◽  
Eyal Sheiner ◽  
Gali Pariente
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cardiovascular Morbidity ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Inter Pregnancy Interval

Abstract Recent evidence suggests that a long inter-pregnancy interval (IPI: time interval between live birth and estimated time of conception of subsequent pregnancy) poses a risk for adverse short-term perinatal outcome. We aimed to study the effect of short (<6 months) and long (>60 months) IPI on long-term cardiovascular morbidity of the offspring. A population-based cohort study was performed in which all singleton live births in parturients with at least one previous birth were included. Hospitalizations of the offspring up to the age of 18 years involving cardiovascular diseases and according to IPI length were evaluated. Intermediate interval, between 6 and 60 months, was considered the reference. Kaplan–Meier survival curves were used to compare the cumulative morbidity incidence between the groups. Cox proportional hazards model was used to control for confounders. During the study period, 161,793 deliveries met the inclusion criteria. Of them, 14.1% (n = 22,851) occurred in parturient following a short IPI, 78.6% (n = 127,146) following an intermediate IPI, and 7.3% (n = 11,796) following a long IPI. Total hospitalizations of the offspring, involving cardiovascular morbidity, were comparable between the groups. The Kaplan–Meier survival curves demonstrated similar cumulative incidences of cardiovascular morbidity in all groups. In a Cox proportional hazards model, short and long IPI did not appear as independent risk factors for later pediatric cardiovascular morbidity of the offspring (adjusted HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.80–1.18; adjusted HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.83–1.37, for short and long IPI, respectively). In our population, extreme IPIs do not appear to impact long-term cardiovascular hospitalizations of offspring.

A promising predictor of mortality— A cohort study (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji Ha Ling
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Poor Prognosis ◽  
Medical Information ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Clinical Biomarker ◽  
Secondary Result

UNSTRUCTURED Severe inflammation leads to poor prognosis for intensive care unit hospitalized patients. The is a biomarker used to monitor inflammation and immune response, which can predict poor prognosis of various diseases. However, it is unclear whether NLR is associated with all-cause mortality in ICU patients. This study investigated the correlation between MLR and ICU results. Extract clinical data from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database, which contains health data of more than 50,000 patients. The main result was 30-day mortality, and the secondary result was 90-day mortality. Use the Cox proportional hazards model to reveal the association between MLR and results. Multivariable analyses were used to control for confounders. NLR is a promising clinical biomarker, which can be used as a available predictor of ICU mortality.

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