scholarly journals Frequency analysis of annual one day to five consecutive days maximum rainfall for Gandak river basin

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shivika Singla ◽  
Raktim Halder ◽  
Rakesh Khosa ◽  
Rumani Singla ◽  
Rudraksh Rajeev
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Frequency Estimation ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Thiessen Polygon ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
Arc Gis ◽  
Best Fit

The present study has been conducted for rainfall intensity and frequency estimation for the Gandak basin, a region prone to high floods with an unrealized and unexplored hydro-potential. The two popular gridded precipitation datasets i.e.: (1) APHRODITE, and (2) IMD, for the years 1969-2005, has been used to calculate the mean basin precipitation through the Thiessen polygon method on the ARC-GIS interface. This computed data was used to find out the 1-day, 2-day to 5-day consecutive maximum precipitation series and hence fitted into various well-known probability distribution functions viz., Normal, Gamma, Exponential, etc. According to the best fit data in these functions, the quantiles were determined corresponding to a return period of 2, 10, 20, 25, 50 and 100 years. The two widely used tests: Chi-square Test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test were employed to further check the goodness of fit of the series in the distributions. The results reveal that the best fit for 1-day was achieved with the normal distribution, for 2-day with GEV and with GPAR for the remaining maximum consecutive days rainfall. Such studies have thus proven to be substantially facilitative in planning for the safe and economic design of various engineered structures such as bridges, culverts, levees, canals, irrigation and drainage works and effective reservoir management. Keywords: Floods, Frequency, Hydrology, Probability Distribution, Rainfall.

Prediction of Haemoglobin Level by Some Probability Distribution

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-88
Author(s):  
Govinda Prasad Dhungana ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Sapkota
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Continuous Variable ◽  
Hemoglobin Level ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Two Parameters ◽  
Best Fit

 Hemoglobin level is a continuous variable. So, it follows some theoretical probability distribution Normal, Log-normal, Gamma and Weibull distribution having two parameters. There is low variation in observed and expected frequency of Normal distribution in bar diagram. Similarly, calculated value of chi-square test (goodness of fit) is observed which is lower in Normal distribution. Furthermore, plot of PDFof Normal distribution covers larger area of histogram than all of other distribution. Hence Normal distribution is the best fit to predict the hemoglobin level in future.

Temporal and spatial variations in annual rainfall distribution in Erbil province

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-67
Author(s):  
Tariq H Karim ◽  
Dawod R Keya ◽  
Zahir A Amin
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Probability Distribution Functions ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Tests ◽  
Annual Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Best Fit

This study aimed to determine the best fit probability distribution of annual maximum rainfall using data from nine stations within Erbil province using different statistical analyses. Nine commonly used probability distribution functions, namely Normal, Lognormal (LN), one-parameter gamma (1P-G), 2P-G, 3P-G, Log Pearson, Weibull, Pareto, and Beta, were assessed. On the basis of maximum overall score, obtained by adding individual point scores from three selected goodness-of-fit tests, the best fit probability distribution was identified. Results showed that the 2P-G distribution and LN distribution were the best fit probability distribution functions for annual rainfall for the region. The analysis of annual rainfall records in Erbil city spanning from 1964 to 2013, covering three periods, also revealed significant temporal changes in the shape and scale parameter patterns of the fitted gamma distribution. Based on the reliable annual rainfall data in the region, the shape and scale parameters were then regionalized, hence it is possible to find the parameter values for any desired location within the study area. The Mann–Kendall test results indicated that there was a decreasing trend in rainfall over most of the study area in recent decades.

scholarly journals A best-fit probability distribution for the estimation of rainfall in northern regions of Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 432-440 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. T. Amin ◽  
M. Rizwan ◽  
A. A. Alazba
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Type Iii ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Tests ◽  
Pearson Type ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Best Fit

AbstractThis study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual maximum rainfall based on a twenty-four-hour sample in the northern regions of Pakistan using four probability distributions: normal, log-normal, log-Pearson type-III and Gumbel max. Based on the scores of goodness of fit tests, the normal distribution was found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Mardan rainfall gauging station. The log-Pearson type-III distribution was found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the rest of the rainfall gauging stations. The maximum values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best-fit probability distributions and can be used by design engineers in future research.

scholarly journals WIND SPEED ANALYSIS AT IKEJA, NIGERIA USING THE CONVENTIONAL PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
OLUSEYI OGUNSOLA ◽  
OGUNSOLA OSAGIEDE
Keyword(s):  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
Anderson Darling ◽  
Von Mises ◽  
Best Fit

<p>The wind energy potential at Ikeja (Lat. 6.35 °N; Long. 3.20 °E), Nigeria was statistically analyzed using three of the mostly utilized conventional Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) in order to determine which of these distributions would give the best means of analysis for wind in this particular location. The best fit test for these PDFs were determined from Akaike Information Criteria, Bayesian Information Criteria, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Cramer-von Mises statistics, Anderson-Darling Statistic, Mean Square Error and Chi-Square Test using Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Method of Moments as parameter estimates. The Weibull distribution gave the best fit in this location.</p>

scholarly journals WIND SPEED ANALYSIS AT IKEJA, NIGERIA USING THE CONVENTIONAL PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 20-32
Author(s):  
OLUSEYI OGUNSOLA ◽  
OFURE OSAGIEDE
Keyword(s):  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
Anderson Darling ◽  
Von Mises ◽  
Best Fit

The wind energy potential at Ikeja (Lat. 6.35 N; Long. 3.20 E), Nigeria was statistically analyzed using three of the mostly utilized conventional Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) in order to determine which of these distributions would give the best means of analysis for wind in this particular location. The best fit test for these PDFs were determined from Akaike Information Criteria, Bayesian Information Criteria, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Cramer-von Mises statistics, Anderson-Darling Statistic, Mean Square Error and Chi-Square Test using Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Method of Moments as parameter estimates. The Weibull distribution gave the best fit in this location.

scholarly journals Analysis of Annual Maximum Rainfall for Frequency Distribution to Determine the Best-fitted Probability Distribution for Different Sites in Pakistan.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tasir khan ◽  
Yejuan Wang ◽  
Mohammad Anwar
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Annual Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Peak Weight

Abstract In the project of irrigation and addition structure of hydraulic, it is important to assess the specific probability of extreme rainfall. The novelty of this study is the use of KS, Chi-square, root mean square error (RMSE), and peak weight root means square error (PWRMSE) to evaluate the fit theoretical and Empirical distributions. Thirty-seven years of meteorological data from 1980 to 2017, the frequency analysis of the annual maximum rainfall in 10 regions of Pakistan was conducted. Used eight formulas to predict the annual return period of the maximum hourly precipitation every year. Five different probability distribution functions (PDF) are used to predict the probability distribution of the annual maximum hourly rainfall. Use the chi-square test and Kolmogorov- Smirnov to assess the goodness of fit. It shows that the log-logistics distribution is the overall best-fitting PDF of the annual maximum hourly rainfall in most areas of Pakistan. Besides, the peak weight relative mean square error and root mean square error goodness of fit test indicators both indicate that most suitable distribution of the probability function of all stations analysis is similar. The value of root means square error (RMSE) is almost always smaller than peak weight root means square error (PWRMSE). This is due to the higher weighting of value above the average value in the PWRMSE goodness of fit index, while for the RMSE goodness of fit index individual value has an equal weight.

scholarly journals Crop Planning of the Warangal District of Telangana State using Probability Distribution of 40 Years Rainfall Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 8539-8546
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Type I ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Crop Planning

Rain is a major component of the water cycle that deposits most of the fresh water on the earth. The determination of the frequency of occurrence of extreme hydrological events is a prerequisite for planning and execution of many water resource projects. A comprehensive statistical analysis on annual, monthly and seasonal rainfall for Warangal District, Telangana was performed using rainfall data for 40 years (1962-2001). The current investigation was conducted with the ultimate aim of determining the type of Probability distribution that best fits the rainfall data of that particular area. The plotting position and probabilistic methods of probability distribution functions were used for analysis of rainfall data. Rainfall magnitude were evaluated for different return periods. As well as the rainfall pattern of that area has been studied with help of standard deviation and co-efficient of variation. The difference in results obtained from the methods of plotting position were found to be insignificant. Chi-square test was used to measure the Goodness of fit for the seasonal and monthly rainfall. Gumbel’s (Extreme value type-I) method and Normal method was found to be the best method of distribution for the rainfall data of this region. A detailed study was conducted on the crop planning of this region. Rainfall amount is decreasing gradually due to urbanization, global climatic change and hence a decrease in crop productivity. Despite the growth in percentage of gross-irrigated area over Rain-fed farming, Farmers are still rainfall dependent. Crop planning is done with the average effective rainfall of Warangal. Economic analysis is carried out for the crops cultivated in this region and farmers get 23% increase in their yield according to the rates available in Warangal market.

scholarly journals Genetic polymorphisms of fecundity genes in Watish Sudanese desert sheep

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 614-621
Author(s):  
Sara E. Ibrahim Mohamed ◽  
Romaz M. Ahmed ◽  
Khaleel I. Z. Jawasreh ◽  
M. A. M. Salih ◽  
Dalia Mursi Abdelhalim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bone Morphogenetic Protein ◽  
Litter Size ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Association Testing ◽  
Genotype Frequencies ◽  
Protein Receptor ◽  
Morphogenetic Protein ◽  
Growth Differentiation Factor 9 ◽  
Chi Square Test

Background and Aim: The Watish sheep is a strain of desert sheep of smaller size compared to other desert sheep ecotypes, and there is anecdotal evidence that it is endowed with high litter size. The present study was designed for screening for polymorphisms in the known fecundity genes (bone morphogenetic protein receptor type 1B A<G in exon 6, bone morphogenetic protein 15 (BMP15) (FecXB, FecXG, FecXH, and FecXI) in exon2, growth differentiation factor 9 (GDF9) – G1 in exon1 and G8 in exon2 and PRLG<A in intron2) and their association with litter size in Watish. Materials and Methods: The study involved 156 Watish ewes of 2-6 years of age, along with data on litter size in the first, second, and third parity from Sinnar state and contiguous Blue Nile State. Genomic DNA was isolated and genotyped using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism. Allele and genotype frequencies were calculated by direct counting. Chi-square test for goodness of fit was performed for agreement with Hardy-Weinberg expectations and association testing. Results: The results demonstrated that all individuals were non-carriers for the target mutations of FecB, BMP15 (FecXB, FecXH, and FecXI), and GDF9-G8. With regard to the GDF9-G1 gene, the genotypic frequencies were 0.07% (G+) and 0.93% (++), in FecXG gene they were 0.993% (++) and 0.006% (B+), in PRL gene 0.516(++), 0.347(B+), and 0.137(BB). The Chi-square test showed a non-significant association between ewe's type of birth and the detected mutations genotypes. Conclusion: These results preliminarily indicated that GDF9-G1, BMP15 (FecXG), and PRL genes might have had some contribution for improving litter size in Watish Sudanese sheep. However, further studies using larger samples are needed to detect the effects of those mutations on Watish sheep litter size.

scholarly journals Digitization of Educational Technology Centres for Teaching Electrical and Electronics Technology in Colleges of Education in North Eastern Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 199-207
Author(s):  
Dauda Moses ◽  
Nasiru Bello Mohammed ◽  
Amos Danlami Agbu ◽  
Lumo Adams Gainaka
Keyword(s):  
Educational Technology ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
National Commission ◽  
Colleges Of Education ◽  
School Students ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Public School Students ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
Descriptive Survey

Abstract The purpose of this study was to assess the level of digitization of Educational Technology Centres for teaching electrical and electronics technology in Colleges of Education in North Eastern Nigeria in order to provide information that will help solve problems of incompetence of public school students in Information and Communication Technology (ICT). The study, guided by two research questions and two hypotheses was conducted in six Colleges of Education in North Eastern Nigeria using descriptive survey research design. The sample of the study was 50 comprising of 15 non-teaching Educational Technology Centres staff and 35 Electrical and Electronics Technology lecturers from five colleges of education in North Eastern Nigeria. Checklist containing 103 expected digital facilities based on National Commission for Colleges of Education (NCCE) minimum standard for Educational Technology Facilities in Colleges of Education in North Eastern Nigeria was used as instrument for data collection. Respondents were required to fill in observed facilities in the required column. Arithmetic percentage and Chi–square test of goodness-of-fit and were used determine the extent of digitization of the Educational Technology Centres in Colleges of Education in North Eastern Nigeria. Findings of the study revealed among others that analog technologies has higher number of frequency counts compared to digital technologies, hence there was low digitization of hardware facilities in Educational Technology Centres in Colleges of Education in North Eastern Nigeria. The study therefore concluded that Educational Technology Centres in Colleges of Education in North Eastern Nigeria were not digitized for instructional purposes; therefore, Government should digitize Educational Technology Centres in Colleges of Education in North Eastern Nigeria by adequately providing both digital hard and soft ware facilities.

scholarly journals Estimating the Best-Fitted Probability Distribution for Monthly Maximum Temperature at the Sylhet Station in Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-67
Author(s):  
Rashidul Hasan Rashidul Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Tests ◽  
Anderson Darling ◽  
Log Normal

The estimation of a suitable probability model depends mainly on the features of available temperature data at a particular place. As a result, existing probability distributions must be evaluated to establish an appropriate probability model that can deliver precise temperature estimation. The study intended to estimate the best-fitted probability model for the monthly maximum temperature at the Sylhet station in Bangladesh from January 2002 to December 2012 using several statistical analyses. Ten continuous probability distributions such as Exponential, Gamma, Log-Gamma, Beta, Normal, Log-Normal, Erlang, Power Function, Rayleigh, and Weibull distributions were fitted for these tasks using the maximum likelihood technique. To determine the model’s fit to the temperature data, several goodness-of-fit tests were applied, including the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test, and Chi-square test. The Beta distribution is found to be the best-fitted probability distribution based on the largest overall score derived from three specified goodness-of-fit tests for the monthly maximum temperature data at the Sylhet station.

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