Analysis of Annual Maximum Rainfall for Frequency Distribution to Determine the Best-fitted Probability Distribution for Different Sites in Pakistan.

In the project of irrigation and addition structure of hydraulic, it is important to assess the specific probability of extreme rainfall. The novelty of this study is the use of KS, Chi-square, root mean square error (RMSE), and peak weight root means square error (PWRMSE) to evaluate the fit theoretical and Empirical distributions. Thirty-seven years of meteorological data from 1980 to 2017, the frequency analysis of the annual maximum rainfall in 10 regions of Pakistan was conducted. Used eight formulas to predict the annual return period of the maximum hourly precipitation every year. Five different probability distribution functions (PDF) are used to predict the probability distribution of the annual maximum hourly rainfall. Use the chi-square test and Kolmogorov- Smirnov to assess the goodness of fit. It shows that the log-logistics distribution is the overall best-fitting PDF of the annual maximum hourly rainfall in most areas of Pakistan. Besides, the peak weight relative mean square error and root mean square error goodness of fit test indicators both indicate that most suitable distribution of the probability function of all stations analysis is similar. The value of root means square error (RMSE) is almost always smaller than peak weight root means square error (PWRMSE). This is due to the higher weighting of value above the average value in the PWRMSE goodness of fit index, while for the RMSE goodness of fit index individual value has an equal weight.

Study on the Suitability of Rainfall Intensity Formula and Intensity Duration Frequency Curve (IDF) in the Campus Area of Universitas Brawijaya, Malang

Rainfall intensity known as an essential variable in rainfall-runoff transformation. Flood events occurred in 2017 at Brawijaya University campus caused by high intensity and landuse change in campus's internal and external environment. The study aims to examine performance of several empirical formulas in estimating rainfall intensity, investigating characteristic of each empirical formula’s contant due to varying return period (Tr), and determining appropriate Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curve. The formula of Sherman, Talbot, and Ishiguro was employed to obtain empirical intensity, while intensity on varying return period was calculated using Log Pearson Type III. The proposed rainfall intensity formula was selected through comparison between empirical intensity with those from observation according to criteria of relative error (KR), Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Peak Weight Root Mean Square Error (PWRMSE). The Sherman formula showed best performance in estimating rainfall intensity as indicated by low value of KR and PWRMSE, followed by NSE close to one. The constant of empirical formula “a” was directly proportional with increasing of Tr; conversely, constant “b” and “n” were inverse with Tr. The validation result of Sherman formula demonstrated that the formula showed good reliability, thus recommended to estimate intensity and IDF curve in the study area.

The Combustion Characteristics of Waste Liquor from Renewable Plant-Derived Chemical Polyol Processing

An experimental study was carried out to investigate the combustion characteristics of plant-derived polyol liquor waste using thermogravimetric analyzer and vertical tube furnace tests. The research results showed that the waste liquor combustion reaction comprised four processes: evaporation, pyrolysis, combustion, and inorganic salt reaction, and that a wave peak exists for each process. The pyrolysis process, which is the most violent reaction, exhibited the maximum peak weight-loss rate and weight-loss ratio and had the lowest activation energy and frequency factor. The peak weight-loss rate of inorganic salt reaction process was less than that during the combustion process, but sodium alkali has catalytic effect at high temperature, which makes the activation energy and the frequency factor of inorganic salt reaction process less than that of the combustion process. The ignition temperature of the waste liquor in the vertical tube furnace was lower than the temperature in the thermogravimetric analyzer. The ignition temperature of pyrolysis volatiles measured in a vertical tube furnace was less than 700 °C but the ignition temperature of carbon combustion as measured with TG – DTG was 718 °C. When the temperature inside vertical tube furnace was higher than 800 °C, the waste liquor combustion process becomes almost instantaneous (about 8 s) and is violent, which produces more residual carbon content in the combustion products as a longer holding time is necessary to ensure that the reaction is completed.

Early growth and carotid intima-media thickness at midlife: Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort study

Background Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) reflects atherogenesis and is a strong predictor of cardiovascular diseases. Although cardiovascular diseases have been shown to originate in foetal life and childhood, the information on the contribution of early growth to CIMT in adulthood remains limited. Purpose To assess the influence of early growth patterns on CIMT in midlife. Methods A subpopulation of the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 took part in follow-up, including CIMT evaluation by ultrasound (n=1155) at the age of 46 years. Maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) was self-reported and birth weight and gestational age were measured after delivery. BMI growth curves were modelled based on frequent anthropometric measurements in infancy and childhood. Peak weight and height velocity in infancy (0–2 years of age, n=637) as well as age and BMI at adiposity peak (AP, mean age 9 months, n=461) and at adiposity rebound (AR, mean age 5.8 years, n=562) were established. Results are reported as unstandardized beta (β) with 95% confidence intervals for one standard deviation increase in early growth variable. Associations were adjusted for sex, birth weight, maternal pre-pregnancy BMI as well as adult weight, height, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, physical activity, diabetes, heart diseases and antihypertensive medication. Results Infant peak weight velocity (β=0.018 (0.011, 0.025), p<0.001) was associated with a higher CIMT in midlife, independently of adjustments for sex, early life factors and adult cardiometabolic factors (β=0.011 (0.003, 0.019), p=0.010). Infant peak height velocity was also associated with adult CIMT, but only in females (β=0.012 (0.004, 0.021), p=0.004) and the association was attenuated after adjustments (β=0.010 (0.0, 0.021), p=0.055). Birth weight and gestational age were not associated with adult CIMT. BMI at AP (β=0.011 (0.003, 0.019), p=0.007) and BMI at AR (β=0.010 (0.003, 0.018), p=0.005) were directly associated with CIMT in midlife in univariate analysis, but not independently of adult cardiometabolic factors. Timing of AP and AR were not related to adult CIMT. Finally, maternal pre-pregnancy BMI (β=0.005 (0.0, 0.011), p=0.066) also tended to be associated with a higher CIMT in midlife. Conclusions Rapid growth in infancy was the most important early growth-related factor associating with CIMT in midlife, and this relationship was not fully mediated by adult anthropometrics, cardiometabolic risk factors and morbidity. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Aarne Koskelo Foundation

Stereotactic Radiotherapy for Brain Metastases: Imaging Tools and Dosimetric Predictive Factors for Radionecrosis

Radionecrosis (RN) is the most important side effect after stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT) for brain metastases, with a reported incidence ranging from 3% to 24%. To date, there are no unanimously accepted criteria for iconographic diagnosis of RN, as well as no definitive dose-constraints correlated with the onset of this late effect. We reviewed the current literature and gave an overview report on imaging options for the diagnosis of RN and on dosimetric parameters correlated with the onset of RN. We performed a PubMed literature search according to the preferred reporting items and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines, and identified articles published within the last ten years, up to 31 December 2019. When analyzing data on diagnostic tools, perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) seems to be very useful allowing evaluation of the blood flow in the lesion using the relative cerebral blood volume (rCBV) and blood vessel integrity using relative peak weight (rPH). It is necessary to combine morphological with functional imaging in order to match information about lesion morphology, metabolism and blood-flow. Eventually, serial imaging follow-up is needed. Regarding dosimetric parameters, in radiosurgery (SRS) V12 < 8 cm3 and V10 < 10.5 cm3 of normal brain are the most reliable prognostic factors, whereas in hypo-fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (HSRT) V18 and V21 are considered the main predictive independent risk factors of RN.

Pain-Relieving Effect of 4.4 MHz of Pulsed Radiofrequency on Acute Knee Arthritis in Rats

Objective Drug injections and surgery are popular treatments for knee joint osteoarthritis. However, these treatments are invasive, and new noninvasive treatments with similar or better efficacy are needed. Here, we evaluated the application of 4.4 MHz of pulsed radiofrequency (PRF) as a new treatment. Methods Acute arthritis was induced by injection of carrageenan into the intra-articular space of the knee in male rats. At 4.5 hours after arthritis induction, PRF with the treatment protocol of three seconds on and off was applied to the affected knee joint for 20 minutes. The changes in pain behavior were evaluated by comparing the peak weight load values of both hind paws at pretreatment and four, six, seven, eight, and 24 hours after treatment. And we also used Western blotting and immunohistochemistry to measure the inflammatory changes in the synovial membrane of the inflamed knee. Results We found that the 20-minute application of PRF with the treatment protocol significantly recovered the weight load reduction at six-, seven-, and eight-hour time points after carrageenan injection. COX-2 and IL-1β levels were significantly reduced in the inflamed rats after PRF application at six and eight hours post–carrageenan injection. Immunohistochemistry showed that PRF significantly reduced inflammatory cell infiltration at six hours post–carrageenan injection. Conclusions . Our results indicate that noninvasive PRF application inhibited pain-related behavior and decreased inflammatory cytokine expression in the inflamed knee joints of rats. Accordingly, PRF application can serve as a potential therapeutic treatment to relieve pain associated with peripheral joint/tissue damage or inflammation.

Growth Patterns of Neonates Treated with Thermal Control in Neutral Environment and Nutrition Regulation to Meet Basal Metabolism

Little is known about the growth patterns of low birth weight neonates (<2500 g) during standardized thermal control and nutrition regulation to meet basal metabolism requirements compared to those of non-low birth weight neonates (2500 g and above). We retrospectively identified 10,544 non-low birth weight and 681 low birth weight neonates placed in thermo-controlled incubators for up to 24 h after birth. All neonates were fed a 5% glucose solution 1 h after birth and breastfed every 3 h (with supplementary formula milk if applicable) to meet basal metabolism requirements. Maximum body-weight loss (%), percentage body-weight loss from birth to peak weight loss (%/day), and percentage body-weight gain from peak weight loss to day 4 (%/day) were assessed by multivariable linear regression. Overall, the growth curves showed a uniform J-shape across all birth weight categories, with a low mean maximum body-weight loss (1.9%) and incidence of neonatal jaundice (0.3%). The body-weight loss patterns did not differ between the two groups. However, low birth weight neonates showed significantly faster growth patterns for percentage body-weight gain: β = 0.52 (95% confidence interval, 0.46 to 0.58). Under thermal control and nutrition regulation, low birth weight neonates might not have disadvantages in clinical outcomes or growth patterns.

The effect of early growth patterns and lung function on the development of childhood asthma: a population based study

BackgroundInfant weight gain is associated with lower lung function and a higher risk of childhood asthma. Detailed individual childhood growth patterns might be better predictors of childhood respiratory morbidity than the difference between two weight and height measurements. We assessed the associations of early childhood growth patterns with lung function and asthma at the age of 10 years and whether the child’s current body mass index (BMI) influenced any association.MethodsWe derived peak height and weight growth velocity, BMI at adiposity peak, and age at adiposity peak from longitudinally measured weight and height data in the first 3 years of life of 4435 children enrolled in a population-based prospective cohort study. At 10 years of age, spirometry was performed and current asthma was assessed by questionnaire. Spirometry outcomes included forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), FEV1/FVC ratio, and forced expiratory flow after exhaling 75% of vital capacity (FEF75).ResultsGreater peak weight velocity was associated with higher FVC but lower FEV1/FVC and FEF75. Greater BMI at adiposity peak was associated with higher FVC and FEV1 but lower FEV1/FVC and FEF75. Greater age at adiposity peak was associated with higher FVC, FEV1, FEV1/FVC and FEF75, particularly in children with a small size at birth, and lower odds of current asthma in boys. The child’s current BMI only explained the associations of peak weight velocity and BMI at adiposity peak with FVC and FEV1. Peak height velocity was not consistently associated with impaired lung function or asthma.ConclusionPeak weight velocity and BMI at adiposity peak were associated with reduced airway patency in relation to lung volume, whereas age at adiposity peak was associated with higher lung function parameters and lower risk of asthma at 10 years, particularly in boys.