scholarly journals ANALISIS PENAWARAN EKSPOR TEKSTIL DAN PRODUK TEKSTIL INDONESIA KE ASEAN (Studi Kasus Negara Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philipina dan Kamboja)

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Faiq Fuadi
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
International Prices ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Asean Countries

International trade plays an important role in economic growth after consumption, investment and government spending. the industrial sector is encouraged to increase international trade, especially non-oil exports. Textiles and textile products (TPT) is one of the most important parts of Indonesian non-oil industry, this is because the textile industry contributes substantially to GDP. This study aimed to analyze the effect of the exchange rate, international prices of textile and textile domestic price index to the volume of Indonesian textile export supply in some ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Cambodia).The data used in this research are secondary data in the period January 2011 to December 2014, and the industry codes are used Harmonized System (HS) 50 to 63. The analytical method used is the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) using Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV).The results showed that the exchange rate, domestic production index are positive and have significant impact on the volume of Indonesian textile exports to ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Cambodia). While international prices have positive effect and it not significant.

scholarly journals The Relationship between International Trade and Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (02) ◽  
pp. 112-123
Author(s):  
Putri Dewi Purnama ◽  
Ming Hung Yao
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this study is to find the relationship between international trade and economic growth in ASEAN countries. Three independent variables used to measure the economic growth include international trade, the exchange rate, and foreign direct investment. This study employs a pedroni panel cointegration test to examine the data from 2004 to 2015. The results show that there is a long term cointegrated relationship between international trade and economic growth in the ASEAN countries. International trade and foreign direct investment also have a long term, positive impact on economic growth. Meanwhile, the exchange rate also has a long term, negative influence on the economic growth. In addition, there is an indirect relationship and bidirectional causalities between the GDP and international trade, as well as between the GDP and the exchange rate. On the other hand, there is a direct relationship and a bidirectional causality between international trade and the exchange rate. The FDI leads GDP, international trade, and exchange rates. Our results suggest that international trade must be supported by government policies that aim to enhance the financing of new investment for economic growth.

scholarly journals The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Case of the CEE Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 177
Author(s):  
Fatbardha Morina ◽  
Eglantina Hysa ◽  
Uğur Ergün ◽  
Mirela Panait ◽  
Marian Catalin Voica
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The exchange rate is a key macroeconomic factor that affects international trade and the real economy of each country. The development of international trade creates conditions where volatility comes with the exchange rate. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of real effective exchange rate volatility on economic growth in the Central and Eastern European countries. Additionally, the effect, through three channels of influence on economic growth which vary on the measurement of exchange rate volatility, is examined. The study uses annual data for fourteen CEE countries for the period 2002–2018 to examine the nature and extends the impact of such movements on growth. The empirical findings using the fixed effects estimation for panel data reveal that the volatility of the exchange rate has a significant negative effect on real economic growth. The results appear robust with alternative measures of exchange rate volatility such as standard deviation and z-score. This paper suggests that policymakers should adopt different policies to keep the exchange rate stable in order to foster economic growth.

scholarly journals Momentum Periods of Feedback Trading toward Exchange Rate Volatility

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Sudibyo ◽  
Aulia Keiko
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Feedback ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Brunei Darussalam ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Positive Feedback Traders ◽  
Feedback Trading

In this paper, the authors apply empirical evidence to demonstrate how important positive feedback trading factors in understanding exchange rate behavior. Utilizing the GARCH augmented feedback model, or the exchange rate model set out by Laopodis (2005), the author analyzes autocorrelation in exchange rate parameters and volatility in key ASEAN markets to yield the deeper understanding of momentum periods. The authors contend that positive feedback traders affect exchange rate volatility in ASEAN countries and induce the autocorrelation of negative returns within high exchange rate volatility. This study found that Singapore demonstrated a significant positive feedback trading during the period 1995-2014, while the authors further contend that Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei Darussalam, and Singapore also demonstrated positive feedback trading during the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. In addition to analyzing the positive feedback trading on exchange rate volatility, we also identify the exchange rate volatility spillover across the ASEAN countries. Related to this context, we found that Indonesia and Thailand play a dominant role as a dominant exchange rate volatility transmitter in the ASEAN region.

Dampak Kebijakan Moneter Pada Output Di Negara-Negara ASEAN Tahun 1980-2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-70
Author(s):  
Nur Widiastuti
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
State Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
The Impact

The Impact of monetary Policy on Ouput is an ambiguous. The results of previous empirical studies indicate that the impact can be a positive or negative relationship. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of monetary policy on Output more detail. The variables to estimatate monetery poicy are used state and board interest rate andrate. This research is conducted by Ordinary Least Square or Instrumental Variabel, method for 5 countries ASEAN. The state data are estimated for the period of 1980 – 2014. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the impact of monetary policy on Output shown are varied.Keyword: Monetary Policy, Output, Panel Data, Fixed Effects Model

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR EKSPOR KENDARAAN CBU RODA EMPAT DAN ENAM DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2015 – 2019

2021 ◽  
pp. 1107
Author(s):  
I Putu Sanpala Dharma Mahendra ◽  
Anak Agung Bagus Putu Widanta
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The industrial sector can develop with government policies and trade between countries. Industrialization plays an important role in improving the quality of human resources and optimally utilizing natural and other resources. To analyze the effect of government policies partially on exports of four- and six-wheeled CBU vehicles in Indonesia from 2015 to 2019. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar partially and simultaneously on exports of four and six-wheel CBU vehicles in Indonesia in 2015. 2015 to 2019. The type of data used is quantitative data, with the data source being secondary data. The analysis technique used in this study uses multiple linear regression analysis techniques. The results of this study indicate that simultaneously government policy variables, exchange rates, and world oil prices have a significant effect on the value of Indonesia's CBU exports in 2014-2019, and partially government policy variables and world oil prices have a positive and significant effect on Indonesia's CBU exports. While the exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on Indonesian CBU. This means that if the exchange rate of the rupiah against the dollar increases or the strengthening of the value of the dollar against the rupiah will cause a decrease in the price of exported goods, the value of export goods will also decrease.

scholarly journals Trade Balance and Exchange Rate in Thailand & the Implications for Vietnam: An Application using Instrumental Variable and the Heterogeneous Panel Cointegration Methods

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (01) ◽  
pp. 137-160
Author(s):  
Anh Vo The ◽  
Duc Vo Hong
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Heterogeneous Panel

This study aims to investigate the link of trade balance and exchange rate for the case of Thailand in different aspects by initially attempting to examine what factors determine the trade balance in Thailand and then to test the long-run relationship between the exchange rate and Thailand’s trade balance. The empirical findings indicate that the exchange rate and relative growth rate of income play central roles in explaining Thailand’s trade balance, and fiscal and monetary policies are beneficial in some cases. Additionally, panel fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) estimations illustrate that a devaluation of Thailand Baht offers a significantly positive improvement on its trade balance in the long run, especially for the groups of countries with upper middle and high income in America and Europe. Individual FMOLS regressions of Thailand’s trade balance and each of its 62 trading partners suggest that a devaluation of Thailand’s currency would stimulate Thailand’s trade performance with over 20 trading partners, but hurt its performance with the other 10 countries and be inconclusive to the others.

scholarly journals Analysis Of Effect Of Social And Economic Infrastructure Development To The Economy Of Coastal Areas In East Java Province

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-36
Author(s):  
Gigih Pratomo
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Area ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Fem Method

Developing countries are always faced with various economic development challenges (Todaro, 2000). Development of social economic Infrastructures has an important factor to influence the level of Gross Domestic Product. In coastal areas, infrastructure development is low and not optimal utilization. This study aims to determine the effects of development of social economic Infrastructures to the economy of coastal area in East Java Province during the perion 2008-2015. This study uses secondary data and samples taken by purposive random sampling technique that is the district/city of Banyuwangi, Jember, Probolinggo, Trenggalek, Sumenep, Sampang, Bangkalan, Lamongan, Gresik, Malang, dan kota Surabaya. This study uses panel data Fixed Effects Model (FEM) method with Generalized Least Square (GLS) cross section weight.The results of this study indicate that the variable of number school building, roads, and electricities significantly and positively effect to the economy of coastal area in East Java Province.

Monetary Policy and Oil Prices

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 1850232
Author(s):  
Mehdi S. Monadjemi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Trade Shocks ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Because of volatility, commodity prices are excluded from the CPI when inflation targeting is exercised. Rising commodity prices contribute to inflation but central banks show no reaction since the CPI does not register rise in prices. Frankel (2006) argues that monetary policy should consider the price of important export commodities such as oil, in oil exporting countries. He maintains that by doing so, central banks are able to benefit from the fluctuations of the exchange rate in the presence of a negative international trade shocks. Central banks cannot benefit from the fluctuation of the exchange rate if inflation targeting is the strategy for conducting monetary policy.

Cross-border merger and acquisition activities in Asia: the role of macroeconomic factors

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 307-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusnidah Ibrahim ◽  
Jimoh Olajide Raji
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Merger And Acquisition ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Asean Countries

Purpose This paper aims to examine the influence of key macroeconomic factors on the inward and outward acquisition activities of six ASEAN (ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, over the 1996-2015 period. Design/methodology/approach The study uses alternative panel data methods, including pooled mean group, mean group and dynamic fixed-effect estimators. Findings The results indicate that gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate, exchange rate, money supply and inflation rate are the most important macroeconomic factors explaining the trends of cross-border mergers and acquisition outflows of the ASEAN-6 countries. Specifically, GDP, money supply and inflation rate have significant positive relationships with acquisition outflows, while interest rate and exchange rate exert significant negative influence. On the other hand, the authors find four significant macroeconomic factors explaining the trends of the inward acquisitions. Essentially, GDP, money supply and inflation rate have significant positive impacts on inward acquisitions, while the impact of exchange rate is negatively significant. Research limitations/implications Unavailability of data limits this study to pool six sample countries from ASEAN, instead of ten representative member countries. Practical implications The results of this study can signal to firms or investors, involving in cross-border mergers and acquisitions, where to direct foreign resources flows. Moreover, having the knowledge about the relative levels of market size and other macroeconomic factors in both home and host countries can be of great importance for investment decision. Therefore, policymakers of ASEAN countries should make appropriate macroeconomic policies that can stimulate inward and outward acquisitions. Originality/value The main contribution of this paper is that it is the first to present the analysis of macroeconomic influences on the trends of inward and outward merger and acquisition activities in six ASEAN countries.

scholarly journals The Stock Market and Exchange Rates in Five South Asian Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Firmansyah Firmansyah ◽  
Shanty Oktavilia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The composite price index and return of stocks are the important indicators, both as a measure of the company's portfolio performance, as well as an indicator of macroeconomic health and the aggregate investment. In addition, the stock prices are also influenced by macroeconomic variables and one of the most important is the exchange rates. The objective of this study is to determine the behavior of exchange rate affects the stock returns in Southeast Asia, pre and post of the 2008 world financial crisis. By employing the daily stock market return in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore more than seventeen years from 1 September 1999 to 31 March 2017, this study utilizes Engle-Granger error correction model and cointegration approach to investigate and compare the long and short run of the structural effect of the exchange rates on stock returns. To differentiate the behavior of variables between pre and post occurrence of 2008 world financial crisis, the estimation of the model is divided into two periods. This study finds that the exchange rate growth influence the stock returns in the long and short run, and proves that the cointegration between the two variables exist in all countries. The study has the implication that the exchange rate, which the one of the fundamental measures of a country's macroeconomic health, is an important determinant of influencing stock return, even its effects are responded by the stock return in one day.

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