The impact of market participants' interaction on futures prices: comparing three US wheat futures markets

Author(s):  
David Bosch
Author(s):  
John R. Nofsinger

Are behavioral biases prevalent in commodities and futures markets? Although retail equity investors display many psychological biases, investors who are more sophisticated exhibit fewer biases. The market makers, traders (locals), speculators, hedgers, and institutions of the commodities and futures markets tend to be professional participants, and thus less prone to behavioral biases. Nevertheless, the fast-paced action of these markets is an environment that fosters behavioral errors. This chapter reviews the literature on the pervasiveness of prospect theory behavior and other biases in these markets. Strong evidence indicates that market participants exhibit loss aversion, the impact of reference points, the disposition effect, and overconfidence. They also engage in positive feedback trading and momentum investing. Lastly, the chapter reviews risk-taking and behavioral biases by the type of market participant, particularly focusing on market makers, floor traders, clearing members, and the public.


Author(s):  
Kyle J. Putnam

In the early 2000s, financial investors began pouring billions of dollars into the commodity futures markets seeking the unique investment benefits of this distinct asset class. This “financialization” process has called into question the fundamental risk and return properties of commodity futures as evidence has emerged favoring the idea that the massive increase in investor flows caused a rise in futures prices, volatility, and intra- and intermarket return correlations. However, a contrarian line of research contends that the effects of the new “speculative” capital on the futures markets are unsubstantiated and the increased participation of financial investors poses little consequence to the economics of the marketplace. This latter line of literature maintains that the investment benefits of commodity futures have not been diminished and that fundamental factors and business cycle variations can explain the observed changes in commodity price behavior.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Radeef Chundakkadan

AbstractIn this study, we investigate the impact of the light-a-lamp event that occurred in India during the COVID-19 lockdown. This event happened across the country, and millions of people participated in it. We link this event to the stock market through investor sentiment and misattribution bias. We find a 9% hike in the market return on the post-event day. The effect is heterogeneous in terms of beta, downside risk, volatility, and financial distress. We also find an increase (decrease) in long-term bond yields (price), which together suggests that market participants demanded risky assets in the post-event day.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalya Kovalevskaya ◽  
Vladislav Tyunkov

The article examines the issues of developing the residential property market taking into account the specifics of real estate as an object of the economic analysis. It reveals the terms of implementing economic interest in investing in residential property, identifies the features inherent in the residential property market as investment and commodity markets. It analyses the dual nature of real estate which explains the development of investment and consumer interests of the residential property market participants. The article analyses the interrelation of «saving - investment - consumption» at the level of implementing private (individual) interests of economic subject. It makes a comparison of various investment assets in terms of their attractiveness for private investors, depending on various factors affecting the decision to invest. It analyses the terms that allow to fully disclose the investment or consumer aspects of the residential property market. It considers the impact of the governmental investment policy directed at supporting and promoting development aspects of the residential property market.


2021 ◽  
pp. 27-35
Author(s):  
E. A. Bykova

The article discusses important features of trends in the transformation of the wholesale and retail level of the Russian medicinal market in the context of innovative factors in the development of the pharmaceutical industry in Russia. The paper gives a general assessment of the impact of state regulation of the maximum selling prices for medicines from the list of vital and essential medicines on the profitability of the market. The author presents a simplified institutional scheme of interaction between distributors and other market participants. The study discusses important aspects and tactical steps of the distribution and pharmacy level of the Russian pharmaceutical market. The article gives the ratings of the leading distribution pharmaceutical companies in Russia and analyses the peculiarities of their structural changes under the influence of innovative development factors. The paper gives ratings of leading pharmacy chains and analyses the features of new structural formations – associations. The author proposes the term of “polarization” for wholesale and retail companies.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oskars Kaulēns ◽  
◽  
Reinis Upenieks

Changes in technology use and globalization are leading to significant changes in the structure of the labor market, emphasizing the need for labor market participants to learn continuously and acquire new knowledge and skills in order to adapt to a rapidly changing work environment. Economists point to the risks posed by technological development, such as the reduction of low-skilled jobs as a result of digitalization and automation processes. Although professionals working with people, such as healthcare professionals and teachers, are less exposed to the risk of automation, they are still increasingly unstable as technology and artificial intelligence compete with human experts. This means that medical and education staff will also need more targeted, regular and labor market-oriented professional development in order to remain competitive and demonstrate demand-driven performance. In line with changes in the quality standards of professional performance for healthcare professionals and teachers, changes are also taking place in how the professional development of these groups is implemented. In addition to formal development activities such as courses and seminars, the need to accept the impact of informal learning is emphasized, not only expanding the aims and content of professional development activities but also offering new learning formats. The aim of the qualitative research conducted by the authors is to study the understanding of teachers and healthcare professionals about their professional development by analyzing their answers regarding their professional development. The focus of the study has been chosen to test the assumption that healthcare professionals and teachers view their continuing education more in the context of formal training, with less emphasis on professional development through informal learning. Within the framework of the research, a survey of random respondents within the said target groups has been conducted and the answers of the respondents have been analyzed, with attention paid to the aspects of formal and informal learning. The article presents the results of the content analysis, highlighting the most important trends of study results and the problematic aspects related to the improvement of the quality of professional development.


Author(s):  
Piotr Wybieralski

Purpose: The aim of the chapter is to analyze the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and market volatility increase on risk management in the OTC derivatives market in Poland. Design/methodology/approach: The chapter describes the legal background of derivatives trading with non-financial enterprises, then identifies the main risks, and discusses possible actions of market participants. In this regard, the study conducts volatility analysis based on selected market data. Findings: Due to volatility increase and the resulting negative valuation of non-matured currency derivatives by Polish exporters, margin call clauses were triggered, entailing the need to post additional collateral or prematurely close contracts. The described situation is particularly difficult when the pre-settlement limit is fully utilized on deal date, usually in the case of long-lasting large open exposures in non-flexible transactions. Research implications: To determine market risk, studies often apply the VaR approach. Inthis way, the specific amount of risk is analyzed on adaily basis and used by banks both to determine the maximum amount of the contract and to control pre-settlement risk. Apart from many advantages of the VaR approach, there are some drawbacks, especially related to volatility estimation, which usually relies on historical market fluctuations. It may cause that the risk will not be properly valued under crisis conditions. In such situations, supplementary methods should be also implemented (stresstests). Practical implications: Under high market volatility, preventive actions should be prepared in advance, including treasury limit increase, additional funds for collaterals, or contracts modification (flexible products should be considered).Originality and value: The study covers a challenge that banks face, which is rarely described in professional literature but very serious for bank management. Under normal market conditions, if the margin call clause appears and no additional collateral is posted, the transaction should be closed to limit the counterparty’s loss. However, this type of action during the pandemic may impose the risk of force majeure. From the company perspective, using such instruments threatens their early settlement and the need to finance closeout amount.


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