scholarly journals Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 173-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Milan Lapin ◽  
Peter Valent ◽  
Ján Szolgay ◽  
Silvia Kohnová ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981–2010 period, 20 events of the basin’s most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation totals were modified according to the RCM and GCM-based scenarios for the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2075. For modelling runoff under changed 5-day precipitation totals, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology was used. Changes in extreme mean daily discharges due to climate change were compared with the original flood events and discussed.

scholarly journals Coupling Tank Model and Lars-Weather Generator in Assessments of the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naser Mohammadzadeh ◽  
Bahman Jabbarian Amiri ◽  
Leila Eslami Endergoli ◽  
Shirin Karimi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Tank Model ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract With the aim of assessing the impact of climate change on surface water resources, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (the tank model) was coupled with LARS-WG as a weather generator model. The downscaled daily rainfall, temperature, and evaporation from LARS-WG under various IPCC climate change scenarios were used to simulate the runoff through the calibrated Tank model. A catchment (4648 ha) located in the southern basin of the Caspian Sea was chosen for this research study. The results showed that this model has a reasonable predictive capability in simulating minimum and maximum temperatures at a level of 99%, rainfall at a level of 93%, and radiation at a level of 97% under various scenarios in agreement with the observed data. Moreover, the results of the rainfall-runoff model indicated an increase in the flow rate of about 108% under the A1B scenario, 101% under the A2 scenario, and 93% under the B1 scenario over the 30-year time period of the discharge prediction.

Parameterization of the rainfall-runoff model in changing climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milica Aleksić ◽  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Runoff Model

AbstractA conceptual rainfall-runoff model was used for estimating the impact of climate change on the runoff regime in the Myjava River basin. Changes in climatic characteristics for future decades were expressed by a regional climate model using the A1B emission scenario. The model was calibrated for 1981–1990, 1991–2000, 2001–2010, 2011–2019. The best set of model parameters selected from the recent calibration period was used to simulate runoff for three periods, which should reflect the level of future climate change. The results show that the runoff should increase in the winter months (December and January) and decrease in the summer months (June to August). An evaluation of the long-term mean monthly runoff for the future climate scenario indicates that the highest runoff will occur in March.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment under RCP scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wudeneh Temesgen Bekele ◽  
Alemseged Tamiru Haile ◽  
Tom Rientjes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract In this study, the impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment, Upper Blue Nile basin, is evaluated. We used the outputs of four climate models for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios, which are RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Streamflow simulation was done by using the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model, which was satisfactorily calibrated and validated for the study area. For the historic period (1971–2000), all climate models significantly underestimated the observed rainfall amount for the rainy season. We therefore bias-corrected the climate data before using them as input for the rainfall-runoff model. The results of the four climate models for the period 2041 to 2070 show that annual rainfall is likely to decrease by 0.36 to 21% under RCP 4.5. The projected increases in minimum and maximum temperature will lead to an increase in annual evapotranspiration by 3 to 7%, which will likely contribute to decreasing the annual flows of Arjo-Didessa by 1 to 3%. Our results show that the impact is season dependent, with an increased streamflow in the main rainy season but a decreased flow in the short rainy season and the dry seasons. The magnitudes of projected changes are more pronounced under RCP 8.5 than under RCP 4.5.

scholarly journals QUASI-PHYSICALLY-BASED DISTRIBUTED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL INCORPORATING GIS DATA

1992 ◽  
Vol 36 ◽  
pp. 659-664 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klttlpong JIRAYOOT ◽  
Masaki SAWAMOTO ◽  
SO KAZAMA
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Gis Data ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

scholarly journals Climate change model as a decision support tool for water resources management in northern Iraq: a case study of Greater Zab River

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 197-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Osman ◽  
N. Al-Ansari ◽  
M. Abdellatif
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract The northern region of Iraq heavily depends on rivers, such as the Greater Zab, for water supply and irrigation. Thus, river water management in light of future climate change is of paramount importance in the region. In this study, daily rainfall and temperature obtained from the Greater Zab catchment, for 1961–2008, were used in building rainfall and evapotranspiration models using LARS-WG and multiple linear regressions, respectively. A rainfall–runoff model, in the form of autoregressive model with exogenous factors, has been developed using observed flow, rainfall and evapotranspiration data. The calibrated rainfall–runoff model was subsequently used to investigate the impacts of climate change on the Greater Zab flows for the near (2011–2030), medium (2046–2065), and far (2080–2099) futures. Results from the impacts model showed that the catchment is projected to suffer a significant reduction in total annual flow in the far future; with more severe drop during the winter and spring seasons in the range of 25 to 65%. This would have serious ramifications for the current agricultural activities in the catchment. The results could be of significant benefits for water management planners in the catchment as they can be used in allocating water for different users in the catchment.

scholarly journals Reservoir yield intercomparison of large dams in Jaguaribe Basin-CE in climate change scenarios

RBRH ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Renato de Oliveira Fernandes ◽  
Cleiton da Silva Silveira ◽  
Ticiana Marinho de Carvalho Studart ◽  
Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Great Divergence ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Reservoir Yield

ABSTRACT Climate changes can have different impacts on water resources. Strategies to adapt to climate changes depend on impact studies. In this context, this study aimed to estimate the impact that changes in precipitation, projected by Global Circulation Models (GCMs) in the fifth report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) may cause on reservoir yield (Q90) of large reservoirs (Castanhão and Banabuiú), located in the Jaguaribe River Basin, Ceará. The rainfall data are from 20 GCMs using two greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The precipitation projections were used as input data for the rainfall-runoff model (SMAP) and, after the reservoirs’ inflow generation, the reservoir yields were simulated in the AcquaNet model, for the time periods of 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. The results were analyzed and presented a great divergence, in sign (increase or decrease) and in the magnitude of change of Q90. However, most Q90 projections indicated reduction in both reservoirs, for the two periods, especially at the end of the 21th century.

scholarly journals Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of GIS based continuous hydrological modelling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry R. Manson
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Curve Number ◽  
Monte Carlo Analysis ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Lumped Model ◽  
Daily Average ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Runoff Model

The impact of uncertainty in spatial and a-spatial lumped model parameters for a continuous rainfall-runoff model is evaluated with respect to model prediction. The model uses a modified SCS-Curve Number approach that is loosely coupled with a geographic information system (GIS). The rainfall-runoff model uses daily average inputs and is calibrated using a daily average streamflow record for the study site. A Monte Carlo analysis is used to identify total model uncertainty while sensitivity analysis is applied using both a one-at-a-time (OAT) approach as well as through application of the extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Technique (FAST). Conclusions suggest that the model is highly followed by model inputs and finally the Curve Number. While the model does not indicate a high degree of sensitivity to the Curve Number at present conditions, uncertainties in Curve Number estimation can potentially be the cause of high predictive errors when future development scenarios are evaluated.

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