scholarly journals Is Inflation Rate of Turkey Stationary? Evidence from Unit Root Tests with and Without Structural Breaks

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 29-52
Author(s):  
Uğur Sivri

AbstractTurkey has high inflation experience and in order to bring inflation rate down as well as maintaining macroeconomic stability many policy changes and reforms have been implemented. Despite some success, decreasing inflation rate is still an aim of monetary policy and price stability is still faraway. This article investigates time series properties of Turkish CPI inflation rate in both seasonally unadjusted and adjusted forms. Results of various unit root tests without structural breaks generally show that inflation rate is a nonstationary variable. This article also uses one and two breaks minimum LM unit root tests due to Lee and Strazicich (2004, 2003), respectively. In this case, test results show that inflation rate is a stationary variable with breaks. Although selected break points differ with respect to models and variables to some extent, it is observed that one break occurred around March 1994, and the second break occurred around April 2001.

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-92
Author(s):  
Sara Muhammadullah ◽  
Amena Urooj ◽  
Faridoon Khan

The study investigates the query of structural break or unit root considering four macroeconomic indicators; unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth, and inflation rate of Pakistan. The previous studies create ambiguity regarding the stationarity and non-stationarity of these variables. We employ Zivot & Andrews (1992) unit root test and Step Indicator Saturation (SIS) method for multiple break detection in mean. GDP growth and inflation rate are stationary at level whereas unit root tests fail to reject the null hypothesis of the unemployment rate and interest rate at level. However, Zivot and Andrew unit root test with a single endogenous break indicates that the unemployment rate and interest rate are stationary at level with a single endogenous break. On the other hand, the SIS method reveals that the series are stationary with multiple structural breaks. It is inferred that it is inappropriate to take the first difference of the unemployment rate and interest rate to attain stationarity. The results of this study confirmed that there exist multiple breaks in the macroeconomic variables considered in the context of Pakistan.


2019 ◽  
Vol 78 (308) ◽  
pp. 120
Author(s):  
Mesut Turkay ◽  
Burak Sencer Atasoy

<p class="run-in" align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p>The popularity of inflation targeting has risen in the last decade and the number of countries that adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework surpassed 40 by the end of 2016. This study analyzes whether inflation targeting around the world has been successful in terms of achieving the announced target and keeping inflation rate around it. We argue that a successful inflation targeting necessitates the deviation of inflation from the target be stationary. We employ both time series and panel unit root tests in order to analyze the stationarity properties of deviation of inflation from the target. Results of unit root tests provide evidence in favor of the success of inflation targeting framework around the world.</p><p align="center"><strong> </strong></p><p align="center"><strong>¿HAN SIDO EXITOSAS LAS METAS DE INFLACIÓN? RESULTADOS DE LAS PRUEBAS DE RAÍZ UNITARIA</strong></p><p class="run-in" align="center"><strong>RESUMEN</strong></p>La popularidad de las metas de inflación ha aumentado en la última década y el número de países que adoptaron metas de inflación como su marco de política monetaria sobrepasó los 40 a finales del 2016. Este estudio analiza si las metas de inflación alrededor del mundo han tenido éxito en términos de alcanzar el objetivo anunciado y mantener la tasa de inflación alrededor de su meta. Argumentamos que una meta exitosa de inflación requiere que la desviación de la inflación respecto a la meta sea estacionaria. Empleamos tanto series de tiempo como pruebas de raíz unitaria en panel con el fin de analizar las propiedades estacionarias de la desviación de la inflación en relación con el objetivo. Los resultados de las pruebas de raíz unitaria proporcionan evidencia a favor del éxito del marco de metas de inflación en todo el mundo.


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-84
Author(s):  
Vicente Esteve ◽  
Maria A. Prats

Abstract In this article, we use tests of explosive behavior in real house prices with annual data for the case of Australia for the period 1870–2020. The main contribution of this paper is the use of very long time series. It is important to use longer span data because it offers more powerful econometric results. To detect episodes of potential explosive behavior in house prices over this long period, we use the recursive unit root tests for explosiveness proposed by Phillips et al. (2011), (2015a,b). According to the results, there is a clear speculative bubble behavior in real house prices between 1997 and 2020, speculative process that has not yet been adjusted.


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 311-333
Author(s):  
Denise de Assis PAIVA ◽  
Thelma SÁFADI

The time series methodology is an important tool when using data over time. The time series can be composed of the components trend (Tt), seasonality (St) and the random error (at). The aim of this study was to evaluate the tests used to analyze the trend component, which were: Pettitt, Run, Mann-Kendall, Cox-Stuart and the unit root tests (Dickey-Fuller, Dickey-Fuller Augmented and Zivot and Andrews), given that there is a discrepancy between the test results found in the literature. The four series analyzed were the maximum temperature in the Lavras city, MG, Brazil, the unemployment rate in the Metropolitan Region of S~ao Paulo (RMSP), the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) and the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Brazil. It was found that the unit root tests showed similar results in relation to the presence of the stochastic trend for all series. Furthermore, the turning point of the Pettitt test diverged from all the structural breaks found through the Zivot and Andrews test, except for the GDP series. Therefore, it was found that the trend tests diverged, obtaining similar results only in relation to the unemployment series.


2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 253
Author(s):  
Gülgün Cigdem

In this study, Turkey’s current account deficit problem between the years 1980-2016 is tested whether it is sustainable or not. For this purpose, the ADF and the PP Unit Root test were applied firstly to the annual current account deficit (CAD)/GDP data from the IMF. Then, Lee Strazicich (2003, 2004) Unit Root Tests with two structural breaks was applied. Allowing Lee Strazicich with two structural breaks differs from the Zivot-Andrews (ZA)(1992) and Lumsdaine-Papell (LP) (1997) unit root tests in establishing the basic hypothesis. The ZA and LP unit root tests are based on the basic hypothesis of unit root existence without structural fracture. Based on the Lagrange multiplier proposed by Schmidt and Phillips (1992), LM unit root test with two structural breaks developed by Lee-Strazicich adopted the structural fractured unit root basic hypothesis.According to the ADF and PP test results, the CAD/GDP series is stationary at the level for both models. According to the LM test results, the unit root null hypothesis could be rejected. It is a stationary process in Turkey. This result is consistent with the ADF and PP test results. Empirical findings obtained from LM unit root test with two structural breaks show that current account deficits in Turkey are sustainable. The fact that the current account deficit is sustainable means the sustainability of external debts. The sustainability of deficit is one of the most emphasized issues especially from the perspective of countries which are dependent on foreign capital to finance their development and also crucial for the global system.


2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 178-188
Author(s):  
Burak Güriş ◽  
Gülşah Sedefoğlu

The purpose of the article is to give brief information about the development process of time series analysis and to test the validity of the unemployment hysteresis in Turkey for female and male graduates for the years from 1988 to 2013. For this purpose, Kapetanios et al. [2003], Sollis [2009] and Kruse [2011] nonlinear unit root tests are applied based on the smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model. Besides, nonlinear unit root tests proposed by Christopoulos et al. [2010] and Guris [2018] are employed to model the structural breaks through Fourier approach and to model the nonlinearity through a STAR model.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1143-1155
Author(s):  
Andisheh Saliminezhad ◽  
Pejman Bahramian

Purpose This paper aims to examine the stochastic convergence of the per capita CO2 emissions among the top four crude oil exporter countries, namely, Canada, Iraq, Russia and Saudi Arabia, from 1960 to 2017. Assessing the stationarity and unit root properties of the environmental series in these countries is important as their large fossil fuel resources increases the potential for rising CO2 emissions compared to other countries. Design/methodology/approach In addition to implementing the conventional unit root tests, the authors also benefit from the application of three nonlinear unit root tests, namely, wavelet unit root test, nonlinear unit root test of Güriş (2019) and the Fourier quantile unit root test. These methods are robust to the presence of possible structural breaks and other forms of nonlinearities, while the wavelet unit root test enables us to examine the stochastic behavior of the variables in both time and frequency domains. Hence, they all provide more reliable inferences on the convergences of the CO2 emissions compared to their standard competitors. Findings The standard unit root test results show strong evidence in favor of non-stationarity in all countries. This conclusion supports the results of the other nonlinear unit root tests and the overall findings of the Fourier quantile unit root test. The wavelet unit root test provides a controversial finding. However, due to its limitations, its findings must be interpreted with caution. The details of the Fourier quantile unit root test indicate that per capita CO2 emissions follow mean-reverting properties in middle quantile ranges for Canada, Russia and Iraq. This validates the asymmetric behaviors of per capita CO2 emissions in these countries. Originality/value The novelty of the work can be stated in two ways. First, among the available studies, this is the first paper to emphasize the importance of examining the convergence of per capita CO2 emissions among the top four oil exporters. Second, to the best of the knowledge, no study has yet been undertaken in which all these methods have been simultaneously applied. Sustainable environmental policies depend heavily on the CO2 series’ properties. Thus, the findings can provide significant environmental and economic implications for policymakers to construct feasible and optimal policies in climate change mitigation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 96-141
Author(s):  
A. Skrobotov ◽  
◽  

This paper studies the dynamic behaviour of transportation price in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah from 2004 to 2015 using disaggregated monthly price data of consumer price index (CPI). For that, unit root tests and cointegration tests with structural breaks are incorporated. The findings indicated that (i) both Zivot and Andrews unit root test and Perron unit root test provided fairly similar results; most of the break points occurred in 2008, (ii) the variables cointegrate in the Johansen cointegration test which indicates that there is a long-run relationship and (iii) the Gregory and Hansen test also demonstrated some form of cointegration with structural break(s), especially in 2008. Overall, this study intends to match the structural break points with the comparable critical economic events


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