Die finanzielle Entwicklung der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung – Simulationsrechnungen mit dem Rentensimulationsmodell MEA-Pensim

2012 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Gasche ◽  
Annette Holthausen ◽  
Johannes Rausch ◽  
Christina Wilke
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
Contribution Rate ◽  
Demographic Trend ◽  
Future Developments ◽  
Benefit Level

AbstractAgainst the background of the demographic trend the German Pension System is faced with the question of its financial sustainability. In order to predict future developments or potential reforms we apply a simulation model for the German Pension System (MEA-pensim), which enables us to replicate the pension system including all its crucial determinants (i. e. the population and the labour market). We present the model and discuss some selected simulations like the effect of different population and labour market developments on the contribution rate as well as the benefit level or the impacts of the proposal by the federal government to extend the supplementary period (Zurechnungszeit) for disability pensions.

scholarly journals Adequacy Analysis of the Basic Old-Age Pension System Based on Local Administrative Data in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 7196
Author(s):  
Qing Zhao ◽  
Zhen Li ◽  
Yihuan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Old Age ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Pension Benefit ◽  
Cost Ratio ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
Benefit Cost Ratio ◽  
Benefit Level ◽  
Benefit Cost ◽  
Pension Adequacy

There is no consensus on the judgment of the adequacy status of the old-age pension benefit in China at present. Therefore, clarification of various types of indicators and benchmarks of pension adequacy is urgently needed. According to the theoretical development of pension adequacy, this paper offers a comprehensive analysis of the benefit level of basic pension from the perspectives of poverty alleviation, income substitution, and financial sustainability. The calculation results based on local administrative data show that the current pension benefit in urban China is unbalanced: on the one hand, the average pension level of self and flexible employees cannot keep track of the local average consumption level or even the relative poverty standard in particular years and the individual replacement rates for a few nonstandard employees are less than the minimum standard of 40% set by the International Labor Organization, which means the pension benefit performs poorly in terms of consumption smoothing. On the other hand, the lifelong pension rights are much higher than the lifelong contribution obligations for new retirees. Under the trend of population ageing, the extremely high benefit–cost ratio means that the current retired generation is eroding the welfare of the current working generations, and the long-term financial sustainability of the pension system is facing challenges. In the future, in order to improve the benefit level of the basic old-age pension system in a sustainable way, we need to increase the average and individual replacement rates and reduce the benefit–cost ratio by consolidating contribution bases and delaying the number of contribution years.

scholarly journals Automatic balance mechanisms for notional defined contribution pension systems guaranteeing social adequacy and financial sustainability: an application to the Italian pension system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Devolder ◽  
Susanna Levantesi ◽  
Massimiliano Menzietti
Keyword(s):  
Objective Function ◽  
Nonlinear Optimization ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
Defined Contribution ◽  
Contribution Rate ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Automatic Balance ◽  
Notional Defined Contribution

Abstract Since the mid 1990s some European countries (including Italy) implemented a Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) pension system. Such a system is based on pay-as-you-go funding, while the pension amount is a function of the individual lifelong contribution. Despite many appealing features, the NDC system presents some drawbacks: first, it is vulnerable to demographic and economic shocks compromising the financial sustainability; second, it could fail to guarantee adequate pension benefits to pensioners. In order to reduce the first limit, automatic balance mechanisms (ABMs) have been proposed in literature and also implemented in Sweden, while solutions that combine financial sustainability and social adequacy have been applied only in a pay-as-you-go point system. The aim of this paper is to insert into the Italian NDC architecture ABMs that preserve social adequacy under financial sustainability constraints. Godinez-Olivares et al. (Insur Math Econ 69:117–126, 2016) built ABMs for a Defined Benefit pension system using nonlinear optimization techniques to calculate the optimal paths of the control variables representing the main drivers of the system: contribution rate, retirement age and indexation of pensions. Following this line of research, we have developed a nonlinear optimization model for the Italian NDC system based on three control variables: pensions indexation, notional rate and contribution rate. The objective function considers both social adequacy and contribution rate sustainability, under liquidity and sustainability constraints. In the numerical application we apply the model to the Italian pension system and test the sensitivity of the results to different economic scenarios and objective function parameters.

scholarly journals Linking retirement age to life expectancy in a Bismarckian system – the case of Germany

2016 ◽  
Vol 237 ◽  
pp. R22-R29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentin Vogt ◽  
Jörg Althammer
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Pension System ◽  
The Other ◽  
Leslie Matrix ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Detailed Calculation ◽  
Contribution Rate ◽  
Pension Insurance

In times of decreasing mortality, one way to stabilise a PAYG pension system is to interrelate the retirement age to the anticipated average lifespan. This paper investigates two approaches for Germany: one is to keep the average retirement duration constant, the other to define a constant share of the total lifespan for the retirement period. Our simulation model uses a Leslie matrix population projection, a Solow-Swan growth model and a detailed calculation of the German pension insurance budget. Our results show quite a significant impact on the insurance level and a rather small effect on the contribution rate, which is characteristic of a Bismarckian system.

scholarly journals Industrial legislation in Australia, 2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 002218562110082
Author(s):  
Eugene Schofield-Georgeson
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Workers Compensation ◽  
State Governments ◽  
The Past ◽  
Wage Theft ◽  
Economic Stimulus ◽  
Liberal Government

In 2020, the Federal Morrison Liberal Government scrambled to respond to the effects of the international coronavirus pandemic on the Australian labour market in two key ways. First, through largescale social welfare and economic stimulus (the ‘JobKeeper’ scheme) and second, through significant proposed reform to employment laws as part of a pandemic recovery package (the ‘Omnibus Bill’). Where the first measure was administered by employers, the second was largely designed to suspend and/or redefine labour protections in the interests of employers. In this respect, the message from the Federal Government was clear: that the costs of pandemic recovery should be borne by workers at the discretion of employers. State Labor Governments, by contrast, enacted a range of industrial protections. These included the first Australia ‘wage theft’ or underpayment frameworks on behalf of both employees and contractors in the construction industry. On-trend with state industrial legislation over the past 4 years, these state governments continued to introduce industrial manslaughter offences, increased access to workers’ compensation, labour hire licensing schemes and portable long service leave.

scholarly journals Pre-migration preparation and the labour market integration of skilled immigrants

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather Robbins
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Home Country ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Skilled Immigrants ◽  
Labour Market Integration ◽  
Regulatory Bodies ◽  
Labour Market Outcomes ◽  
Recent Attention

Canada has been attracting higher numbers of skilled immigrants in order to address labour shortages and fuel economic growth, yet the labour market outcomes of this group remain disappointingly poor. While a variety of initiatives have been introduced by the federal government to address the situation once skilled immigrants have arrived in Canada, recent attention has focused on preparing them for the labour market while they are still in their home country. These pre-migration preparation initiatives consist of the provision of information, referral and path-finding via online resources and in-person services. This paper will examine each initiative in order to evaluate its content and delivery system and to determine how effectively pre-migration initiatives allow skilled immigrants to prepare for the Canadian labour market and to what extent they contribute to the improvement of labour market integration. The paper also considers the key role played by the regulatory bodies and employers.

scholarly journals Demographics, Labour Market, and Pension Sustainability in Hungary

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 146-171
Author(s):  
András Olivér Németh ◽  
Petra Németh ◽  
Péter Vékás
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Pension System ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Market Trends ◽  
Employment Rates ◽  
Age Dependency Ratio

The sustainability of an unfunded pension system depends highly on demographic and labour market trends, i.e. how fertility, mortality, and employment rates change. In this paper we provide a brief summary of recent developments in these fields in Hungary and draw up a picture of the current situation. Then, we forecast the path of the economic old-age dependency ratio, i.e. the ratio of the elderly and employed populations. We make different alternative assumptions about fertility, mortality, and employment rates. According to our baseline scenario the dependency ratio is expected to rise from 40.6% to 77% by 2050. Such a sharp increase makes policy intervention inevitable. Based on our sensitivity analysis, the only viable remedy is increasing the retirement age.

The Long-Term Financial Sustainability of the Civil Service Pension Scheme in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-178
Author(s):  
Sheila Rose Darmaraj ◽  
Suresh Narayanan
Keyword(s):  
Civil Service ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
Defined Benefit ◽  
Contribution Rate ◽  
Replacement Rate ◽  
Deficit Model ◽  
Pension Payments

The civil service pension scheme (CSPS) in Malaysia is a defined benefit (DB), non-contributory system directly funded from the budget. An aging population, rising life expectancy, and ballooning pension payments underscore the need for reform. An annual pension deficit model was used to estimate the pension deficit over a period of 75 years under eight scenarios that compare the current scheme with changes in the pension deficit when three policy variables—retirement age, contribution rate, and replacement rate—are manipulated. We found the current scheme will not be financially sustainable. By increasing the retirement age, introducing employee contributions, and reducing the replacement rate, it is possible to delay the emergence of deficits and lengthen the period of sustainability of the scheme. However, a radical makeover is necessary to be fully sustainable and this might not be politically feasible.

scholarly journals On the financial sustainability of earnings-related pension schemes with ‘pay-as-you-go’ financing and the role of government-indexed bonds

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID A. ROBALINO ◽  
ANDRÁS BODOR
Keyword(s):  
Pension System ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
Alternative Measure ◽  
Role Of Government ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right

AbstractIn this paper we reconsider the idea of an earnings-related pension system with reserves invested in indexed government bonds as a mechanism to both ensure financial sustainability and improve security. The paper starts by reviewing the characterization of the sustainable rate of return of an earnings-related pension system with pay-as-you-go financing. We show that current proxies for the sustainable rate, including the Swedish ‘gyroscope’, are not stable and propose an alternative measure that depends on the growth of the buffer-stock and the pay-as-you-go asset. Using a simple one-sector macroeconomic model that embeds a notional account pension system we then show how GDP-indexed government bonds, if combined with the right measure for the sustainable rate of return on contributions, could be used to generate a sustainable and secure earnings-related pension system, without becoming a fiscal burden. The proposal is particularly attractive for countries considering reforms to earnings-related systems that have accumulated a large implicit pension debt. In this case, the government bonds allow the financing of this debt in a transparent way. The proposed mechanism can also facilitate the transition to a fully funded pension system when the government bonds are allowed to be traded.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document