3. Evaluating Predictions; or, How to Compare the Maya Calendar, Social Security, and Climate Change

2019 ◽  
pp. 69-98
Proceedings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
Eleonora Grilli ◽  
Elio Coppola ◽  
Tommaso La Mantia ◽  
Micòl Mastrocicco ◽  
Fernando Pulido ◽  
...  

Soil is a key component of ecosystems as it provides fundamental ecosystem functions and services, first of all supporting primary productivity, by physical, chemical and biological interaction with plants. However, soil loss and degradation are at present two of the most critical environmental issues. This phenomenon is particularly critical in Mediterranean areas, where inappropriate land management, in combination with the increasingly harshening of climatic conditions due to Climate Change, is leading to significant land degradation and desertification and is expected to worsen in the future, leading to economic and social crisis. In such areas, it is of fundamental importance to apply sustainable management practices, as conservation/restoration measures, to achieve Land Degradation Neutrality. This approach is at the core of the LIFE project Desert-Adapt “Preparing desertification areas for increased climate change” which is testing a new framework of sustainable land management strategies based on the key concept that the maintenance of ecosystems quality is necessarily connected to economic and social security in these fragile areas. The project will test adaptation strategies and measures in 10 sites of three Mediterranean areas under strong desertification risk, Alentejo in Portugal, Extremadura in Spain and Sicily in Italy. We present the baseline data of soil quality analysis from 32 sites in the 10 study areas of the project. Key drivers of soil quality and quantity were identified and used as basis to select sustainable management strategies focused on the maintenance, improvement and/or recovery of soil-based ecosystem services, with particular attention to climate change adaptation and land productivity. The final objective of the project is to demonstrate, according to the LDN approach, the best adaptation strategies to recover degraded areas from low-productive systems into resource-efficient and low-carbon economies to preserve ecosystem quality and booster economy and social security


TEME ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 769 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivana Ilić Krstić ◽  
Snežana Živković ◽  
Slobodan Milutinović

The latest World Bank report for 2016 on the impact of climate change on poverty states that climate change could lead to a growth of extremely poor population to the extent that 100 million people might be pushed into poverty by 2030. The report emphasizes that climate change can have different impacts, in particular negative ones, on the poor, who are unprepared for climate shock waves, such as sea level rise or large-scale droughts. The poor possess fewer resources and receive less support from their families or through local communities, the financial system, and even through social security measures, which is why they do not have sufficient capacity to adapt to climate change. Specific population groups, such as women and children, are particularly vulnerable.Omly few theoreticians have dealt with the question of how to help poor countries and poor communities in certain countries to face climate change, while focusing specially on the gender dimension of poverty.The World Bank report also states that efforts to protect the poor should include better access to healthcare and social security measures, improved protection against floods, and development of crops that are more resilient to high temperatures, all for the purpose of preventing the worst possible impacts of climate change on the poor. However, it needs to be stressed that any adaptation to climate change has to incorporate the gender dimension of poverty.Therefore, this paper will provide only a small contribution to the analysis of the issues pertaining to the gender dimension of poverty and its relation to climate change adaptation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-75
Author(s):  
Jesse Ribot ◽  
Papa Faye ◽  
Matthew D. Turner

Young Sahelian farmers are crossing the Sahara toward Europe. They are sold as slave labor, held ransom for money from their families, beaten and spit on. Many die in the desert or drown at sea. Yet, knowing the dangers, they go. The media depicts them as “climate refugees”—running from climate stress. These emigrants and their families, however, rarely mention the weather as a cause of their plight at home or their decisions to leave. They are fleeing abusive policies, exposure to markets, debt peonage, failures of social security systems and a sense of hopelessness in a world where they never expect to have a dignified role in their families or communities. Casting them as climate refugees occludes the multiple forces that lead them to emigrate and diverts attention from potential responses. This casting mobilizes, thus validating, European xenophobia to motivate Europeans to fight climate change. While climate investments appear responsible and progressive, the climate focus denies the colonial and postcolonial histories of emigrants’ plights, thereby threatening to deepen the crisis.


Author(s):  
Albert Persaud ◽  
Antonio Ventriglio ◽  
Koravangattu Valsraj ◽  
Dinesh Bhugra

Humankind is on the move all the time, but in the past few decades this movement has become massive in different parts of the world. We are living in an era of unprecedented mobility of ideas, technology, money, and people. Globalization has changed the world and is continuing to change the relationships between nation-states, corporations, and international organizations. By 2030, 80% of the world’s poor will be living in an area defined as ‘fragile’—a status that may reflect any number of political, social, security, economic, or environmental causes, forcing millions who are suffering to flee their country and homes. The CAPE Vulnerability Index tool helps assess the causes of violent conflict, terrorism, climate change, poverty, inequality and injustice, migration and displacement through this new axis of geopolitical determinants of health rather than focusing disproportionately on the effects. Leaders across the globe have a moral imperative to provide security, economic prosperity, and well-being to their people, but the policy needs to be fit for the local environment, be it geographical, political, or cultural, to help people to function well.


JAMA ◽  
1966 ◽  
Vol 197 (6) ◽  
pp. 413-416
Author(s):  
R. J. Myers
Keyword(s):  

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 723-729
Author(s):  
Roslyn Gleadow ◽  
Jim Hanan ◽  
Alan Dorin

Food security and the sustainability of native ecosystems depends on plant-insect interactions in countless ways. Recently reported rapid and immense declines in insect numbers due to climate change, the use of pesticides and herbicides, the introduction of agricultural monocultures, and the destruction of insect native habitat, are all potential contributors to this grave situation. Some researchers are working towards a future where natural insect pollinators might be replaced with free-flying robotic bees, an ecologically problematic proposal. We argue instead that creating environments that are friendly to bees and exploring the use of other species for pollination and bio-control, particularly in non-European countries, are more ecologically sound approaches. The computer simulation of insect-plant interactions is a far more measured application of technology that may assist in managing, or averting, ‘Insect Armageddon' from both practical and ethical viewpoints.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Millington ◽  
Peter M. Cox ◽  
Jonathan R. Moore ◽  
Gabriel Yvon-Durocher

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).


2001 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Moss ◽  
James Oswald ◽  
David Baines

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