scholarly journals CAUSES AND CHARACTERISTICS OF BUSINESS CYCLE IN LITHUANIA: A STRUCTURAL VARAPPROACH

Ekonomika ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 91 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurelija Proškutė
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Working Hours ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Technology Shock ◽  
The Business Cycle

We investigate the structural disturbances underlying the business cycle in Lithuania in the bivariate time series framework. In the structural VAR model constructed productivity, hours of work and output fluctuations over the business cycle are composed of technology and non-technology shocks. We find that a technology shock has a persistent positive effect on all three variables. Non-technology disturbance has a long-term impact on working hours and output, but it has a negligible short-run effect on productivity.Differently from Gali (1999), the study has revealed no significant correlation between productivity and working hours under the effects of technology shocks on Lithuanian data. In contrast with the results of developed countries, non-technology shocks result in a significant negative correlation between the working hours and labour productivity in Lithuania.Historical decomposition of output, productivity and working hours series allows distinguishing four different episodes of Lithuanian economy during the analysed timeline. In 1999, negative technology shocks played the biggest role in pushing the output down. During the period 2001–2004, the real GDP growth was supported by productivity increase due to technology shocks; in 2005–2008, non-technology shocks and the higher working hours were fuelling output growth together with a positive impact of the technology shock on productivity growth. Finally, 2008–2011 is the period of negative technology and non-technology shocks.

scholarly journals Decomposition of the Business Cycle Shock and the Default Rate of SMEs in Korea

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 401-423
Author(s):  
Jaesung James Park ◽  
Joonkyo Hong ◽  
Sumi Na
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Default Rate ◽  
Technology Shock ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Impact

This paper, through a structural VAR identified by a long-run restriction which is imposed by a neoclassical growth model, decomposes the real price index of capital accumulation (= deflator for fixed capital accumulations/consumption expenditure deflator), labor productivity (= real GDP/total employee hours), and total employee hours into three business cycle shocks: (i) investment-specific technology shock, (ii) neutral technology shock, and (iii) non-technology shock, and explores which shock has played a significant role in contributing to decreases in the default rate of SMEs. Empirical results drawn from Korean data spanning from 2000:Q1 to 2016:Q2 indicate that when the two technology shocks arise by 1%p, the default rate decreases by 0.03%p to 0.05%p permanently. In contrast, the impact of the non-technology shock on the default rate is highly transitory : the default rate decreases by 0.02%p in response to the 1%p increment in non-technology shock but turns back to its initial level after about three quarters. These imply the technology shocks could account for the most of variations in the default rate of SMEs. Our empirical results, therefore, deliver the policy implication that SME financing should focus on innovative firms with aggressive funding.

IMPERFECT TRANSMISSION OF TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE CONSEQUENCES

2012 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 418-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamilton B. Fout ◽  
Neville R. Francis
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
American Economic Review ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Adjustment Cost ◽  
Temporary Increase ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Initial Wealth ◽  
Technology Shock ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Sustained Increase

We investigate the business cycle effects of imperfect transmission of technology shocks within a basic real business cycle (RBC) model along two dimensions. First, we assume that agents cannot distinguish a temporary increase in productivity growth from a sustained increase in the underlying growth rate of productivity and instead must conduct signal extraction exercises and update beliefs about the source of aggregated shocks. Second, we propose a technology adjustment cost resulting in the slow diffusion of technological innovations into the production process. Both of these impediments to the transmission of technology result in a large initial wealth effect, increasing investment and hours less, relative to the usual RBC model without these frictions. Furthermore, each of these features is capable of producing a decline in hours on impact of the technology shock matching the negative response in hours found in the data by such works as Gali [American Economic Review89(1), 249–271 (1999)].

scholarly journals Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?

1999 ◽  
Vol 89 (1) ◽  
pp. 249-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Galí
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monopolistic Competition ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
G7 Countries ◽  
Technology Shock ◽  
The Business Cycle

I estimate a decomposition of productivity and hours into technology and non-technology components. Two results stand out: (a) the estimated conditional correlations of hours and productivity are negative for technology shocks, positive for nontechnology shocks; (b) hours show a persistent decline in response to a positive technology shock. Most of the results hold for a variety of model specifications, and for the majority of G7 countries. The picture that emerges is hard to reconcile with a conventional real-business-cycle interpretation of business cycles, but is shown to be consistent with a simple model with monopolistic competition and sticky prices. (JEL E32, E24)

scholarly journals LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS UNDER TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS: THE ROLE OF SUBSISTENCE CONSUMPTION

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Sangyup Choi ◽  
Myungkyu Shim
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Market Dynamics ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Labor Market Dynamics ◽  
Short Run

This paper establishes new stylized facts about labor market dynamics in developing economies, which are distinct from those in advanced economies, and then proposes a simple model to explain them. We first show that the response of hours worked and employment to a technology shock—identified by a structural VAR model with either short-run or long-run restrictions—is substantially smaller in developing economies. We then present compelling empirical evidence that several structural factors related to the relevance of subsistence consumption across countries can jointly account for the relative volatility of employment to output and that of consumption to output. We argue that a standard real business cycle (RBC) model augmented with subsistence consumption can explain the several salient features of business cycle fluctuations in developing economies, especially their distinct labor market dynamics under technology shocks.

scholarly journals Asset Returns, the Business Cycle and the Labor Market

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 372-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Burkhard Heer ◽  
Alfred Maußner
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Working Hours ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Productivity Shocks ◽  
New Keynesian Models ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Sticky Wages

Abstract We review the labor market implications of recent real-business cycle and New Keynesian models that successfully replicate the empirical equity premium. We document the fact that all models reviewed in this article that do not feature either sticky wages or immobile labor between two production sectors as in Boldrin et al. (2001) imply a negative correlation of working hours and output that is not observed empirically. Within the class of Neo-Keynesian models, sticky prices alone are demonstrated to be less successful than rigid nominal wages with respect to the modeling of the labor market stylized facts. In addition, monetary shocks in these models are required to be much more volatile than productivity shocks to match statistics from both the asset and labor market.

scholarly journals Cyclical Fluctuation, Growth, and Stabilization: An Empirical Investigation of Dual Policy Objectives in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam Quarm ◽  
Mohamed Osman Elamin Busharads
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

In conventional economics, two types of macroeconomic policy i.e. fiscal policy and monetary policy are used to streamline the business cycle. This paper has examined the cyclical behavior of these variables over the business cycle of Bangladesh. The objective of this examination is to show whether policies (fiscal policy and monetary policy) in Bangladesh are taken with a motive to stabilize the economy or only to promote economic growth. In other words, it has examined whether the policies in Bangladesh are procyclical or countercyclical or acyclical. Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter has been used to separate the cyclical component of considered variables. Both correlation and regression-based analysis have provided that in Bangladesh government expenditure and interest rates behave procyclically, but money supply behaves acyclically over the business cycle. Besides, this paper has tried to identify the long-term as well as the short-term relationship between real GDP and the macroeconomic policy variables with the help of the Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and block exogeneity Wald test. Through these analyses, this study has found that fiscal policy has a significant impact on GDP growth both in the short-run and long-run. In the case of monetary policy, although the interest rate has an impact on real output both in the short-run and long-run, the money supply has neither a short-run nor long-run effect on output growth.

Does overconfidence pay off when things go well? CEO overconfidence, firm performance, and the business cycle

2020 ◽  
pp. 147612702093065
Author(s):  
Tomas Reyes ◽  
Roberto S Vassolo ◽  
Edgar E Kausel ◽  
Diamela Peña Torres ◽  
Stephen Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Firm Performance ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Dot Com

We investigate the moderating effect of the business cycle on the positive relationship between CEO overconfidence and firm performance. We propose that the expansion years of the business cycle enhance the positive impact of overconfident CEOs on firms’ performance. However, this effect is reduced during recession periods. We analyze the effect of CEO overconfidence on the Return on Equity of publicly listed US firms from 1992 to 2015, a period that includes the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2001 and the Great Recession of 2008–2009. The empirical findings support the hypotheses that expansion periods increase the positive relationship between overconfident CEOs and firms’ performance, but this positive effect weakens during recessions.

scholarly journals Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle

2008 ◽  
Vol 100 (3) ◽  
pp. 392-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincenzo Atella ◽  
Marco Centoni ◽  
Gianluca Cubadda
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document