scholarly journals Unsupervised marine vessel trajectory prediction using LSTM network and wild bootstrapping techniques

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 718-737
Author(s):  
Julius Venskus ◽  
Povilas Treigys ◽  
Jurita Markevičiūtė
Keyword(s):  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Incident Management ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Marine Traffic ◽  
Prediction Probability ◽  
Prediction Region ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Lstm Network ◽  
Prediction Regions

Increasing intensity in maritime traffic pushes the requirement in better preventionoriented incident management system. Observed regularities in data could help to predict vessel movement from previous vessels trajectory data and make further movement predictions under specific traffic and weather conditions. However, the task is burden by the fact that the vessels behave differently in different geographical sea regions, sea ports, and their trajectories depends on the vessel type as well. The model must learn spatio-temporal patterns representing vessel trajectories and should capture vessel’s position relation to both space and time. The authors of the paper proposes new unsupervised trajectory prediction with prediction regions at arbitrary probabilities using two methods: LSTM prediction region learning and wild bootstrapping. Results depict that both the autoencoder-based and wild bootstrapping region prediction algorithms can predict vessel trajectory and be applied for abnormal marine traffic detection by evaluating obtained prediction region in an unsupervised manner with desired prediction probability. 

A prediction model of vessel trajectory based on generative adversarial network

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Senjie Wang ◽  
Zhengwei He
Keyword(s):  
Safety Management ◽  
Route Planning ◽  
Local Area ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Generative Adversarial Network ◽  
Ship Traffic ◽  
Adversarial Network ◽  
Historical Trajectory ◽  
Vessel Motion

Abstract Trajectory prediction is an important support for analysing the vessel motion behaviour, judging the vessel traffic risk and collision avoidance route planning of intelligent ships. To improve the accuracy of trajectory prediction in complex situations, a Generative Adversarial Network with Attention Module and Interaction Module (GAN-AI) is proposed to predict the trajectories of multiple vessels. Firstly, GAN-AI can infer all vessels’ future trajectories simultaneously when in the same local area. Secondly, GAN-AI is based on adversarial architecture and trained by competition for better convergence. Thirdly, an interactive module is designed to extract the group motion features of the multiple vessels, to achieve better performance at the ship encounter situations. GAN-AI has been tested on the historical trajectory data of Zhoushan port in China; the experimental results show that the GAN-AI model improves the prediction accuracy by 20%, 24% and 72% compared with sequence to sequence (seq2seq), plain GAN, and the Kalman model. It is of great significance to improve the safety management level of the vessel traffic service system and judge the degree of ship traffic risk.

scholarly journals Measuring Accessibility Based on Improved Impedance and Attractive Functions Using Taxi Trajectory Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 112
Author(s):  
Helai Huang ◽  
Jialing Wu ◽  
Fang Liu ◽  
Yiwei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Waiting Time ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Transportation Systems ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Destination Attractiveness ◽  
Urban Accessibility ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Taxi Trajectory

Accessibility has attracted wide interest from urban planners and transportation engineers. It is an important indicator to support the development of sustainable policies for transportation systems in major events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Taxis are a vital travel mode in urban areas that provide door-to-door services for individuals to perform urban activities. This study, with taxi trajectory data, proposes an improved method to evaluate dynamic accessibility depending on traditional location-based measures. A new impedance function is introduced by taking characteristics of the taxi system into account, such as passenger waiting time and the taxi fare rule. An improved attraction function is formulated by considering dynamic availability intensity. Besides, we generate five accessibility scenarios containing different indicators to compare the variation of accessibility. A case study is conducted with the data from Shenzhen, China. The results show that the proposed method found reduced urban accessibility, but with a higher value in southern center areas during the evening peak period due to short passenger waiting time and high destination attractiveness. Each spatio-temporal indicator has an influence on the variation in accessibility.

scholarly journals Performance Evaluation of Neural Network-Based Short-Term Solar Irradiation Forecasts

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3030
Author(s):  
Simon Liebermann ◽  
Jung-Sup Um ◽  
YoungSeok Hwang ◽  
Stephan Schlüter
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Lstm Network ◽  
The Time Domain

Due to the globally increasing share of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power, precise forecasts for weather data are becoming more and more important. To compute such forecasts numerous authors apply neural networks (NN), whereby models became ever more complex recently. Using solar irradiation as an example, we verify if this additional complexity is required in terms of forecasting precision. Different NN models, namely the long-short term (LSTM) neural network, a convolutional neural network (CNN), and combinations of both are benchmarked against each other. The naive forecast is included as a baseline. Various locations across Europe are tested to analyze the models’ performance under different climate conditions. Forecasts up to 24 h in advance are generated and compared using different goodness of fit (GoF) measures. Besides, errors are analyzed in the time domain. As expected, the error of all models increases with rising forecasting horizon. Over all test stations it shows that combining an LSTM network with a CNN yields the best performance. However, regarding the chosen GoF measures, differences to the alternative approaches are fairly small. The hybrid model’s advantage lies not in the improved GoF but in its versatility: contrary to an LSTM or a CNN, it produces good results under all tested weather conditions.

scholarly journals Bootstrap joint prediction regions for sequences of missing values in spatio-temporal datasets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Lucia Parrella ◽  
Giuseppina Albano ◽  
Cira Perna ◽  
Michele La Rocca
Keyword(s):  
Missing Data ◽  
Missing Values ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Sample Path ◽  
Temporal Relationships ◽  
Empirical Performance ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Joint Prediction ◽  
Point Forecast ◽  
Prediction Regions

AbstractMissing data reconstruction is a critical step in the analysis and mining of spatio-temporal data. However, few studies comprehensively consider missing data patterns, sample selection and spatio-temporal relationships. To take into account the uncertainty in the point forecast, some prediction intervals may be of interest. In particular, for (possibly long) missing sequences of consecutive time points, joint prediction regions are desirable. In this paper we propose a bootstrap resampling scheme to construct joint prediction regions that approximately contain missing paths of a time components in a spatio-temporal framework, with global probability $$1-\alpha $$ 1 - α . In many applications, considering the coverage of the whole missing sample-path might appear too restrictive. To perceive more informative inference, we also derive smaller joint prediction regions that only contain all elements of missing paths up to a small number k of them with probability $$1-\alpha $$ 1 - α . A simulation experiment is performed to validate the empirical performance of the proposed joint bootstrap prediction and to compare it with some alternative procedures based on a simple nominal coverage correction, loosely inspired by the Bonferroni approach, which are expected to work well standard scenarios.

scholarly journals Extracting Stops from Spatio-Temporal Trajectories within Dynamic Contextual Features

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 690
Author(s):  
Tao Wu ◽  
Huiqing Shen ◽  
Jianxin Qin ◽  
Longgang Xiang
Keyword(s):  
Moving Objects ◽  
Major Effect ◽  
Location Based Services ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
The Road ◽  
Contextual Features ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Gps Trajectories ◽  
Time Distance ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Identifying stops from GPS trajectories is one of the main concerns in the study of moving objects and has a major effect on a wide variety of location-based services and applications. Although the spatial and non-spatial characteristics of trajectories have been widely investigated for the identification of stops, few studies have concentrated on the impacts of the contextual features, which are also connected to the road network and nearby Points of Interest (POIs). In order to obtain more precise stop information from moving objects, this paper proposes and implements a novel approach that represents a spatio-temproal dynamics relationship between stopping behaviors and geospatial elements to detect stops. The relationship between the candidate stops based on the standard time–distance threshold approach and the surrounding environmental elements are integrated in a complex way (the mobility context cube) to extract stop features and precisely derive stops using the classifier classification. The methodology presented is designed to reduce the error rate of detection of stops in the work of trajectory data mining. It turns out that 26 features can contribute to recognizing stop behaviors from trajectory data. Additionally, experiments on a real-world trajectory dataset further demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in improving the accuracy of identifying stops from trajectories.

Long Short-Term Memory-Based Human-Driven Vehicle Longitudinal Trajectory Prediction in a Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Environment

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812199347
Author(s):  
Lei Lin ◽  
Siyuan Gong ◽  
Srinivas Peeta ◽  
Xia Wu
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Autonomous Vehicle ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Road Transportation ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

The advent of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) will change driving behavior and travel environment, and provide opportunities for safer, smoother, and smarter road transportation. During the transition from the current human-driven vehicles (HDVs) to a fully CAV traffic environment, the road traffic will consist of a “mixed” traffic flow of HDVs and CAVs. Equipped with multiple sensors and vehicle-to-vehicle communications, a CAV can track surrounding HDVs and receive trajectory data of other CAVs in communication range. These trajectory data can be leveraged with recent advances in deep learning methods to potentially predict the trajectories of a target HDV. Based on these predictions, CAVs can react to circumvent or mitigate traffic flow oscillations and accidents. This study develops attention-based long short-term memory (LSTM) models for HDV longitudinal trajectory prediction in a mixed flow environment. The model and a few other LSTM variants are tested on the Next Generation Simulation US 101 dataset with different CAV market penetration rates (MPRs). Results illustrate that LSTM models that utilize historical trajectories from surrounding CAVs perform much better than those that ignore information even when the MPR is as low as 0.2. The attention-based LSTM models can provide more accurate multi-step longitudinal trajectory predictions. Further, grid-level average attention weight analysis is conducted and the CAVs with higher impact on the target HDV’s future trajectories are identified.

Forest path condition monitoring based on crowd-based trajectory data analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Francisco Arcas-Tunez ◽  
Fernando Terroso-Saenz
Keyword(s):  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Road Network ◽  
Road Networks ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Country Road ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Sport Activities ◽  
Path Condition ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The City

The development of Road Information Acquisition Systems (RIASs) based on the Mobile Crowdsensing (MCS) paradigm has been widely studied for the last years. In that sense, most of the existing MCS-based RIASs focus on urban road networks and assume a car-based scenario. However, there exist a scarcity of approaches that pay attention to rural and country road networks. In that sense, forest paths are used for a wide range of recreational and sport activities by many different people and they can be also affected by different problems or obstacles blocking them. As a result, this work introduces SAMARITAN, a framework for rural-road network monitoring based on MCS. SAMARITAN analyzes the spatio-temporal trajectories from cyclists extracted from the fitness application Strava so as to uncover potential obstacles in a target road network. The framework has been evaluated in a real-world network of forest paths in the city of Cieza (Spain) showing quite promising results.

MDTP

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 1289-1297
Author(s):  
Ziquan Fang ◽  
Lu Pan ◽  
Lu Chen ◽  
Yuntao Du ◽  
Yunjun Gao
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Feature Modeling ◽  
Traffic Prediction ◽  
Interactive System ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Prediction Approach

Traffic prediction has drawn increasing attention for its ubiquitous real-life applications in traffic management, urban computing, public safety, and so on. Recently, the availability of massive trajectory data and the success of deep learning motivate a plethora of deep traffic prediction studies. However, the existing neural-network-based approaches tend to ignore the correlations between multiple types of moving objects located in the same spatio-temporal traffic area, which is suboptimal for traffic prediction analytics. In this paper, we propose a multi-source deep traffic prediction framework over spatio-temporal trajectory data, termed as MDTP. The framework includes two phases: spatio-temporal feature modeling and multi-source bridging. We present an enhanced graph convolutional network (GCN) model combined with long short-term memory network (LSTM) to capture the spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics of traffic in the feature modeling phase. In the multi-source bridging phase, we propose two methods, Sum and Concat, to connect the learned features from different trajectory data sources. Extensive experiments on two real-life datasets show that MDTP i) has superior efficiency, compared with classical time-series methods, machine learning methods, and state-of-the-art neural-network-based approaches; ii) offers a significant performance improvement over the single-source traffic prediction approach; and iii) performs traffic predictions in seconds even on tens of millions of trajectory data. we develop MDTP + , a user-friendly interactive system to demonstrate traffic prediction analysis.

Calibrating trajectory data for spatio-temporal similarity analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Su ◽  
Kai Zheng ◽  
Jiamin Huang ◽  
Haozhou Wang ◽  
Xiaofang Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Similarity Analysis ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Spatio Temporal
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