scholarly journals EXCHANGE RATE RESPONSE TO OIL PRICE AND POLITICAL SHOCKS: WHAT CAN NIGERIA DO?

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-246
Author(s):  
Augustine Adebayo KUTU ◽  
David Alaba ALORI ◽  
Harold NGALAWA
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Political Institution ◽  
Oil Shocks ◽  
Institutional Factor ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Cost

This study determines how political institution (factor) and oil prices play a significant role in exchange rate instabilities in Nigeria between and . Employing a VECM model with time series and structural analysis, the study decomposes the oil prices into positive and negative shocks. The findings show a symmetric impact from positive and negative oil shocks while political/institutional factor, on the contrary, indicates an asymmetric impact on exchange rates. The study, therefore, recommends that strong political institution that promotes good governance, accountability and transparency should be put in place. This will untimely reduce the cost of importation that prevents the country from reaping the benefits of positive oil price shocks. While this study employs one of the unique approaches to the study of exchange rates worldwide, it also provides insights to how institutional/political factor contribute to exchange rate instability in Nigeria.

Common Trends and Common Cycles in Oil Price and Real Exchange Rate

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hem C. Basnet ◽  
Puneet Vatsa ◽  
Subhash Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Cycle Decomposition ◽  
The Real ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Common Cycles

This study explores the long- and short-run movement between oil prices and the real exchange rates of two large oil-exporting countries – Canada and Norway. Cointegration and serial correlation common features tests are jointly used to identify the long-term common trend and short-term common cycles. Our test results find that oil prices and the real exchange rates of the Canadian Dollar and the Norwegian Krone have two shared trends and one shared cycle. The trend–cycle decomposition shows a great deal of positive comovement among the trend and cyclical components. The two currencies show economic dynamics very similar to crude oil prices. They do not exhibit any qualitative differences in the trajectory of the trend and cycles when controlling for different crude oil prices. Our results indicate that oil price fluctuations play significant role in explaining the exchange rate movements of oil-exporting countries.

scholarly journals Oil Prices and the Algerian Exchange Rate: Is there any Difference with Hidden Co-Integration?

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Hicham Ayad
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Shocks ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Analysis

Abstract Research background: The aim of this paper is to examine the long run relationship among oil prices and the Algerian Dinar exchange rate over the period January 1995–February 2020 in Algeria as one of the most important oil-exporting countries and one of the OPEC members. Purpose: This study investigated the co-integration relationship between oil prices and exchange rate in Algeria by testing the long-run relationship between the two variables and their positive and negative shocks. Research methodology: the study applied both the traditional co-integration analysis using Engle-Granger, Phillips-Ouliaris and Johansen-Juselius tests and the hidden co-integration presented by Granger and Yoon (2002). Results: The results revealed that there is no evidence of a co-movement and linkage between oil prices and exchange rate in Algeria over the period of study neither with the original series nor between the cumulative components whatever the dependent variable. Novelty: This paper fills in the missing link between the Algerian Dinar exchange rate and oil prices especially with the absence of the hidden co-integration analysis in the case of Algeria and most of the developing countries. To deal with the oil shocks according to Apergis and Miller (2007) and Narayan and Gupta (2015) studies where when they suggested distinguishing between the negative and positive oil price shocks because the asymmetric effect on the macroeconomic variables.

scholarly journals The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Oil-Dependent Countries’ Currencies: The Case of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 431
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Czech ◽  
Ibrahim Niftiyev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The paper aims to assess the relationship between Azerbaijani and Kazakhstani exchange rates and crude oil prices volatility. The study applies the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The paper concentrates on Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, the post-Soviet countries considered as some of the most oil-dependent countries in the Caspian Sea region. The impulse response functions suggest that the rise of crude oil prices is associated with the exchange rates decrease and thus with an Azerbaijani manat and Kazakhstani tenge appreciation against the U.S. dollar. Moreover, the results suggest that an oil price increase leads to the rise of Azerbaijani international reserves. However, the results are insignificant for the Kazakhstani foreign exchange reserves. Additionally, the study reveals a negative and significant relationship between crude oil prices and USD/KZT in both pre-crisis and the COVID-19 crisis periods. We reveal that the correlation has been stronger during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the relationship is not significant in the case of the Azerbaijani manat. The USD/AZN exchange rate has been stable since 2017, and the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic has not caused a change in the exchange rate and a weakening of the Azerbaijani currency, despite significant drops in crude oil prices.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

scholarly journals WTI OIL SHOCKS IN EASTERN EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS: A VAR APPROACH

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Dias ◽  
◽  
Hortense Santos ◽  
Paula Heliodoro ◽  
Cristina Vasco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Oil Shocks ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Wald Tests ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
European Stock Markets

The 2020 Russia-Saudi Oil Price War was an economic war triggered in March 2020 by Saudi Arabia in response to Russia’s refusal to reduce oil production to keep oil prices at a moderate level. In view of these events, this study aims to analyze oil shocks (WTI) in the eastern European stock markets, namely the stock indices of Hungary (BUX), Croatia (CROBE), Russia (MOEX), Czech Republic (PRAGUE), Slovakia (SAX 16), Slovenia (SBI TOP), Bulgaria (SOFIX), from September 2019 to January 2021. The results show mostly structural breakdowns in March 2020, while the VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests model shows two-way shocks between oil (WTI) and the stock markets analyzed. These findings show that the hypothesis of portfolio diversification may be called into question. As a final discussion, we consider that investors should avoid investments in stock markets, at least as long as this pandemic last, and rebalance their portfolios into assets considered “safe haven” for the purpose of mitigating risk and improving the efficiency of their portfolios.

scholarly journals Time-Gap effects of crude oil prices on the foreign exchange rates: Evidence from Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 31-44
Author(s):  
Nenubari Ikue John ◽  
Emeka Nkoro ◽  
Jeremiah Anietie
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
External Information ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

There is a pool of techniques and methods in addressing dynamics behaviors in higher frequency data, prominent among them is the ARCH/GARCH techniques. In this paper, the various types and assumptions of the ARCH/GARCH models were tried in examining the dynamism of exchange rate and international crude oil prices in Nigeria. And it was observed that the Nigerian foreign exchange rates behaviors did not conform with the assumptions of the ARCH/GARCH models, hence this paper adopted Lag Variables Autoregressive (LVAR) techniques originally developed by Agung and Heij multiplier to examine the dynamic response of the Nigerian foreign exchange rates to crude oil prices. The Heij coefficient was used to calculate the dynamic multipliers while the Engel & Granger two-step technique was used for cointegration analysis.  The results revealed an insignificant dynamic long-term response of the exchange rate to crude oil prices within the periods under review. The coefficient of dynamism was insignificantly in most cases of the sub-periods. The paper equally revealed that the significance of the dynamic multipliers depends greatly on external information about both market indicators which are two-way interactions. Thus, the paper recommends periodic intervention in the foreign exchange market by the monetary authorities to stabilize the market against any shocks in the international crude oil market, since crude oil is the main source of foreign exchange in Nigeria.

PALM OIL PRICE–EXCHANGE RATE NEXUS IN INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-180
Author(s):  
Afees Salisu ◽  
Abdulsalam Abidemi Sikiru
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Predictive Content

In this study, we extend the literature analyzing the predictive content of commodity prices for exchange rates by examining the role of palm oil price. Our analysis focuses on Indonesia and Malaysia, the two top producers and exporters of palm oil, and utilizes daily data covering the period from December 12, 2011 to March 29, 2021, which is partitioned into two sub-samples based on the COVID-19 pandemic. Relying on a methodology that accommodates some salient features of the variables of interest, we find that on average the in-sample predictability of palm oil price for exchange rate movements is stronger for Indonesia than for Malaysia. While Indonesia’s exchange rate appreciates due to a rise in palm oil price regardless of the choice of predictive model, Malaysia’s exchange rate only appreciates after adjusting for oil price. However, both exchange rates do not seem to be resilient to the COVID-19 pandemic as they depreciate amidst dwindling palm oil price. Similar outcomes are observed for the out-of-sample predictability analysis. We highlight avenues for future research and the implications of our results for portfolio diversification strategies.

On the asymmetric response of the exchange rate to shocks in the crude oil market

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 839-852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huthaifa Alqaralleh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the nonlinear dynamics in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate for a sample from the Group of Twenty (G20) over the period 1994:1-2019:1. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly time series data covering the period1994:1-2019:1, the author first use the non-parametric triples test of Randles et al. (1980) to ascertain the existence of asymmetric properties in the sample of exchange rates. Then the author used the nonlinear ARDL cointegration approach developed by Shin et al. (2014) to examine the reaction of these exchange rates to the oil price shocks. Findings This study has identified significant evidence that the exchange rate is asymmetrically distributed, with the effect that high appreciation of the exchange rate is followed by slower depreciation. The NARDL results support such asymmetry even more strongly because in the test the exchange rate is shown to react differently in the long term to positive and negative shocks in oil prices. Another major finding was that the speed of adjustment differed over the sample, as the cumulative dynamic multipliers effect highlighted. Research limitations/implications This change in direction and the employment of non-linear technique can be to obtain better insight into the model specification, which the author believes, will not only enhance the findings in the literature but also enhance forecasting and decision-making. Practical implications A practical implication of this change is the possibility that policymakers and participants concerned with exchange rate stability should intervene in the market to alleviate the unfavourable impact of oil price shocks on the exchange rate. Originality/value Addressing this nonlinear dynamic in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate have at least the following two important reasons: asymmetry and regime change are types of nonlinearities that affect the market dynamics, especially, over marked sample period with such financial crises as the global financial crises of 2007, thereby violating the linear models. Adopting an asymmetric cointegration technique permits to incorporate cointegrated positive and negative components of the considered series.

scholarly journals Does the Development of Bioenergy Exacerbate the Price Increase of Maize?

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 4845
Author(s):  
Zhengyi Dong
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Biomass Energy ◽  
Price Increase ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Cost Channel ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between oil prices and food prices is complex, and maize is the most prominent example. Whether the development of bioenergy will exacerbate the price increase of maize caused by the increasing price of oil is a topic that is attracting great attention. This paper studies the relationship between oil prices and maize prices. First, the effects of the development of biomass energy on maize price in theory is analyzed by constructing a theoretical model that includes the effects of the cost channel and the demand channel, while setting the maize–oil price ratio as a trigger for the demand channel. Then, this paper empirically analyzes the price data. Both theoretical and empirical analyses show the effects of the demand channel in the long term; that is, the effect of the development of bioenergy on maize prices is weak, and maize prices did not increase sharply. The effect of the cost channel is the main cause of the increases in the price of maize and other foods.

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