scholarly journals Dutch Disease-cum-financialization Booms and External Balance Cycles in Developing Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 459-477 ◽  
Author(s):  
ALBERTO BOTTA
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Development Pattern ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run

ABSTRACT We formally investigate the medium-to-long-run dynamics emerging out of a Dutch disease-cum-financialization phenomenon. We take inspiration from the most recent Colombian development pattern. The “pure” Dutch disease first causes deindustrialization by permanently appreciating the economy’s exchange rate in the long run. Financialization, i.e., booming capital inflows taking place in a climate of natural resource-led financial overoptimism, causes medium-run exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic instability. This jeopardizes manufacturing development even further by raising macroeconomic uncertainty. We advise the adoption of capital controls and a developmentalist monetary policy to tackle these two distinct but often intertwined phenomena.

scholarly journals Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Unemployment in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol VI (II) ◽  
pp. 49-66
Author(s):  
Atiq Ur Rahman ◽  
Salyha Zulfiqar Ali Shah ◽  
Qamar uz Zaman
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Stability Tests ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Unemployment is an alarming issue for bothdeveloped and developing countries, which sometimesvaries from region to region as well. Unemployment accompaniedwith Exchange Rate Volatility (ERV, hereafter) worsens thesituation. This paper tries to explore the relationship between ERVand unemployment and other selected factors in the case ofPakistan from 1980 to 2018. After necessary simulation, the studysupported the analyses through the autoregressive distributed lagmodel. Where, long-run coefficient reveals that ERV and exportsboth are positively affecting unemployment; whereas, import isinversely related to unemployment. Alternatively, export and GDPare inversely affecting unemployment in the short run; further,stability tests also support the relationship between the selectedvariables to achieve the long-run equilibrium. The study furthersuggests that the Government of Pakistan need to stabilizeexchange rate to control unemployment, which is 8 percent in thelong-run and 11 percent in the short run.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Monetary Policy Shocks

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gbalam Peter Eze ◽  
Tonprebofa Waikumo Okotori
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Forecast Error Variance ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The study investigated the influence of innovations in monetary policy on the rate of exchange volatility in Nigeria. The research adopted vector error correction model as well as impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition function in the estimation using two models derived in the study. Monthly data between the periods 2009 and 2019 were adopted for the research. Our findings show that in the long run; all the monetary policy variables have a significant long run correlation with volatility in the exchange rate; but that money supply and the rate of exchange seem to have significant short run impact on volatility in the exchange rate, the other variables such as liquidity ratio or monetary policy rate did not show a significant short run relationship with the volatility in the exchange rate. Further findings on the volatility impulse response and the forecast error variance decomposition suggest a significant link between volatility in the exchange rate and money supply though the link was much more pronounced. The use of monthly data shows that the managed exchange rate regime by the CBN seems to have the desired effect in exchange rate volatility and thus having a critical impact on inflationary spikes.

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

scholarly journals Difference in intensity of exchange rate factors in countries with targeting inflation regime

2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 125-143
Author(s):  
A.M. Grebenkina ◽  
◽  
A.A. Khandruev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Market Factors

The paper analyzes features of prime factors of nominal exchange rate in countries with inflation targeting regime and high cross-border financial openness. The paper aims to test the hypothesis about different strength of these factors in developed countries and emerging market economies (EMEs). Using a panel vector autoregressive model and panel data for 2010 — 1st half-year 2020 period for 9 developed countries and 10 EMEs, the paper estimates significance of factors from the side of global commodity and financial markets, as well as the side of national monetary policy. The paper finds some evidence of greater sensitivity of EMEs’ nominal exchange rate to global commodity and financial market factors and a greater sensitivity of developed countries’ nominal exchange rate to national monetary policy. The paper regards this result as an argument for EMEs’ exchange rate policy specification, considering the necessity to cope with heightened exchange rate volatility in these countries under the influence of external factors.

scholarly journals The dynamic effect of exchange-rate volatility on Turkish exports: Parsimonious error-correction model approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 429-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erdal Demirhan ◽  
Banu Demirhan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Dynamic Effect ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Short Run

This paper aims to investigate the effect of exchange-rate stability on real export volume in Turkey, using monthly data for the period February 2001 to January 2010. The Johansen multivariate cointegration method and the parsimonious error-correction model are applied to determine long-run and short-run relationships between real export volume and its determinants. In this study, the conditional variance of the GARCH (1, 1) model is taken as a proxy for exchange-rate stability, and generalized impulse-response functions and variance-decomposition analyses are applied to analyze the dynamic effects of variables on real export volume. The empirical findings suggest that exchangerate stability has a significant positive effect on real export volume, both in the short and the long run.

scholarly journals Dynamic Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Based on VAR-DCC-GARCH Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 03018
Author(s):  
Xuhang Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility

Based on the daily data of Shibor and nominal exchange rate from 2006 to 2019, this paper constructs VAR model and uses Granger causality test and impulse response model to analyze the dynamic relationship between exchange rate and interest rate. Based on the DCC-GARCH model, this paper analyzes the correlation between exchange rate volatility and interest rate volatility, and concludes that there is a weak negative correlation between exchange rate and interest rate. Both exchange rate and monetary policy will have an important impact on China’s economic environment, so it is of great practical significance to study the joint impact of exchange rate and monetary policy.

scholarly journals The Main Determinants of Capital Inflows in Emerging Market Economies: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-167
Author(s):  
Fatma Taşdemir
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Emerging Market Economies ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Market Economies ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Main Determinants

There is a bulk of literature in analyzing the impacts of exchange rate regimes (ERRs) on capital flows into emerging market economies. However, these studies mainly do not take into account integration and cointegration properties of variables. This paper aims to tackle this important issue by investigating whether ERRs matter for the impacts of the main push (global financial conditions, GFC) and pull (real GDP) factors on capital inflows into emerging market economies. We find that worsening GFC decreases all types of capital inflow except foreign direct investments in case of floating ERR. This impact is statistically significant only for portfolio inflows in case of managed ERR. The pull factor is often positive and statistically significant in determining capital inflows in the long-run only under floating ERRs. These results suggest that the long-run impacts of the main pull and push factors on capital inflows are often magnified under more flexible ERRs.

scholarly journals Are the Responses of Sectoral Energy Imports Asymmetric to Exchange Rate Volatilities in Pakistan? Evidence From Recent Foreign Exchange Regime

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Saqib ◽  
Tze-Haw Chan ◽  
Alexey Mikhaylov ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bound Test

Growing energy demand but stagnant production followed by volatile exchange rate leads Pakistan to energy imbalances and potential economic contraction. Yet, studies on sectoral energy imports are limited and inconclusive without accessing the asymmetric effect of currency fluctuations. We examine the impacts of Pakistani rupee volatility on monthly energy imports based on the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimations. Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests were used to conduct unit root testing, and the bound testing approach was used to examine the long-term cointegration. The long-run asymmetry was tested with the Wald test, and using the NARDL model, we examined both short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on energy imports. The bound test was established and supported through ECMt−1 (t-test), cointegrating the relationship between exchange rate volatility and energy imports in a long term. Among others, both short-run and long-run asymmetric effects were found for crude oil, coal, electricity, and petroleum products. Rupee depreciation increased crude oil and electricity imports, while the appreciation effects were insignificant. Overall, the empirical assessment reveals that the foreign exchange volatility effect is sectoral specific and asymmetric in Pakistan. It offers new insights into re-strategizing the energy policy and refining the import substitution plan.

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