scholarly journals Value and growth stocks in Brazil: risks and returns for one - and two-dimensional portfolios under different economic conditions

2011 ◽  
Vol 22 (56) ◽  
pp. 189-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leandro da Rocha Santos ◽  
Roberto Marcos da Silva Montezano
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
High Price ◽  
Value Stocks ◽  
Growth Stocks

For empirical purposes, value stocks are usually defined as those traded at low price-to-earnings ratios (stock prices divided by earnings per share), low price-to-book ratios (stock prices divided by book value per share) or high dividend yields (dividends per share divided by stock prices). Growth stocks, on the other hand, are traded at high price-to-earnings ratios, high price-to-book ratios or low dividend yields. Academic research so far produced, international and Brazilian alike, shows that value stocks outperform growth stocks, challenging the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which states that the market prices of traded stocks are the best estimate of their intrinsic values. Most studies use a single ratio to sort stocks on percentiles; risks (generally defined as beta or standard deviations) and returns are then calculated for the resulting value and growth portfolios. In the present paper, we aim to further contribute to the growing literature on the field by applying a method not previously tested on the Brazilian market. We build portfolios sorted by the price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios alone and by a combination of both in order to assess value and growth stocks' risks and returns on the Brazilian stock market between 1989 and 2009. Furthermore, our risk analysis may be regarded as the paper's main contribution, since its approach departs from conventional risk concepts, as we not only test for beta: portfolios' returns are measured under different economic conditions. Results support a pervasive value premium in the Brazilian stock market. Risk analysis shows that this premium holds under every economic condition analyzed, suggesting that value stocks are indeed less risky. Beta proved not to be a satisfactory risk measure. Portfolios sorted by the price-to-earnings ratio yielded the best results.

Stock prices' long memory in China and the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengxun Tan ◽  
Yao Fu ◽  
Hong Cheng ◽  
Juan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Long Memory ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Information Disclosure ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Content Type

PurposeThis study aims to examine the long memory as well as the effect of structural breaks in the US and the Chinese stock markets. More importantly, it further explores possible causes of the differences in long memory between these two stock markets.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ various methods to estimate the memory parameters, including the modified R/S, averaged periodogram, Lagrange multiplier, local Whittle and exact local Whittle estimations.FindingsChina's two stock markets exhibit long memory, whereas the two US markets do not. Furthermore, long memory is robust in Chinese markets even when we test break-adjusted data. The Chinese stock market does not meet the efficient market hypothesis (EMHs), including the efficiency of information disclosure, regulations and supervision, investors' behavior, and trading mechanisms. Therefore, its stock prices' sluggish response to information leads to momentum effects and long memory.Originality/valueThe authors elaborately illustrate how long memory develops by analyzing not only stock market indices but also typical individual stocks in both the emerging China and the developed US, which diversifies the EMH with wider international stylized facts and findings when compared with previous literature. A couple of tests conducted to analyze structural break effects and spurious long memory demonstrate the reliability of the results. The authors’ findings have significant implications for investors and policymakers worldwide.

scholarly journals Random Walk Hypothesis for Stock Prices in Fiji

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-88
Author(s):  
Janesh Sami
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Random Walk Hypothesis ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Historical Movement

The main goal of this paper is to investigate the random walk hypothesis in Fiji using monthly data from January 2000 to October 2017. Applying augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF 1979, 1981) and Phillips-Perron (1988), Zivot-Andrews (1992), and Narayan and Popp (2010) unit root tests, this study finds that stock prices is best characterized as non-stationary. The estimated multiple structural break dates in the stock prices corresponds with devaluation of Fijian dollar by 20 percent in 2009 and General Elections in September 2014, which Fiji First Party won by majority votes. The empirical results indicate that stock prices are best characterized as a unit root (random walk) process, indicating that the weak-form efficient market hypothesis holds in Fiji’s stock market. Hence, it will be difficult to predict future returns based on historical movement of stock prices in Fiji’s stock market.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in China’s Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Jiaxuan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Security Market ◽  
Stock Trading ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Basic Framework

The efficient market hypothesis is one of the most important theories in finance. According to this hypothesis, in a stock market with sound laws, good functions, high transparencies, and extensive competitions, all valuable information is timely, accurately, and fully reflected in the trend of stock prices including the current and future values of enterprises. Unless there are market manipulations, it would be impossible for investors to gain more above the average profits in the market by analyzing former prices. Since the efficient market hypothesis has been introduced, it has become an interest in the empirical research of the security market. It is one of the most controversial investment theories and there are many evidences supporting and also opposing this hypothesis. Nevertheless, this hypothesis still holds an important status in the basic framework of mainstream theories in modern financial markets. By analyzing simulated investment transactions in regard to stock trading of three different enterprises, this paper verified that the efficient market hypothesis is partially valid.

scholarly journals Growth versus value investing: a case of Nigerian Stock Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-45
Author(s):  
Mukail Aremu Akinde ◽  
Eriki Peter ◽  
Ochei Ailemen Ikpefan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Reverse Causality ◽  
Value Investing ◽  
Value Stocks ◽  
Pooled Data ◽  
Emerging Stock Markets ◽  
Growth Stocks

At a time, the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE) is generally undergoing bearish trends; the paper investigated the performance of eighty-eight (88) sampled stocks, which were screened with the modern Price Earnings Growth (PEG) ratio into the Growth and the Value Portfolios. This is to ascertain whether the Value Portfolio outperformed the Growth Portfolio in terms of returns. From the researches in the developed and emerging stock markets, the momentum supports that the Value Portfolio outscored the Growth Portfolio in terms of returns. The paper explored pooled data from the Factbooks of the Nigerian Stock Market and the Annual Reports across different industries from 1990 to 2016. Descriptive methods and Arellano and Generalized Methods of Moment (GMM) xtabond2 were adopted to address the outliers, reverse causality and other related consequences of panel data. Similar to the findings from the developed and emerging stock markets, the study recognized that the Value Portfolio over-performed the Growth Portfolio in terms of returns in the NSE. Therefore, it is recommended that rational investors should show more preferences to invest in low-priced Value Stocks to earn higher returns than the high-priced Growth Stocks, which generated lower returns in the NSE.

scholarly journals Volatility at Karachi Stock Exchange

1995 ◽  
Vol 34 (4II) ◽  
pp. 651-657 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aslam Farid ◽  
Javed Ashraf
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Portfolio Insurance ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Made In

Frequent “crashes” of the stock market reported during the year 1994 suggest that the Karachi bourse is rapidly converting into a volatile market. This cannot be viewed as a positive sign for this developing market of South Asia. Though heavy fluctuations in stock prices are not an unusual phenomena and it has been observed at almost all big and small exchanges of the world. Focusing on the reasons for such fluctuations is instructive and likely to have important policy implications. Proponents of the efficient market hypothesis argue that changes in stock prices are mainly dependent on the arrival of information regarding the expected returns from the stock. However, Fama (1965), French (1980), and French and Rolls (1986) observed that volatility is to some extent caused by trading itself. Portfolio insurance schemes also have the potential to increase volatility. Brady Commission’s Report provides useful insights into the effect of portfolio insurance schemes. It is interesting to note that many analysts consider the so-called “crashes” of Karachi stock market as a deliberate move to bring down prices. An attempt is made in this study to examine the effect of trading on the volatility of stock prices at Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE). Findings of the study will help understand the mechanism of the rise and fall of stock prices at the Karachi bourse.

scholarly journals The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Price Multiples, And The German Stock Market

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Darrol J. Stanley ◽  
Michael D. Kinsman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Sharpe Ratio ◽  
High Price ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Investment Style ◽  
German Stock ◽  
The Impact ◽  
German Stock Market

One of the great exercises of financial research is to examine the efficiency of the stock markets. There are many reasons for this endeavor. One is due to the importance efficiency has on the allocation of capital and the impact on economic activity. Others center on the desire to find an exploitable anomaly for active investment management. This paper sought to do both. The paper explores the German stock market over a five year period ending December 31, 2007. The objective was to examine the value of price multiples in developing portfolios that would not only question the efficient market hypothesis for the market but provide an investment tool to achieve above market risk adjusted returns for an active investment style. The paper explored this by creating portfolios of (1) top ranked (low) price multiples and (2) bottom ranked (high) price multiples. Three multiples were chosen. These were (1) Price to Book (PBK); (2) Price to Current Earnings (PEC), and (3) Price to Normalized Earnings (PER). The hypotheses were that low price multiples would outperform, on a risk adjusted basis, high price multiples, and hedged (long/short) would likewise outperform the market on a risk adjusted basis. Support for either of these hypotheses questions the efficiency of the markets and could provide a pragmatic investment strategy. The results of the study suggest not only that the efficiency of the German stock market can be questioned but that a workable investment strategy involving price multiples could be implemented. The results noted that low price multiples outperformed high price multiples in all cases but not necessarily on a risk adjusted basis. Hedged portfolios likewise outperformed the universe and population. Hedged PBK had an Adjusted Sharpe Ratio of 0.50; the Hedged PEC had an Adjusted Sharpe Ratio of 0.30; and the Hedged PER had an Adjusted Sharpe Ratio of 0.23. These should be compared against an Adjusted Sharpe Ratio for the market of 0. Finally, an equally-weighted Hedged position of PBK, PEC, and PER had an Adjusted Sharpe Ratio of 0.44.

The stock market over the business cycle

2021 ◽  
pp. 126-141
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Discount Rates ◽  
The Business Cycle

This chapter describes how the stock market relates to the business cycle. Stocks do badly during recessions and excellently during expansions. Earnings of firms drop during recessions. Stock prices drop as well, whereas dividends do not. This means that the stock-price dividend multiple contracts during recessions. If stock prices drop by more than dividends, it must be because investors have increased their expectations of future discount rates and/or lowered their expectations to future dividend/earnings growth. The chapter discusses the academic research on this issue. The chapter also shows that bonds do better than stocks during recessions. This has not least to do with the fact that central banks lower the monetary policy rate during recessions.Lower interest rates lead to higher bond prices, causing bonds to perform well during recessions.

scholarly journals A Test of Return Predictability in the Vietnamese Stock Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 390
Author(s):  
Thanh Trung Le ◽  
Anh Tram Luong
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
First Time

For the first time, the market efficiency is examined in the different context of the stock market. By employing tests of weak-form efficiency, this study finds out that the overall, Vietnamese stock market does not follow a random walk regardless of the degree of stock market volatility. Therefore, technical analysis could be used by investors and financial managers to forecast price and gain profits on the market. Another finding is that although the Vietnamese market is not weak-form efficient, there is an improvement in recent years. The paper suggests that if investors and financial managers can employ past returns to predict stock prices and make decisions on the Vietnamese market, they should change their strategies in the future. This finding also contributes to studies on the Efficient Market Hypothesis in emerging countries and its performance in different economic contexts.

scholarly journals Risk Diversification Between Stock Markets In Germany And Bosnia And Herzegovina

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azra Zaimović ◽  
Almira Arnaut Berilo
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
International Diversification ◽  
Information Costs ◽  
Risk Diversification

Abstract The integration of global equity markets has been a well-studied topic in the last few decades, particularly after stock market crashes. Most studies have focused on developed markets such as the US, Western Europe and Japan. The findings were that the degree of international co-movements among stock prices has substantially increased in the post-crash regime. In this paper we research the co-movements of German and Bosnian stock markets during and after the recent economic and financial crisis. International market integration means that assets of equal risk provide the same expected returns across integrated markets. This means fewer opportunities for risk diversification if the markets are integrated. It is also believed that stock market indices of integrated markets move together over the long run with the possibility of short-run divergence. There is considerable academic research on the benefits of international diversification. Investors who buy stocks in domestic as well in foreign markets seek to reduce risk through international diversification. The risk reduction takes place if the various markets are not perfectly correlated. The increasing correlation among markets during and after the crises has restricted the scope for international diversification. International stock market linkages are the subject of extensive research due to rapid capital flows between countries because of financial deregulation, lower transaction and information costs, and the potential benefits from international diversification. Most stock markets in the world tend to move together, in the same direction, implying positive correlation. In and after crises they tend to move together even more strongly. Thus, this paper aims to research if there are any diversification opportunities by spreading out investments across developed and underdeveloped capital markets. This research attempts to examine the scope of international diversification between German and Bosnian equity markets during the 6-year period from 2006 to 2011. We test the hypothesis of whether there are any risk diversification possibilities by spreading out the investments between German and Bosnian equity markets. In order to determine the mean-variance efficiency of portfolios we use the method of convex (quadratic and linear) programming. The hypothesis is tested with the Markowitz portfolio optimization method using our own software. The results of this research might enhance the efficiency of portfolio management for both types of capital market under analysis, and prove especially useful for institutional investors such as investment funds.

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