scholarly journals Amsterdam to Dublin Eventually Delayed? LSTM and Transfer Learning for Predicting Delays of Low Cost Airlines

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 9541-9546
Author(s):  
Nicholas McCarthy ◽  
Mohammad Karzand ◽  
Freddy Lecue
Keyword(s):  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Flight Delays ◽  
Commercial Aviation ◽  
Feature Spaces ◽  
Flight Delay ◽  
Delay Prediction ◽  
Heterogeneous Feature

Flight delays impact airlines, airports and passengers. Delay prediction is crucial during the decision-making process for all players in commercial aviation, and in particular for airlines to meet their on-time performance objectives. Although many machine learning approaches have been experimented with, they fail in (i) predicting delays in minutes with low errors (less than 15 minutes), (ii) being applied to small carriers i.e., low cost companies characterized by a small amount of data. This work presents a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) approach to predicting flight delay, modeled as a sequence of flights across multiple airports for a particular aircraft throughout the day. We then suggest a transfer learning approach between heterogeneous feature spaces to train a prediction model for a given smaller airline using the data from another larger airline. Our approach is demonstrated to be robust and accurate for low cost airlines in Europe.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Flight Delay Predictions Using Machine Learning and Applications to the Flight-to-Gate Assignment Problem

Aerospace ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 152
Author(s):  
Micha Zoutendijk ◽  
Mihaela Mitici
Keyword(s):  
Assignment Problem ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Aviation Industry ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Flight Delays ◽  
Mixture Density ◽  
Assignment Model ◽  
Gate Assignment ◽  
Flight Delay ◽  
Delay Prediction

The problem of flight delay prediction is approached most often by predicting a delay class or value. However, the aviation industry can benefit greatly from probabilistic delay predictions on an individual flight basis, as these give insight into the uncertainty of the delay predictions. Therefore, in this study, two probabilistic forecasting algorithms, Mixture Density Networks and Random Forest regression, are applied to predict flight delays at a European airport. The algorithms estimate well the distribution of arrival and departure flight delays with a Mean Absolute Error of less than 15 min. To illustrate the utility of the estimated delay distributions, we integrate these probabilistic predictions into a probabilistic flight-to-gate assignment problem. The objective of this problem is to increase the robustness of flight-to-gate assignments. Considering probabilistic delay predictions, our proposed flight-to-gate assignment model reduces the number of conflicted aircraft by up to 74% when compared to a deterministic flight-to-gate assignment model. In general, the results illustrate the utility of considering probabilistic forecasting for robust airport operations’ optimization.

scholarly journals Flight Delay Prediction Using Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
pp. 473-476
Author(s):  
Prajwal Dhone ◽  
Uday Kirange ◽  
Rushabh Satarkar ◽  
Prof. Shashant Jaykar
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Environmental Harm ◽  
Flight Delays ◽  
Adverse Weather Conditions ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
Flight Delay ◽  
Delay Prediction

In this fast growing world as airplanes continue flying, flight delays are the part of the experience. According to the Bureau Of Statistics(BOS), about 20% of all flights are delayed by 15 minutes or more. Flight delays causes a negative impact, mainly economical for airport authorities, commuters and airline industries as well. Furthermore, in the domain of sustainability, it can even cause environmental harm by the rise in fuel consumption and gas emissions and also some of the important factors including adverse weather conditions, preparing the aircraft, fixing of mechanical issue, getting security clearance, etc. Hence, these are the factors which indicates the necessity it has become to predict the delays of airline problems. To carry out the predictive analysis, which includes a range of statistical techniques from machine learning, this studies historical and current data to make predictions about the future delays, taking help of Regression Analysis using regularization technique used in Python.

scholarly journals Deep LSTM-Based Transfer Learning Approach for Coherent Forecasts in Hierarchical Time Series

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (13) ◽  
pp. 4379
Author(s):  
Alaa Sagheer ◽  
Hala Hamdoun ◽  
Hassan Youness
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Hierarchical Architecture ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Empirical Performance ◽  
Coherent Forecasts ◽  
Hierarchical Architectures

Hierarchical time series is a set of data sequences organized by aggregation constraints to represent many real-world applications in research and the industry. Forecasting of hierarchical time series is a challenging and time-consuming problem owing to ensuring the forecasting consistency among the hierarchy levels based on their dimensional features. The excellent empirical performance of our Deep Long Short-Term Memory (DLSTM) approach on various forecasting tasks motivated us to extend it to solve the forecasting problem through hierarchical architectures. Toward this target, we develop the DLSTM model in auto-encoder (AE) fashion and take full advantage of the hierarchical architecture for better time series forecasting. DLSTM-AE works as an alternative approach to traditional and machine learning approaches that have been used to manipulate hierarchical forecasting. However, training a DLSTM in hierarchical architectures requires updating the weight vectors for each LSTM cell, which is time-consuming and requires a large amount of data through several dimensions. Transfer learning can mitigate this problem by training first the time series at the bottom level of the hierarchy using the proposed DLSTM-AE approach. Then, we transfer the learned features to perform synchronous training for the time series of the upper levels of the hierarchy. To demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach, we compare its performance with existing approaches using two case studies related to the energy and tourism domains. An evaluation of all approaches was based on two criteria, namely, the forecasting accuracy and the ability to produce coherent forecasts through through the hierarchy. In both case studies, the proposed approach attained the highest accuracy results among all counterparts and produced more coherent forecasts.

scholarly journals Supervised Learning Approaches to Flight Delay Prediction

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Cemal ATLIOĞLU ◽  
Mustafa BOLAT ◽  
Murat ŞAHİN ◽  
Volkan TUNALI ◽  
Deniz KILINÇ
Keyword(s):  
Supervised Learning ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Flight Delay ◽  
Delay Prediction

scholarly journals A Hybrid LSTM-CPS Approach for Long-Term Prediction of Train Delays in Multivariate Time Series

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 765-776
Author(s):  
Jianqing Wu ◽  
Bo Du ◽  
Qiang Wu ◽  
Jun Shen ◽  
Luping Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
Dwell Time ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Term Prediction ◽  
Long Term Prediction ◽  
Delay Prediction

In many big cities, train delays are among the most complained-about events by the public. Although various models have been proposed for train delay prediction, prior studies on both primary and secondary train delay prediction are limited in number. Recent advances in deep learning approaches and increasing availability of various data sources has created new opportunities for more efficient and accurate train delay prediction. In this study, we propose a hybrid deep learning solution by integrating long short-term memory (LSTM) and Critical Point Search (CPS). LSTM deals with long-term prediction tasks of trains’ running time and dwell time, while CPS uses predicted values with a nominal timetable to identify primary and secondary delays based on the delay causes, run-time delay, and dwell time delay. To validate the model and analyse its performance, we compare the standard LSTM with the proposed hybrid model. The results demonstrate that new variants outperform the standard LSTM, based on predicting time steps of dwell time feature. The experiment results also showed many irregularities of historical trends, which draws attention for further research.

Delay Prediction of Aircrafts Based on Health Monitoring Data

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
B. A. Dattaram ◽  
N. Madhusudanan
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Health Monitoring ◽  
Monitoring Data ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Flight Delay ◽  
Delay Prediction ◽  
The Relationship

Flight delay is a major issue faced by airline companies. Delay in the aircraft take off can lead to penalty and extra payment to airport authorities leading to revenue loss. The causes for delays can be weather, traffic queues or component issues. In this paper, we focus on the problem of delays due to component issues in the aircraft. In particular, this paper explores the analysis of aircraft delays based on health monitoring data from the aircraft. This paper analyzes and establishes the relationship between health monitoring data and the delay of the aircrafts using exploratory analytics, stochastic approaches and machine learning techniques.

scholarly journals Leveraging Label Information in a Knowledge-Driven Approach for Rolling-Element Bearings Remaining Useful Life Prediction

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2163
Author(s):  
Tarek Berghout ◽  
Mohamed Benbouzid ◽  
Leïla-Hayet Mouss
Keyword(s):  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Accelerated Life Tests ◽  
Learning Path ◽  
Accelerated Life ◽  
Unseen Data ◽  
Label Information ◽  
Life Tests ◽  
Ill Posed

Since bearing deterioration patterns are difficult to collect from real, long lifetime scenarios, data-driven research has been directed towards recovering them by imposing accelerated life tests. Consequently, insufficiently recovered features due to rapid damage propagation seem more likely to lead to poorly generalized learning machines. Knowledge-driven learning comes as a solution by providing prior assumptions from transfer learning. Likewise, the absence of true labels was able to create inconsistency related problems between samples, and teacher-given label behaviors led to more ill-posed predictors. Therefore, in an attempt to overcome the incomplete, unlabeled data drawbacks, a new autoencoder has been designed as an additional source that could correlate inputs and labels by exploiting label information in a completely unsupervised learning scheme. Additionally, its stacked denoising version seems to more robustly be able to recover them for new unseen data. Due to the non-stationary and sequentially driven nature of samples, recovered representations have been fed into a transfer learning, convolutional, long–short-term memory neural network for further meaningful learning representations. The assessment procedures were benchmarked against recent methods under different training datasets. The obtained results led to more efficiency confirming the strength of the new learning path.

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