scholarly journals Prospects for using data from pending orders for forecasting oil prices in Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-49
Author(s):  
D. V. Paleev ◽  
M. V. Chernyaev ◽  
Yu. V. Solovyova
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Market Conditions ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Cost Of Energy ◽  
Pricing Factors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Oil Pricing ◽  
The Cost

Modern oil-pricing is more dependent on the stock market conditions than on the cost price or demand and supply laws. The price is infl uenced by a great number of objective and subjective factors. The ability to analyze these factors is the basis of the modern stock market trade. Thus, stock quotes are the key to analyzing oil market in the short-term perspective. The authors study current trends informing pricing factors of the oil market and their influence. They point out the peculiarities of using orders as pricing tools, adduce Russian experience on pending orders at the oil market, analyze the specificity and prospects of using pending orders for analyzing oil market. So, changes of the conditions can be predicted much faster than by using traditional statistic methods of analyzing transactions. The authors conclude that using such a tool as a pending order will lead to better understanding of the market conditions for the main Russian oil brand (Urals). It will make the market more predictable and controllable by the government which will mitigate the consequences of drastic changes in oil prices and the changes of the cost of energy and fuel arising from that making the economy more resistant to crises. More accurate forecasts will increase the Russian traders’ income from the transactions. The authors use international researches devoted to stock market trade and data analysis, and information from software developers who design programs for analyzing stock market data.

scholarly journals Oil Market Shocks and Financial Instability in Asian Countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fakhri Hasanov
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Financial Instability ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Fair Share ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Market Shocks ◽  
The Relationship

There is no commodity whose interlinkages with the macroeconomy have been studied as extensively as oil, starting with Hamilton’s (1983) seminal study. Thousands of subsequent studies have examined the relationship between oil prices and various economic variables, including the stock market. This strand of the literature began with the pioneering work of Kling (1985). Since then, other financial markets, such as banking, have also received a fair share of analysis.

Oil and risk premia in equity markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 697-723
Author(s):  
Satish Kumar ◽  
Riza Demirer ◽  
Aviral Kumar Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Market Size ◽  
Predictive Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Factor Returns

Purpose This study aims to explore the oil–stock market nexus from a novel angle by examining the predictive role of oil prices over the excess returns associated with the market, size, book-to-market and momentum factors via bivariate cross-quantilograms. Design/methodology/approach This study makes use of the bivariate cross-quantilogram methodology recently developed by Han et al. (2016) to analyze the predictability patterns across the oil and stock markets by focusing on various quantiles that formally distinguish between normal, bull and bear as well as extreme market states. Findings The study analysis of systematic risk premia across the four regions shows that crude oil returns indeed capture predictive information regarding excess factor returns in stock markets, particularly those associated with market, size and momentum factors. However, the predictive power of oil return over excess factor returns is asymmetric and primarily concentrated on extreme quantiles, suggesting that large fluctuations in oil prices capture markedly different predictive information over stock market risk premia during up and down states of the oil market. Practical implications The findings have significant implications for the profitability of factor- or style-based active portfolio strategies and suggest that the predictive information contained in oil market fluctuations could be used to enhance returns via conditional strategies based on these predictability patterns. Originality/value This study contributes to the vast literature on the oil–stock market nexus from a novel perspective by exploring the effect of oil price fluctuations on the risk premia associated with the systematic risk factors including market, size, value and momentum.

scholarly journals Economic Freedom And Investment Efficiency In The MENA Region

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 841
Author(s):  
Asma’a Al-Amarneh
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Investment Efficiency ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Volatility Risk ◽  
Market Return ◽  
The Government ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Cost

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic freedom level on investment efficiency; predicted by market return and volatility; using data covering the period from 1996 tell 2015 for the MENA region countries. Simple regression models and multivariate regression models were applied to test our hypothesis. The results show that the economic freedom level has a little impact on market return, and the capital market performance get better as the government regulations get highly efficient and the financial system is accessible and effi­ciently functioning. In the same time, the evidence points out that economic freedom decrease market returns’ volatility (risk), indicating that; if government’s regulation in banking and financial systems doesn’t assure transparency and honesty, then financial markets efficiency will be hindered, the cost of financing will increase and the completion will be limited. Keeping in mind that the two fundamental aspects of investment are risk and return; it is obvious that economic freedom enhances the risk-return investment efficiency in the MENA region.

Politics trump business in Venezuela oil outlook

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Influence ◽  
Default Risks ◽  
The Government ◽  
Military Support ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

Significance The impact of low oil prices, which have prompted a fall of more than 60% in the government's income, has been exacerbated by falling production. This raises questions about the government's ability to maintain its regional influence via organisations such as PetroCaribe and manage the risk of a default by PDVSA. Impacts Camimpeg may bolster military support for the government, but not oil output. Although falling oil prices have lowered the cost of PetroCaribe, it could yet prove unsustainable in current conditions. Chinese lending appears set to shrink amid concerns over oil output and default risks.

Study of Energy Efficiency Upgradation and Investment Risk

2021 ◽  
pp. 18-28
Author(s):  
Tandin Wangchuk ◽  
Tashi Tobgay ◽  
Pema Nidup ◽  
Yeshi Seldon ◽  
Roshan Chhetri
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Distribution System ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Load Growth ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Cost Of Energy ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Domestic Electricity

It was about 60 years ago when electricity was first introduced in Bhutan and today, more than 99.97 percent of households are electrified. Since electricity is superior to other form of energy, everybody prefers it. The electricity demand is increasing rapidly with development in all fronts. Distribution system are currently experiencing rapid changes in domestic load growth. With increasing domestic electricity consumption, Royal Government of Bhutan (RGoB) recognizes the importance of energy management and reduction at the consumer end to further minimize carbon emission and to increase the exports. While achieving 100 percent electrification of Bhutan, the increased consumer reduces the export, reducing the total revenue generated. The study identifies possible barriers of energy efficiency in domestic and industrial sectors. The lack of policy framework is one of the main reasons for the decline in interest in energy efficiency. The government subsidy is another cause of the same. This in turn led to negligence of Energy Efficiency (EE) programs by the consumers. On the contrary, consumers feel that the cost of energy is high, despite the fact that urban dwellers' expenditure capacity and productivity upgradation potential are also high. Based on a case study of residential and commercial buildings in the Phuntsholing region, as well as industrial sectors in Pasakha, this paper examines the metrics needed to make energy efficiency upgrade decisions. The study finds respondents were more likely to choose equipment that suited their budget rather than those that are energy efficient. Another big impediment to investment in energy efficiency in the region is a lack of energy efficiency awareness and information.

THE IMPACT OF ENERGY WARS AND GEOPOLITICS ON EXCHANGE RATES AND THE PRICE OF OIL: THE ERA OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2020 ◽  
pp. 64-71
Author(s):  
M.N. Dudin ◽  
◽  
N.V. Lyasnikov ◽  
A.N. Bryntsev ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
The World ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

Oil will remain the single largest energy source in the world for the foreseeable future, and a balance must be struck between global supply and demand. A serious malfunction of only one large oil producer can lead to a significant change in oil prices and the recession of the entire global economy. The aim of the article is to study the theoretical and empirical aspects of the mutual causality of oil prices and exchange rates, as well as to determine their influence on the development of the world economy. Methodology of the article. To complete this article, a comparative, economic and statistical analysis was used. Results. The article proves that the oil market is more inherent in a tendency towards regionalization rather than globalization. Factors affecting this process include macroeconomic conditions, the balance of supply and demand, the transformation of the regulatory component, changes in the cost structure and the significant influence of geopolitical components. The article justifies the fact that there is a certain strong direct connection between oil prices and exchange rates, but it is influenced by various geopolitical factors (for example, sanctions). Only 4% of the cost of oil is included in the price of gasoline, so when the price of oil falls, the price of gasoline does not decrease. Conclusions. A characteristic feature of the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates is the presence of bilateral mutual causality. Fluctuations in the dynamics of the oil industry are changing the roles of traditional and new suppliers. The oil market environment, which is a key commodity of our time, has a significant impact on world currencies.

Designing the Maximum Permissible Production Cost of Oil and Gas Project Using Control Chart Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Abdul Azizurrofi ◽  
Yosef Setya Buana
Keyword(s):  
Control Chart ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Petroleum Exploration ◽  
Maximum Cost ◽  
Cost Of Production ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

Abstract During the period of 2005 to 2020, the oil prices reached the highest level in 2008 (99.67 US$/bbl) and the lowest level in 2020 (39.16 US$/bbl). The fluctuation in oil prices will affect the expenditures for both investment and production in oil and gas projects. Based on this condition, the standardization of the costs of investment and production is needed to help the government and contractor in estimating the costs needed in an oil and gas project. As of December 2018, 471 projects (POD) have been approved by the government of Indonesia. All of them are projects that produce oil (oil projects) and gas (gas projects). In these projects, details of operating (Production) costs are included in the economic evaluation. For the purpose of this paper, Indonesia was divided into 2 areas (Onshore and Offshore). Each of the areas had 2 different types of projects (oil project and gas project). Then, to collect the data related to the cost of production and reserves, the maximum cost of production per BOE was calculated and produced using the Control Chart Analysis method. Lastly, the result was distributed to those aforementioned areas. Based on the evaluation and analysis of the cost of production from 273 oil and gas projects in Indonesia, oil and gas projects in Indonesia are economically acceptable as the maximum cost of production (US$ per BOE) is still far below the oil price (~65 US$/BBL). The following is the estimated Maximum Cost of Production generated in Indonesia: Onshore – Oil Projects (28.00 US$/BOE), Onshore - Gas Projects (12.27 US$/BOE), Offshore - Oil Projects (21.20 US$/BOE), Offshore - Gas Projects (15.95 US$/BOE). Finally, this paper will show how to produce the maximum cost of productions per BOE using control chart analysis. This paper is expected to provide references (method) for the government of Indonesia in giving approval to the cost of production proposed by contractors. In addition, this paper may provide contractors with a quick look at oil and gas industry in Indonesia, especially those who plan to invest in Indonesia. It may also help them create their petroleum exploration and exploitation strategy in Indonesia if they take this information into consideration, which will benefit both the government and contractors.

scholarly journals Multi-Dimensional Effect of Oil Pricing On Pakistan Economy: A Case of Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-220
Author(s):  
Qamar Ul Arafeen ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Middle East Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil And Gas Resources ◽  
International Investors ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Pricing

Pakistan economy is growing steadily. This growth demands higher energy consumption and consequently putting high pressure on countries economy. Pakistan mainly depends upon oil and gas resources to fulfill energy requirements. Indigenous resources of Oil are not enough to quench energy thirst of the growing economy. As a result Pakistan has to import large quantity of oil and oil based products from Middle East countries. Gas reserves in the country are enough for current gas requirements. So natural gas is playing a key role in power sector. Currently in oil upstream and downstream sector there are some local and international companies involved and government of Pakistan is establishing such policies that it can attract more international investors in this sector but the rapid pace of change, high degree of uncertainty and unstable political situation of the country present significant challenges and risk to foreign investment. The paper is a review of possible consequences and challenges presented by high oil prices in Pakistan. Pakistan is heavily dependent on imported fuels and this dependence is expected to increase even further in future given the depleting gas resources. The rising oil prices in the international market has had affected negatively balance of payment position as well as on the budgetary position of the country and contributed in creating inflationary pressures in the economy. For long run development oil will remain an important source of energy. The government should chalk out strategies for ensuring efficiency in use; and development, adequacy and reliability of supply and the pricing of petroleum products in such a way that will not create extra burden on the consumers. Unless appropriate steps are taken this trend of rising oil prices will further aggravate the negative impacts on the economy.

scholarly journals The JKN Participants’ Experience on the BPJS Service in Malang Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 134
Author(s):  
Sunardi Sunardi ◽  
Faqih Ruhyanuddin
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Health Services ◽  
Social Health Insurance ◽  
Basic Program ◽  
Equal Treatment ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
The Government ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Depth Interviews

The cost of health services at the felt by middle-down economic community still expensive makes them very difficult to achieve the welfare of health. The Government issued a policy Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (JKN) held through the mechanism of social health insurance that is compulsory (mandatory). Research methods used in this research is descriptive-qualitative design in depth-interviews. This research was conducted in Primary Clinic of Malang Dinoyo  and Griya Melati Diagnostic Malang with 10 participants who have become participants Purposive Sampling techniques through JKN. Data analysis techniques using data analysis techniques Colaizzi. The results of the interviews conducted on participants is diidentifikasinya 6 themes, namely 1) problems in the service of JKN; 2) Excess JKN within health services; 3) Service to use JKN got equal treatment; 4) Program JKN only bear the costs of the treatment in part only; 5) expectations to JKN; 6) Transition Askes became member of the BPJS. The experience of the participants against BPJS majority is very helpful in the Ministry of health. There are some participants who are not satisfied will the performance of the Basic program and hope the BPJS would be even better in providing health services. Based on these studies are recommended for the Government to be proactive in supervising and evaluating the course of program BPJS.

What Does Rent Give to Federal Budget (on the Russia's Budget Dependence upon "Oil Dollars")

2004 ◽  
pp. 51-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Sharipova ◽  
I. Tcherkashin
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Resource Rent ◽  
Tax Legislation ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Government

Federal tax revenues from the main sectors of the Russian economy after the 1998 crisis are examined in the article. Authors present the structure of revenues from these sectors by main taxes for 1999-2003 and prospects for 2004. Emphasis is given to an increasing dependence of budget on revenues from oil and gas industries. The share of proceeds from these sectors has reached 1/3 of total federal revenues. To explain this fact world oil prices dynamics and changes in tax legislation in Russia are considered. Empirical results show strong dependence of budget revenues on oil prices. The analysis of changes in tax legislation in oil and gas industry shows that the government has managed to redistribute resource rent in favor of the state.

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