Development of Micro-Spatial Electricity Load Forecasting Methodology Using Multivariate Analysis for Dynamic Area in Tangerang, Indonesia

Dynamic population and land use significantly affect future energy demand. This paper proposes a suitable method to forecast load growth in a dynamic area in Tangerang, Indonesia. This research developed micro-spatial load forecasting, which can show load centres in microgrids, estimate the capacity and locate the distribution station precisely. Homogenous grouping implemented the method into clusters consisted of microgrids. It involves multivariate variables containing 12 electric and non-electric variables. Multivariate analysis is conducted by carrying out Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Factor Analysis. The forecasting results can predict load growth, time, and location, which can later be implemented as the basis of a master electricity distribution plan because it provides an accurate long-term forecast.

Multiple (TEES)-Criteria-Based Sustainable Planning Approach for Mesh-Configured Distribution Mechanisms across Multiple Load Growth Horizons

Modern distribution mechanisms within the smart grid paradigm are considered both reliable in nature and interconnected in topology. In this paper, a multiple-criteria-based sustainable planning (MCSP) approach is presented that serves as a future planning tool for interconnected distribution mechanisms and aims to find a feasible solution among conflicting criteria of various genres. The proposed methodology is based on three stages. In the stage 1, a weighted voltage stability index (VSI_W) and loss minimization condition (LMC) based approach aims at optimal asset optimization (sitting and sizing). In this stage, an evaluation of alternatives (solutions) is carried out across four dimensions (technical, economic, environmental, and social) of performance metrics. The assets considered in the evaluations include distributed generation (DG), renewable DGs, i.e., photovoltaic (PV), wind, and distributed static compensator (D-STATCOM) units. In the stage 2, various multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) methodologies are applied to ascertain the best trade-off among the available solutions in terms of techno-cost (economic) (TCPE), environment-o-social (ESPE), and techno-economic-environmental-socio (TEES) performance evaluations (OPE). In the stage 3, the alternatives are evaluated across multiple load growth horizons of 5 years each. The proposed MCSP approach is evaluated across a mesh-configured 33-bus active distribution network (ADN) and an actual NUST (which is a university in Islamabad, Pakistan) microgrid (MG), with various variants of load growth. The numerical findings of the proposed MCSP approach are compared with reported works the literature supports its validity and can serve as an important planning tool for interconnected distribution mechanisms for researchers and planning engineers.

Study of Energy Efficiency Upgradation and Investment Risk

It was about 60 years ago when electricity was first introduced in Bhutan and today, more than 99.97 percent of households are electrified. Since electricity is superior to other form of energy, everybody prefers it. The electricity demand is increasing rapidly with development in all fronts. Distribution system are currently experiencing rapid changes in domestic load growth. With increasing domestic electricity consumption, Royal Government of Bhutan (RGoB) recognizes the importance of energy management and reduction at the consumer end to further minimize carbon emission and to increase the exports. While achieving 100 percent electrification of Bhutan, the increased consumer reduces the export, reducing the total revenue generated. The study identifies possible barriers of energy efficiency in domestic and industrial sectors. The lack of policy framework is one of the main reasons for the decline in interest in energy efficiency. The government subsidy is another cause of the same. This in turn led to negligence of Energy Efficiency (EE) programs by the consumers. On the contrary, consumers feel that the cost of energy is high, despite the fact that urban dwellers' expenditure capacity and productivity upgradation potential are also high. Based on a case study of residential and commercial buildings in the Phuntsholing region, as well as industrial sectors in Pasakha, this paper examines the metrics needed to make energy efficiency upgrade decisions. The study finds respondents were more likely to choose equipment that suited their budget rather than those that are energy efficient. Another big impediment to investment in energy efficiency in the region is a lack of energy efficiency awareness and information.