Russia’s Governors Under Presidential Control, 2005-2012: A Survival Analysis of Gubernatorial Tenures

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
William M Reisinger ◽  
Bryon J Moraski
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Ethnic Composition ◽  
Political Control ◽  
Political Performance ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Its Regions ◽  
Federal Center ◽  
Legislative Election

What do we learn about politics between Russia’s federal center and its regions from examining governors’ tenures during the period of Kremlin control? We use survival analysis of data from all of Russia’s regions from 2005-2012 to estimate the factors influencing when a governor is replaced, including the region’s size and ethnic composition, the governor’s age, and aspects of the governor’s administrative and political performance. We find that the Kremlin targeted its replacements on governors who could not deliver pro-Kremlin votes in federal elections. Yet this tool of political control over the regional leaderships did not prevent the weak showing of the Kremlin’s party in the 2011 legislative election or the mediocre showing of Putin in the 2012 presidential election. The appointment era now looks more like a failed experiment than an inexorable tightening of authoritarian control over the country.

scholarly journals The Role of Nusantara Task Force in Preventing Political Vulnerability in Pati Police Jurisdiction

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 457-478
Author(s):  
Arindra Wigrha Pratama
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Role Theory ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Police Chief ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
General Elections ◽  
National Police ◽  
Force Concept

Political insecurity ahead of the 2019 presidential and vice presidential election candidates often arises in the Pati Police jurisdiction. The establishment of this task force aims to minimize the occurrence of various political vulnerabilities ahead of the presidential and vice presidential elections so as not to develop into social conflict. The purpose of this study is to analyze the problems of political vulnerability that existed during the 2019 Presidential Election in the Pati Police jurisdiction, describe and explain the role of the Nusantara Task Force in preventing the occurrence of problems of political vulnerability that existed during the 2019 Presidential Election in the Pati Police area, and analyze the factors factors influencing the implementation of the Task Force of the Archipelago in preventing the occurrence of problems of political insecurity that existed during the 2019 Presidential Election in the Pati Police jurisdiction. Theories used in this research are the Role Theory and Voter Behavior Theory. The concept used is the Nusantara Task Force Concept. The laws and regulations in this study are Law No. 2 of 2002 concerning the National Police and the Law. No. 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections, as well as National Police Chief Sprin No. .: Sprin / 40 / I / 2018 Date January 8, 2018 About the Establishment of the Task Force Nusantara.

scholarly journals The State of Human Rights and Political Freedoms in Belarus: Was the Crisis Inevitable?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Kolarzik ◽  
◽  
Aram Terzyan
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
The State ◽  
Political Control ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Authoritarian Rule ◽  
Political Freedoms

The rule of Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus has created one of the most resilient authoritarian regimes in post-communist Europe. Meanwhile, the turmoil triggered by the 2020 presidential election has put in the spotlight the mounting challenges facing Lukashenko’s authoritarian rule. This paper investigates the state of human rights and political freedoms in Belarus, focusing on the main rationale behind the turmoil surrounding the 2020 presidential election. It concludes that the political crisis following the elections is the unsurprising consequence of Lukashenko’s diminishing ability to maintain power or concentrate political control by preserving elite unity, controlling elections, and/or using force against opponents.

scholarly journals Conceal Carry and Race: A Test of Minority Threat Theory in Law Generation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher W. Mullins ◽  
Daniel R. Kavish
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Ethnic Composition ◽  
Public Discussion ◽  
Minority Threat ◽  
The Past ◽  
Threat Theory

Conceal carry weapon (CCW) laws have generated a great deal of public discussion in the past decades, but little social science attention. Scholarly worked on the topic has been focused on finding potential effects of such laws on crime and victimization; little has attempted to explain the trends behind the adoption of the laws. This paper attempts to fill that gap by testing a series of hypotheses grounded in minority threat approaches. Our paper examines whether or not changes in the racial and ethnic composition of a county predict the voting outcome of Missouri’s 1999 conceal-carry referendum. Findings fail to reject the null hypothesis and show the best predictor of the vote within a county was how that county voted in the 2000 Presidential election.

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