scholarly journals Aerial map demonstrates erosional patterns and changing topography at Isimila, Tanzania

2019 ◽  
Vol 115 (7/8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kersten Bergstrom ◽  
Austin B. Lawrence ◽  
Alex J. Pelissero ◽  
Lauren J. Hammond ◽  
Eliwasa Maro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Threshold Temperature ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
Local Newspapers ◽  
Arrival Dates ◽  
First Arrival ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Phenological Records ◽  
Phenological Shift

Phenological shifts represent one of the most robust bioindicators of climate change. While considerable multidecadal records of plant and animal phenology exist for the northern hemisphere, few noteworthy records are available for the southern hemisphere. We present one of the first phenological records of fish migration for the southern hemisphere, and one of the only phenological records for the southwest Indian Ocean. The so-called ‘sardine run’ – an annual winter migration of sardines, northeast of their summer spawning grounds on the Agulhas Bank off the coast of Durban, South Africa – has been well documented in local newspapers given the importance placed on fishing and fishing-tourism in the region. An analysis of the first arrival dates of sardines reveals a 1.3 day per decade delay over the period 1946–2012. Although this phenological shift reveals a poor association with sea surface temperatures (SST), it coincides with a poleward shift in the position of the 21 °C mean annual SST isotherm – the threshold temperature for sardine populations. The timing of sardine arrivals near Durban corresponds closely with the number of mid-latitude cyclones passing over the Durban coastline during the months of April and May. The strength of the run is strongly associated with ENSO conditions. The complex suite of factors associated with this phenological shift poses challenges in accurately modelling the future trajectory for this migratory event.

scholarly journals Progressive delays in the timing of sardine migration in the southwest Indian Ocean

2019 ◽  
Vol 115 (7/8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer M. Fitchett ◽  
Stefan W. Grab ◽  
Heinrich Portwig
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Threshold Temperature ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
Local Newspapers ◽  
Arrival Dates ◽  
First Arrival ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Phenological Records ◽  
Phenological Shift

Phenological shifts represent one of the most robust bioindicators of climate change. While considerable multidecadal records of plant and animal phenology exist for the northern hemisphere, few noteworthy records are available for the southern hemisphere. We present one of the first phenological records of fish migration for the southern hemisphere, and one of the only phenological records for the southwest Indian Ocean. The so-called ‘sardine run’ – an annual winter migration of sardines, northeast of their summer spawning grounds on the Agulhas Bank off the coast of Durban, South Africa – has been well documented in local newspapers given the importance placed on fishing and fishing-tourism in the region. An analysis of the first arrival dates of sardines reveals a 1.3 day per decade delay over the period 1946–2012. Although this phenological shift reveals a poor association with sea surface temperatures (SST), it coincides with a poleward shift in the position of the 21 °C mean annual SST isotherm – the threshold temperature for sardine populations. The timing of sardine arrivals near Durban corresponds closely with the number of mid-latitude cyclones passing over the Durban coastline during the months of April and May. The strength of the run is strongly associated with ENSO conditions. The complex suite of factors associated with this phenological shift poses challenges in accurately modelling the future trajectory for this migratory event.

Influence of Climate Change on Avian Migrants' First Arrival Dates

The Condor ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 113 (4) ◽  
pp. 915-923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert L. DeLeon ◽  
Emma E. DeLeon ◽  
Gerald R. Rising
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Arrival Dates ◽  
First Arrival

Relationship between arrival date, hatching date and breeding success of the white stork (Ciconia ciconia) in Slovakia

Biologia ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 64 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Miroslav Fulin ◽  
Leszek Jerzak ◽  
Tim Sparks ◽  
Piotr Tryjanowski
Keyword(s):  
Breeding Success ◽  
White Stork ◽  
Hatching Date ◽  
Ciconia Ciconia ◽  
Arrival Dates ◽  
Spring Arrival ◽  
First Arrival ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Migrant Birds

AbstractChanges in the spring arrival dates of migrant birds have been reported from a range of locations and many authors have focused on long-term trends and their relationship to temperature and other climatic events. Perhaps more importantly, changed arrival dates may have consequences for the breeding dates of birds which strongly influence breeding success. In this paper we take the opportunity provided by a monitoring scheme of the white stork (Ciconia ciconia) to examine several features of the timing of arrival and breeding in relation to chick production in Slovakia during the period 1978–2002. First arrival dates ranged from 5th March to 30th April, and hatching dates varied between 26th April and 8th July. Generally, early arriving pairs started breeding earlier and a shorter interval between the arrival of the first partner and breeding, expressed here as hatching date, resulted in higher breeding success.

Simulation of Present-Day and Twenty-First-Century Energy Budgets of the Southern Oceans

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 440-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin E. Trenberth ◽  
John T. Fasullo
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Energy Budgets ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract The energy budget of the modern-day Southern Hemisphere is poorly simulated in both state-of-the-art reanalyses and coupled global climate models. The ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere has low surface reflectivity and therefore its albedo is particularly sensitive to cloud cover. In modern-day climates, mainly because of systematic deficiencies in cloud and albedo at mid- and high latitudes, too much solar radiation enters the ocean. Along with too little radiation absorbed at lower latitudes because of clouds that are too bright, unrealistically weak poleward transports of energy by both the ocean and atmosphere are generally simulated in the Southern Hemisphere. This implies too little baroclinic eddy development and deficient activity in storm tracks. However, projections into the future by coupled climate models indicate that the Southern Ocean features a robust and unique increase in albedo, related to clouds, in association with an intensification and poleward shift in storm tracks that is not observed at any other latitude. Such an increase in cloud may be untenable in nature, as it is likely precluded by the present-day ubiquitous cloud cover that models fail to capture. There is also a remarkably strong relationship between the projected changes in clouds and the simulated current-day cloud errors. The model equilibrium climate sensitivity is also significantly negatively correlated with the Southern Hemisphere energy errors, and only the more sensitive models are in the range of observations. As a result, questions loom large about how the Southern Hemisphere will actually change as global warming progresses, and a better simulation of the modern-day climate is an essential first step.

Spring migration timing of Sylvia warblers in Tatarstan (Russia) 1957–2008

2009 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 595-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oleg Askeyev ◽  
Tim Sparks ◽  
Igor Askeyev ◽  
Piotr Tryjanowski
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Specific Response ◽  
Garden Warbler ◽  
Breeding Sites ◽  
Migration Timing ◽  
Bird Populations ◽  
Arrival Dates ◽  
First Arrival ◽  
Species Specific ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe timing of when migrant birds return to breed is a key component of studies of the impact of climate change upon bird populations. However, such data are not distributed evenly across the World, and in the Northern Hemisphere are underrepresented in Asia and the east of Europe. Therefore, to help rectify this bias, we analysed first arrival dates (FAD) of four species of Sylvia warblers (Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla, Whitethroat S.communis, Lesser Whitethroat S.curruca and Garden Warbler S.borin) collected in the Tatarstan Republic of Russia between 1957 and 2008. Over the whole period the species returned to their breeding sites between three and six days earlier; these trends were significant except for Whitethroat. Advances in arrival were especially apparent in the two earlier species, Blackcap and Lesser Whitethroat, mainly because local temperatures for March had risen substantially. Except for Whitethroat, FADs were significantly related to temperatures in the African wintering ground and/or in Tatarstan. Whilst significant correlations occurred between FADs of some of the species, there was considerable variability in these relationships indicating a species-specific response to rising temperatures. Changes in FADs in this eastern extremity of Europe were smaller than in Central and Western Europe.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the southern hemisphere tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: prescribed versus interactive chemistry

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabine Haase ◽  
Jaika Fricke ◽  
Tim Kruschke ◽  
Sebastian Wahl ◽  
Katja Matthes
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract. Southern hemisphere lower stratospheric ozone depletion has been shown to lead to a poleward shift of the tropospheric jet stream during austral summer, influencing surface atmosphere and ocean conditions, such as surface temperatures and sea ice extent. The characteristics of stratospheric and tropospheric responses to ozone depletion, however, differ largely among climate models depending on the representation of ozone in the models. The most accurate way to represent ozone in a model is to calculate it interactively. However, due to computational costs, in particular for long-term coupled ocean-atmosphere model integrations, the more common way is to prescribe ozone from observations or calculated model fields. Here, we investigate the difference between an interactive and a specified chemistry version of the same atmospheric model in a fully-coupled setup using a 9-member chemistry-climate model ensemble. In the specified chemistry version of the model the ozone fields are prescribed using the output from the interactive chemistry model version. In contrast to earlier studies, we use daily-resolved ozone fields in the specified chemistry simulations to achieve a better comparability between the ozone forcing with and without interactive chemistry. We find that although the short-wave heating rate trend in response to ozone depletion is the same in the different chemistry settings, the interactive chemistry ensemble shows a stronger trend in polar cap stratospheric temperatures (by about 0.7 K per decade) and circumpolar stratospheric zonal mean zonal winds (by about 1.6 m/s per decade) as compared to the specified chemistry ensemble. This difference between interactive and specified chemistry in the stratospheric response to ozone depletion also affects the tropospheric response, namely the poleward shift of the tropospheric jet stream. We attribute part of these differences to the missing representation of feedbacks between chemistry and dynamics in the specified chemistry ensemble, which affect the dynamical heating rates, and part of it to the lack of spatial asymmetries in the prescribed ozone fields. This effect is investigated using a sensitivity ensemble that was forced by a three-dimensional instead of a two–dimensional ozone field. This study emphasizes the value of interactive chemistry for the representation of the southern hemisphere tropospheric jet response to ozone depletion and infers that for periods with strong ozone variability (trends) the details of the ozone forcing can be crucial for representing southern hemispheric climate variability.

scholarly journals A Dynamical Perspective on Atmospheric Temperature Variability and Its Response to Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 1707-1724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Talia Tamarin-Brodsky ◽  
Kevin Hodges ◽  
Brian J. Hoskins ◽  
Theodore G. Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Distribution ◽  
Spatial Structure ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Meridional Advection

Abstract The atmospheric temperature distribution is typically described by its mean and variance, while higher-order moments, such as skewness, have received less attention. Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry between the positive and negative tails of the distribution, which has implications for extremes. It was recently shown that near-surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere is positively skewed on the poleward side of the storm tracks and negatively skewed on the equatorward side. Here we take a dynamical approach to further study what controls the spatial structure of the near-surface temperature distribution in this region. We employ a tracking algorithm to study the formation, intensity, and movement of warm and cold temperature anomalies. We show that warm anomalies are generated on the equatorward side of the storm tracks and propagate poleward, while cold anomalies are generated on the poleward side and propagate equatorward. We further show that while the perturbation growth is mainly achieved through linear meridional advection, it is the nonlinear meridional advection that is responsible for the meridional movement of the temperature anomalies and therefore to the differential skewness. The projected poleward shift and increase of the temperature variance maximum in the Southern Hemisphere under global warming is shown to be composed of a poleward shift and increase in the maximum intensity of both warm and cold anomalies, and a decrease in their meridional displacements. An analytic expression is derived for the nonlinear meridional temperature tendency, which captures the spatial structure of the skewness and its projected changes.

scholarly journals The ozone hole indirect effect: Cloud-radiative anomalies accompanying the poleward shift of the eddy-driven jet in the Southern Hemisphere

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (14) ◽  
pp. 3688-3692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Grise ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani ◽  
George Tselioudis ◽  
Yutian Wu ◽  
Mark D. Zelinka
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Ozone Hole ◽  
Poleward Shift

scholarly journals Storm Tracks and Climate Change

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 3518-3543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Bengtsson ◽  
Kevin I. Hodges ◽  
Erich Roeckner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract Extratropical and tropical transient storm tracks are investigated from the perspective of feature tracking in the ECHAM5 coupled climate model for the current and a future climate scenario. The atmosphere-only part of the model, forced by observed boundary conditions, produces results that agree well with analyses from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), including the distribution of storms as a function of maximum intensity. This provides the authors with confidence in the use of the model for the climate change experiments. The statistical distribution of storm intensities is virtually preserved under climate change using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario until the end of this century. There are no indications in this study of more intense storms in the future climate, either in the Tropics or extratropics, but rather a minor reduction in the number of weaker storms. However, significant changes occur on a regional basis in the location and intensity of storm tracks. There is a clear poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere with consequences of reduced precipitation for several areas, including southern Australia. Changes in the Northern Hemisphere are less distinct, but there are also indications of a poleward shift, a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track, and a strengthening of the storm track north of the British Isles. The tropical storm tracks undergo considerable changes including a weakening in the Atlantic sector and a strengthening and equatorward shift in the eastern Pacific. It is suggested that some of the changes, in particular the tropical ones, are due to an SST warming maximum in the eastern Pacific. The shift in the extratropical storm tracks is shown to be associated with changes in the zonal SST gradient in particular for the Southern Hemisphere.

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