Lack of phenological shift leads to increased camouflage mismatch in mountain hares

Understanding whether organisms will be able to adapt to human-induced stressors currently endangering their existence is an urgent priority. Globally, multiple species moult from a dark summer to white winter coat to maintain camouflage against snowy landscapes. Decreasing snow cover duration owing to climate change is increasing mismatch in seasonal camouflage. To directly test for adaptive responses to recent changes in snow cover, we repeated historical (1950s) field studies of moult phenology in mountain hares ( Lepus timidus ) in Scotland. We found little evidence that population moult phenology has shifted to align seasonal coat colour with shorter snow seasons, or that phenotypic plasticity prevented increases in camouflage mismatch. The lack of responses resulted in 35 additional days of mismatch between 1950 and 2016. We emphasize the potential role of weak directional selection pressure and low genetic variability in shaping the scope for adaptive responses to anthropogenic stressors.

Prediction of Plant Phenological Shift under Climate Change in South Korea

Information on the phenological shift of plants can be used to detect climate change and predict changes in the ecosystem. In this study, the changes in first flowering dates (FFDs) of the plum tree (Prunus mume), Korean forsythia (Forsythia koreana), Korean rosebay (Rhododendron mucronulatum), cherry tree (Prunus yedoensis), and peach tree (Prunus persica) in Korea during 1920–2019 were investigated. In addition, the changes in the climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) and their relationship with the FFDs were analyzed. The changes in the temperature and precipitation during the January–February–March period and the phenological shifts of all research species during 1920–2019 indicate that warm and dry spring weather advances the FFDs. Moreover, the temperature has a greater impact on this phenological shift than precipitation. Earlier flowering species are more likely to advance their FFDs than later flowering species. Hence, the temporal asynchrony among plant species will become worse with climate change. In addition, the FFDs in 2100 were predicted based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The difference between the predicted FFDs of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 for 2100 was significant; the effectiveness of greenhouse gas policies will presumably determine the degree of the plant phenological shift in the future. Furthermore, we presented the predicted FFDs for 2100.

Phenological shifts and genetic differentiation between sympatric populations of Sargassum horneri (Fucales, Phaeophyceae) in Japan

Marked seasonality, especially in sexual reproduction, is common among seaweed species along temperate coasts and increases the possibility of successful fertilization in outcrossing species. A phenological shift in reproductive seasons, therefore, could be an effective isolation barrier between conspecific seasonal populations, although its power has not been verified in algae. Sargassum horneri, a major component of seaweed beds along the temperate coast of Japan, is known for variability in its reproductive phenology. To understand the significance of phenological shift as an isolation barrier in seaweed species, phenological investigations of S. horneri seasonal populations on the Sea of Japan coast of central Honshu, Japan, were combined with Bayesian cluster analysis based on a nuclear simple sequence repeat genotype. Results from these analyses concordantly suggest a genetic differentiation between the seasonal populations, although almost 20% of field-collected plants were estimated to be hybrids or have a hybrid origin based on results of Bayesian cluster analyses using experimental hybrids. A collapse of seasonal isolation was also detected at the site of the field investigation, and a high percentage of putative hybrids in the following generation at the site (41%) suggested significant seasonal isolation in the differentiation observed in this study.

Phenological shift in swarming patterns of Rhopilema nomadica in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Jellyfish (JF) swarms impact human wellbeing and marine ecosystems. Their global proliferation is a matter of concern and scientific debate, and the multitude of factors affecting (and affected by) their density and distribution merits long-term monitoring of their populations. Here we present an eight-year time series for Rhopilema nomadica, the most prominent JF species swarming the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Reports were submitted by the public and within it a group of trained participants via an internet website between June 2011 and June 2019. Data collected included species, size, location, ranked amount and stinging. Swarms of R. nomadica prevailed in July and ended in August but were also prominent in winter from January to March. Both observations deviate from past swarming patterns described in the late 1980s, when summer swarms persevered until October and winter swarms were not documented. Climate change (increasing water temperature) and the westwards up-current spread of R. nomadica are discussed as possible explanations for this phenological shift. We further demonstrate how data obtained by Citizen Science is used to develop a swarming indicator and monitor JF in time and space, and propose a forecast based on these observations.

Progressive delays in the timing of sardine migration in the southwest Indian Ocean

Phenological shifts represent one of the most robust bioindicators of climate change. While considerable multidecadal records of plant and animal phenology exist for the northern hemisphere, few noteworthy records are available for the southern hemisphere. We present one of the first phenological records of fish migration for the southern hemisphere, and one of the only phenological records for the southwest Indian Ocean. The so-called ‘sardine run’ – an annual winter migration of sardines, northeast of their summer spawning grounds on the Agulhas Bank off the coast of Durban, South Africa – has been well documented in local newspapers given the importance placed on fishing and fishing-tourism in the region. An analysis of the first arrival dates of sardines reveals a 1.3 day per decade delay over the period 1946–2012. Although this phenological shift reveals a poor association with sea surface temperatures (SST), it coincides with a poleward shift in the position of the 21 °C mean annual SST isotherm – the threshold temperature for sardine populations. The timing of sardine arrivals near Durban corresponds closely with the number of mid-latitude cyclones passing over the Durban coastline during the months of April and May. The strength of the run is strongly associated with ENSO conditions. The complex suite of factors associated with this phenological shift poses challenges in accurately modelling the future trajectory for this migratory event.

Aerial map demonstrates erosional patterns and changing topography at Isimila, Tanzania

Phenological shifts represent one of the most robust bioindicators of climate change. While considerable multidecadal records of plant and animal phenology exist for the northern hemisphere, few noteworthy records are available for the southern hemisphere. We present one of the first phenological records of fish migration for the southern hemisphere, and one of the only phenological records for the southwest Indian Ocean. The so-called ‘sardine run’ – an annual winter migration of sardines, northeast of their summer spawning grounds on the Agulhas Bank off the coast of Durban, South Africa – has been well documented in local newspapers given the importance placed on fishing and fishing-tourism in the region. An analysis of the first arrival dates of sardines reveals a 1.3 day per decade delay over the period 1946–2012. Although this phenological shift reveals a poor association with sea surface temperatures (SST), it coincides with a poleward shift in the position of the 21 °C mean annual SST isotherm – the threshold temperature for sardine populations. The timing of sardine arrivals near Durban corresponds closely with the number of mid-latitude cyclones passing over the Durban coastline during the months of April and May. The strength of the run is strongly associated with ENSO conditions. The complex suite of factors associated with this phenological shift poses challenges in accurately modelling the future trajectory for this migratory event.

Climate-induced phenological shift of apple trees has diverse effects on pollinators, herbivores and natural enemies

Climate change is altering the phenology of trophically linked organisms, leading to increased asynchrony between species with unknown consequences for ecosystem services. Although phenological mismatches are reported from several ecosystems, experimental evidence for altering multiple ecosystem services is hardly available. We examined how the phenological shift of apple trees affected the abundance and diversity of pollinators, generalist and specialist herbivores and predatory arthropods. We stored potted apple trees in the greenhouse or cold store in early spring before transferring them into orchards to cause mismatches and sampled arthropods on the trees repeatedly. Assemblages of pollinators on the manipulated and control trees differed markedly, but their overall abundance was similar indicating a potential insurance effect of wild bee diversity to ensure fruit set in flower-pollinator mismatch conditions. Specialized herbivores were almost absent from manipulated trees, while less-specialized ones showed diverse responses, confirming the expectation that more specialized interactions are more vulnerable to phenological mismatch. Natural enemies also responded to shifted apple tree phenology and the abundance of their prey. While arthropod abundances either declined or increased, species diversity tended to be lower on apple trees with shifted phenology. Our study indicates novel results on the role of biodiversity and specialization in plant-insect mismatch situations.