scholarly journals A neural network model for short-term forecasting of electricity generation by solar power plants

2020 ◽  
pp. 145-158
Author(s):  
Dmitry Tyunkov ◽  
◽  
Alexander Gritsay ◽  
Alina Sapilova ◽  
Alexandr Blokhin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Initial Data ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Solar Power Plants ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Today, energy consumption in the world is growing and it is becoming urgent to solve the problem of replacing traditional energy sources with alternative ones. The solution to this problem is impossible without a preliminary data analysis and further forecasting of energy production by alternative sources. However, the use of alternative energy sources in the conditions of the wholesale electricity and capacity market currently operating on the territory of the Russian Federation is impossible without the use of short-term predictive “day ahead” models. In this article, the authors perform a brief analysis of the existing methods of short-term forecasting which are used when making forecasts for the generation of electricity by solar power plants. Currently, there are already a fairly large number of predictive models built within each of the selected methods of short-term forecasting, and they all differ in their characteristics. Therefore, in order to identify the most promising method of short-term forecasting for further use and development, the authors used a previously developed classification. In the course of the study, a preliminary processing of initial data obtained from the existing solar power plants using spectral analysis was carried out. Further, to build a predictive model, a correlation analysis of the initial data was carried out, which showed the absence of a linear relationship between the components in the retrospective data. Based on the results of the correlation analysis the authors made a decision to select parameters empirically in order to build a predictive model. As a result of the study, a mathematical model based on an artificial neural network was proposed and a learning sample was generated for it. In addition, the architecture of an artificial neural network was determined, the result of which is a short-term forecast of electric power generation in the "day ahead" mode, and calculations were performed to obtain numerical values of the forecast. From the results of the study, it follows that the developed predictive model in the predicted interval has a mean absolute error of about 13.5 MW. However, at some intervals, the peak discrepancies can reach up to 200 MW. The root mean square error of the model is 27.8 MW.

scholarly journals Solar Power Plant Generation Short-Term Forecasting Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 208 ◽  
pp. 04004
Author(s):  
Stanislav Eroshenko ◽  
Elena Kochneva ◽  
Pavel Kruchkov ◽  
Aleksandra Khalyasmaa
Keyword(s):  
Power Plant ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Solar Power Plant ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Variable Capacity ◽  
Solar Power Plants ◽  
Rapid Pace ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Recently, renewable generation plays an increasingly important role in the energy balance. Solar energy is developing at a rapid pace, while the solar power plants output depends on weather conditions. Solar power plant output short-term forecasting is an urgent issue. The future electricity generation qualitative forecasts allow electricity producers and network operators to actively manage the variable capacity of solar power plants, and thereby to optimally integrate the solar resources into the country's overall power system. The article presents one of the possible approaches to the solution of the short-term forecasting problem of a solar power plant output.

scholarly journals Solar power generation short-term forecasting model’s implementation experience

2018 ◽  
Vol 208 ◽  
pp. 04005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Kochneva
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Market ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Solar Power Plants ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Installed Capacity

Recently there is significant increase in the installed capacity of solar power plants in Russia. Thereby there are issues of solar power plants owners information support for participation in wholesale electricity market. The paper describes the experience of short term forecasting system practical implementation. The system is proposed for forecasting the solar power plant generation “a day ahead” as a part of the software for automatic meter reading systems “Energosfera”. The short-term forecasting program modules structure, key parameters and characteristics used during the forecasting process description is presented.

scholarly journals Short-term forecasting of soil temperature using artificial neural network

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 576-585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Tabari ◽  
P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee ◽  
Patrick Willems
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

scholarly journals MODELING OF COMPATIBLE WORK OF DISTRIBUTED POWER SOURCES OF ELECTRIC POWER AND CENTRALISED POWER SUPPLY

2018 ◽  
pp. 189-195
Author(s):  
Petro Lezhnyuk ◽  
Iryna Hunko ◽  
Juliya Malogulko ◽  
Iryna Kotylko ◽  
Lіudmyla Krot
Keyword(s):  
Power Supply ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Hydroelectric Power Station ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Distributed Energy ◽  
Power Stations ◽  
Asynchronous Generator ◽  
Solar Power Plants

Urgency of the research. Current trends of distributed generation development in Ukraine indicate a rapid generation in-crease from renewable energy plants. Most developed countries gradually refuse from the fossil fuels use and invest more and more to the “green” energy. Therefore, there is a need for a detailed study of the operation conditions of distributed energy sources due to their instability, as well as the processes that arise in distribution electric networks with diverse types of distributed energy sources. Target setting. In the producing process of power energy by distributed energy sources due to the increase in their num-ber, there are situations where several renewable sources of energy operate to only one system of buses. Thus, such distributive networks acquire the features of a local power system, which complicates the control process of such systems, and also there is a problem with the electricity supply of consumers. Actual scientific researches and issues analysis. The analysis of publications suggests that in literature more attention is paid to studying the operating modes of solar power plants, or small hydroelectric power plants. However, almost no attention was paid to the study of their cooperation work. Uninvestigated parts of general matters defining. Only a few works are devoted to the study of the cooperation of the diverce sources of distributed energy sources in the local electrical systems. That is why, their impact on power distribution networks and on the grid in general has not been studied extensively. The research objective. In this article was considered the influence of asynchronous generators on small hydroelectric power plants on the operation modes of distribution electrical networks, and were investigated the processes that are occurring in local power systems with different types of distributed energy sources. The statement of basic materials. Based on the research results, was developed a computer model of a such system in the PS CAD software environment. Two solar stations and one small hydroelectric power station with an asynchronous generator were connected to the power supply. It was shown the simulation of two modes of operation: a joint operation of a small hydroelectric power station, two solar power stations and a power supply center; a joint operation of a small hydroelectric pow-er plant, two solar power stations and a power supply disconnected. Conclusions. As a result of computer simulation, it is shown that by switching on a small hydroelectric power plant with an asynchronous generator in the case of an emergency shutdown of centralized power supply, it is possible to restore the work of solar power plants, and thus partially or completely restore the power supply of consumers.

Socio-environmental and Economic Problems of Solar Panels Recycling

2020 ◽  
pp. 48-55
Author(s):  
Olena I. Matsenko ◽  
Vladyslav S. Tereshchenko ◽  
Vladyslav S. Piven ◽  
Andrii A. Panchenko ◽  
Evhenyi A. Perekhod
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Alternative Energy ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Economic Problem ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Solar Power Plants ◽  
Technical Specifications

The use of alternative energy sources, in particular solar energy, has gained rapid growth in recent years. This trend is prompting manufacturers of equipment for solar power plants to increase production volumes. At the same time, the question arises of the disposal of used modules, because each material has its service life. According to technical specifications, the average life of solar modules and batteries is 25-30 years. Decommissioning may occur earlier than this time due to the following reasons – moral and physical deterioration, mechanical damage, replacement of obsolete equipment with new, modernization of solar power plants. Already in 2030, it will be necessary to replace the solar modules installed in 2000. Therefore, there are acute questions not only regarding the development of technologies for processing waste equipment from solar power plants but also organizational and economic methods. This article discusses the main problems that arise during the utilization and recycling of solar modules, analyzes the experience of countries in resolving these issues. After all, the use of renewable energy sources should minimize the negative impact on the environment from energy production at all stages – from the production of equipment for a power plant to the disposal and recycling of this equipment. Keywords: solar panel, recycling, economic method, solar power, natural resource, economic problem, environment, renewable energy.

scholarly journals Study on Dust Deposition Mechanics on Solar Mirrors in a Solar Power Plant

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 4550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueqing Liu ◽  
Song Yue ◽  
Luyi Lu ◽  
Jianlan Li
Keyword(s):  
Power Plants ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Dust Particles ◽  
Particle Collision ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Solar Power Plant ◽  
Dust Deposition ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Solar Power Plants

Solar energy is considered to be one of most promising renewable energy sources because of its availability and cleanliness. The phenomenon of dust deposition on solar mirrors greatly reduces the power generation of solar power plants. In this work, the motion behaviors and deposition mechanics of dust particles are analyzed by the discrete element method (DEM). The effects of environmental and solar mirror conditions and particle self-factors on dust deposition weight are systematically studied here. The research results show that dust particles, after particle collision, immediately adhere to the mirror or rebound and finally flow away from the mirror, or they otherwise may remain stationary after making some relative motion. Alternatively, they may glide for some distance and finally come to rest on the mirror or leave from the system. Different motion behaviors after particle collision depend on different leading forces. Here, the leading forces are the liquid bridge force (Fc) and the contact force (Fb). When the leading forces are Fc, or Fc, and Fb, the dust particles will be deposited on the solar mirror. Besides, the force Fc cannot be negligible when studying the motion processes of dust particles. The dust deposition weight on solar mirrors can be controlled by altering the environmental and solar mirror conditions, and particle self-factors. In essence, dust deposition weight on solar mirrors decreases when decreasing the leading force Fc or increasing the leading force Fb. The research results give theoretical guidance for the prevention and removal of dust deposition on solar mirrors.

scholarly journals Applications of a shadow camera system for energy meteorology

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 11-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Kuhn ◽  
Stefan Wilbert ◽  
Christoph Prahl ◽  
Dominik Garsche ◽  
David Schüler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Camera System ◽  
Plant Operations ◽  
Electricity Grids ◽  
Solar Power Plants ◽  
Sky Imager

Abstract. Downward-facing shadow cameras might play a major role in future energy meteorology. Shadow cameras directly image shadows on the ground from an elevated position. They are used to validate other systems (e.g. all-sky imager based nowcasting systems, cloud speed sensors or satellite forecasts) and can potentially provide short term forecasts for solar power plants. Such forecasts are needed for electricity grids with high penetrations of renewable energy and can help to optimize plant operations. In this publication, two key applications of shadow cameras are briefly presented.

Solar Radiation Intensity Data as Basis for Predicting Functioning Modes of Solar Power Plants

2018 ◽  
pp. 283-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuliia Daus ◽  
Valeriy Kharchenko ◽  
Igor Viktorovich Yudaev
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Initial Data ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Intensity Data ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Solar Radiation Intensity ◽  
Solar Power Plants ◽  
Express Methods

The chapter presents express methods for estimating the solar energy potential at a given point on the basis of combining the solar radiation daily profile application method under clear skies and actinometrical data of the NASA electronic base. Such a new approach including the climatological conditions of the region, significantly reduces the calculation time, and improves the accuracy of the decisions with a minimum of initial data. For the speed and convenience of calculations based on the proposed methodology, it was implemented in the form of a computer program. The article also analyzes the influence of spatial orientation on the maximum electricity produced during the month, season and year and it reveals that the use of an optimal inclination angle for the specified periods of time makes it possible to realize the existing solar potential of the region at the same capital expenditures.

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