Subsidies and Fiscal Deficit in Post Reforms India

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasoda Jena ◽  
Chittaranjan Nayak
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Goods ◽  
Annual Time

The Government of India has been subsidising various economic goods, mainly food, fertiliser and petroleum. It is argued that subsidies are responsible for persistent high fiscal deficit over the years. The present paper attempts to study the trend of major subsidies given by the Government of India, and then examines whether all the forms of subsidies are uniformly responsible for fiscal deficit or otherwise. Based on annual time series data from 1992-93 to 2012-13, the study observes that in the post-reforms period, food and fertiliser subsidies have grown at a sharper rate than petroleum subsidies. The regression results also confirm that food and fertiliser subsidies have a positive and significant impact on fiscal deficit. The analysis of petroleum subsidies is more complicated. If we see only the explicit subsidies for petroleum products, then their rise is not significant over the post-reforms period, except for 2008-12. However, when we include the under-recoveries of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), the story of petroleum subsidies becomes completely different. While the effectiveness of subsidies vis-à-vis their fiscal burden need a detailed scrutiny, the present paper argues for a National Policy on Subsidies.

scholarly journals Impact of Fiscal Deficit on Inflation in Sri Lanka: An Econometric Time Series Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 70 ◽  
pp. 8-13
Author(s):  
A.L.M. Aslam ◽  
S.M. Ahamed Lebbe
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Annual Time

There is a relationship between the fiscal deficit and inflation, which was confirmed empirically in several studies conducted in many countries. Sri Lanka has been encountering the problem of inflation for the recent years. But in Sri Lanka, this proposition has not yet been studied scientifically. Therefore, this study was going to fill this gap. The objective of this study was to test the impact of fiscal deficit on inflation in Sri Lanka. For this study, the annual time series data were used during the period of 1959 to 2013. The fiscal deficit, exchange rate, government expenditures and import outflow were used as independent variables while the Colombo consumer price index was considered as dependent variable. In addition, the multiple regressions model was used to test the impact of fiscal deficit on inflation. Based on the regression results, the fiscal deficit preserved the positive relationship with inflation in Sri Lanka at one percent significant level. Therefore, this study confirmed that the fiscal deficit accelerates the inflation in Sri Lanka.

Income and Price Elasticities in India's Trade

1994 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-20
Author(s):  
G S Gupta ◽  
H Keshava
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Price Elasticities ◽  
The World ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Income And Price Elasticities ◽  
Annual Time

This article by G S Gupta and H Keshava estimates the export and import functions for India both at the aggregate (rest of the world) as well as the important individual country levels using annual time series data for the period 1960-61 through 1990-91.

scholarly journals OPEN DEFECATION IN MALAWI: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 156-165
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Open Defecation ◽  
Sanitation And Hygiene ◽  
Vision 2030 ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Malawi from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the M series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Malawi is likely to decline, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 5.1% to almost 2.8% of the total population. Indeed, by 2030, open defecation can be eliminated in Malawi: hence, the country is in the right track with regards to its vision 2030 (on water, sanitation and hygiene). The study suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Malawi.

scholarly journals Total new HIV infections in Togo: a box-jenkins arima approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 16-21
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Normally Distributed

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Togo from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The research applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, J, the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is indeed stable and its residuals are not serially correlated and are also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Togo is projected to decline sharply by 53.5% from the estimated 4791 new infections in 2019 to approximately 2229 new infections by 2030.

scholarly journals Impact of Remittance on Economic Development of Nepal

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-30
Author(s):  
Rameshwar Acharya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Annual Time

This study assesses the impact of remittance on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross National Product (GNP) and Per Capita Income (PCI) of Nepal employing multiple regression method on national annual time series data for a period of 41 years (from 1974/75 to 2014/15). The results show that there is positive impact of remittance on GDP, GNP and PCI. Further, the findings clearly provide an evidence of predictive power of fixed capital formation on economic development. But the role of export could not be established. Finally, to foster the economic development, it is suggested that the government should initiate policy to channelize the remittance income into the productive uses by offering attractive investment schemes to the remittance receiving families.

scholarly journals Total New Hiv Infections In Gabon: A Box-Jenkins Arima Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Parsimonious Model ◽  
Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Gabon from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The paper employs the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, H, the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model as the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is very stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Gabon is likely to continue declining over the out-of-sample period.

scholarly journals Open defecation in Kenya: A Box-Jenkins Arima Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Total Population ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Policy Recommendation ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Open Defecation ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Kenya from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The authors apply the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the ODK series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Kenya is likely to decline, although slightly, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 9.9% to almost 8.2% of the total population. Hence, it is possible for Kenya to completely eliminate the practice of open defecation by 2030. The study basically suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Kenya.

scholarly journals Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 51-55
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Parsimonious Model ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Prevalence Of Anemia ◽  
Children Under 5

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Myanmar from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AM, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) model, which is also called the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model. This has been found to be the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the research indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar will rise from approximately 54.5% in 2017 to almost 64.8% by 2025. This means that anemia is not yet under control in the country. This is a wake up call to both public health policy makers and nutrition specialists in the country. Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Myanmar from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AM, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) model, which is also called the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model. 

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