scholarly journals Impact of Fiscal Deficit on Inflation in Sri Lanka: An Econometric Time Series Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 70 ◽  
pp. 8-13
Author(s):  
A.L.M. Aslam ◽  
S.M. Ahamed Lebbe
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Annual Time

There is a relationship between the fiscal deficit and inflation, which was confirmed empirically in several studies conducted in many countries. Sri Lanka has been encountering the problem of inflation for the recent years. But in Sri Lanka, this proposition has not yet been studied scientifically. Therefore, this study was going to fill this gap. The objective of this study was to test the impact of fiscal deficit on inflation in Sri Lanka. For this study, the annual time series data were used during the period of 1959 to 2013. The fiscal deficit, exchange rate, government expenditures and import outflow were used as independent variables while the Colombo consumer price index was considered as dependent variable. In addition, the multiple regressions model was used to test the impact of fiscal deficit on inflation. Based on the regression results, the fiscal deficit preserved the positive relationship with inflation in Sri Lanka at one percent significant level. Therefore, this study confirmed that the fiscal deficit accelerates the inflation in Sri Lanka.

Subsidies and Fiscal Deficit in Post Reforms India

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasoda Jena ◽  
Chittaranjan Nayak
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Goods ◽  
Annual Time

The Government of India has been subsidising various economic goods, mainly food, fertiliser and petroleum. It is argued that subsidies are responsible for persistent high fiscal deficit over the years. The present paper attempts to study the trend of major subsidies given by the Government of India, and then examines whether all the forms of subsidies are uniformly responsible for fiscal deficit or otherwise. Based on annual time series data from 1992-93 to 2012-13, the study observes that in the post-reforms period, food and fertiliser subsidies have grown at a sharper rate than petroleum subsidies. The regression results also confirm that food and fertiliser subsidies have a positive and significant impact on fiscal deficit. The analysis of petroleum subsidies is more complicated. If we see only the explicit subsidies for petroleum products, then their rise is not significant over the post-reforms period, except for 2008-12. However, when we include the under-recoveries of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), the story of petroleum subsidies becomes completely different. While the effectiveness of subsidies vis-à-vis their fiscal burden need a detailed scrutiny, the present paper argues for a National Policy on Subsidies.

Income and Price Elasticities in India's Trade

1994 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-20
Author(s):  
G S Gupta ◽  
H Keshava
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Price Elasticities ◽  
The World ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Income And Price Elasticities ◽  
Annual Time

This article by G S Gupta and H Keshava estimates the export and import functions for India both at the aggregate (rest of the world) as well as the important individual country levels using annual time series data for the period 1960-61 through 1990-91.

scholarly journals UNEMPLOYMENT AND MONETARY POLICY DYNAMICS IN PAKISTAN: EVIDENCE FROM COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-09
Author(s):  
Hina Ali ◽  
Muhammad Zeeshan Ali ◽  
Farhana Nosheen ◽  
Afifa Sadar Ud Din
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Development Rate ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Dynamics ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of monetary policy on unemployment in Pakistan. The time-series data for 1977 to 2019 was taken and the ARDL technique is used for estimation. Unemployment was used as a dependent variable along with other control variables while the money supply was the core independent variable of the research. It was concluded that money related arrangement not just contributes to observing past patterns and additionally future projections of superficial factors of real factors also. The outcomes show that there is a critical and negative connection between spending Deficit and unemployment. The gross domestic product development rate is decidedly identified with unemployment. Populace development rate is adversely identified with unemployment. The consumer price index is contrarily identified with unemployment.

scholarly journals Fiscal Consolidation and Macroeconomic Variables in India: A Cointegration Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chittaranjan Nayak ◽  
Manaswini Panda
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
The Impact

Fiscal consolidation is in the forefront of policy discussion in India since 1990s. But the debate on fiscal consolidation and its real effects has been unable to attain any culmination so far on analytical as well as empirical grounds. The present paper tries to examine the impact of fiscal consolidation on growth, inflation, private investment, and exchange rate in India by analysing a time series data for the period from 1980-81 to 2013-14. The paper observes that there exists a long run relationship between GDP, fiscal consolidation, inflation and private investment. Fiscal deficit reduces GDP significantly. This finding gives empirical support to the neoclassical school of thought. However, the paper does not find any significant crowding-out evidence in India. The conclusion as such is sensitive to lag selection, and inclusion of variables. Although necessary diagnostic checking has been done, a robust analysis warrants a longer time series. The question remains inconclusive that if fiscal deficit does not cause significant crowding-out of private investment, then what are the channels of its negative influence on GDP.

scholarly journals Total new HIV infections in Togo: a box-jenkins arima approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 16-21
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Normally Distributed

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Togo from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The research applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, J, the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is indeed stable and its residuals are not serially correlated and are also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Togo is projected to decline sharply by 53.5% from the estimated 4791 new infections in 2019 to approximately 2229 new infections by 2030.

scholarly journals Impact of Remittance on Economic Development of Nepal

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-30
Author(s):  
Rameshwar Acharya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Annual Time

This study assesses the impact of remittance on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross National Product (GNP) and Per Capita Income (PCI) of Nepal employing multiple regression method on national annual time series data for a period of 41 years (from 1974/75 to 2014/15). The results show that there is positive impact of remittance on GDP, GNP and PCI. Further, the findings clearly provide an evidence of predictive power of fixed capital formation on economic development. But the role of export could not be established. Finally, to foster the economic development, it is suggested that the government should initiate policy to channelize the remittance income into the productive uses by offering attractive investment schemes to the remittance receiving families.

scholarly journals Implementation of α-Sutte Indicator to Forecasting Consumer Price Index in Turkey

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ansari Saleh Ahmar ◽  
Abdul Rahman ◽  
Usman Mulbar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Test Data ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Reference Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Forecast Data

α-Sutte Indicator (α-Sutte) was originally from developed of Sutte Indicator. Sutte Indicator can use to predict the movement of stocks. As the development of science, then Sutte Indicator developed to predict not only the movement of stocks but also can forecast data on financial, insurance, and time series data. This method called α-Sutte Indicator (α-Sutte). α-Sutte was developed using the principle of the forecasting method of using the previous data. The data used in this research is Consumer Price Index in Turkey data from January 2003 - June 2017. This data is divided into 2 parts, namely training data and test data. Training data starts from January 2003 - October 2016 and test data from November 2016 - June 2017. To see the accuracy of α-Sutte, it will be done benchmarking the results of forecasting with other forecasting method is Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R (AutoARIMA) developed by Hyndman-Khandakar (2008). Comparison of this accuracy is to compare the value of MSE forecasting result on test data by using training data as reference data. Results obtained from this study that the MSE value of α-Sutte is smaller (5.697723) than MSE from AutoARIMA (292.5125). This indicates that α-Sutte is more suitable for predicting Consumer Price Index in Turkey data.

scholarly journals Total New Hiv Infections In Gabon: A Box-Jenkins Arima Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Parsimonious Model ◽  
Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Gabon from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The paper employs the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, H, the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model as the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is very stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Gabon is likely to continue declining over the out-of-sample period.

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