Rapid Prediction of Strong Ground Motions from Major Earthquakes: An Example in the Wudu Basin, Sichuan, China

Author(s):  
Xiaolong Zhang ◽  
Xiaobo Peng ◽  
Shaolin Chen ◽  
Xiaojun Li ◽  
Zhan Dou ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT Rapid prediction of ground motions of major earthquakes can assist emergency response and postseismic damage assessment. Numerical simulations can perform such prediction. However, they need a large number of calculations based on real data and depend on large-scale computation resources, limiting practice of real-time prediction. To solve this problem, this article proposes a new prediction method based on a 3D transfer function, which is obtained by solving the site seismic response to three impulse function excitations that can be calculated by different pre-event 3D physics-based numerical simulations. This approach only needs one seismic record in the study area and can quickly (near-real time) predict ground motions in the whole study area. We verify the proposed approach with an Mw 5.7 aftershock of the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in the Wudu basin, Sichuan Province, China. The results show that this method is feasible and has sufficient accuracy in nearly real-time prediction of seismic ground motions.

2011 ◽  
Vol 94-96 ◽  
pp. 38-42
Author(s):  
Qin Liu ◽  
Jian Min Xu

In order to improve the prediction precision of the short-term traffic flow, a prediction method of short-term traffic flow based on cloud model was proposed. The traffic flow was fit by cloud model. The history cloud and the present cloud were built by historical traffic flow and present traffic flow. The forecast cloud is produced by both clouds. Then, combining with the volume of the short-term traffic flow of an intersection in Guangzhou City, the model was calculated and simulated through programming. Max Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute percent Error (MAPE) were used to estimate the effect of prediction. The simulation results indicate that this prediction method is effective and advanced. The change of the historical and real time traffic flow is taken into account in this method. Because the short-term traffic flow is dealt with as a whole, the error of prediction is avoided. The prediction precision and real-time prediction are satisfied.


2013 ◽  
Vol 321-324 ◽  
pp. 757-761 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Liang Song ◽  
Zhen Liu ◽  
Bin Long ◽  
Cheng Lin Yang

According to the real-time prediction for performance degradation trend, the commonly used method is just based on field data. But this methods prediction result will not be so much ideal when the fitting of degradation trend of field data is not good. To solve the problem, the paper introduces a new method which is not only based on field method but also based on reliability experimental data coming from the history experiment. We use the relationship between the field data and reliability experimental data to get the result of the two kinds of data respectively and then get the weights according to the two prediction results. Finally, the final real-time prediction result for performance degradation tendency can obtain by allocating the weights to the two prediction results.


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 2301-2312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robbie Jones ◽  
Vern Manville ◽  
Jeff Peakall ◽  
Melanie J. Froude ◽  
Henry M. Odbert

Abstract. Rain-triggered lahars are a significant secondary hydrological and geomorphic hazard at volcanoes where unconsolidated pyroclastic material produced by explosive eruptions is exposed to intense rainfall, often occurring for years to decades after the initial eruptive activity. Previous studies have shown that secondary lahar initiation is a function of rainfall parameters, source material characteristics and time since eruptive activity. In this study, probabilistic rain-triggered lahar forecasting models are developed using the lahar occurrence and rainfall record of the Belham River valley at the Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat, collected between April 2010 and April 2012. In addition to the use of peak rainfall intensity (PRI) as a base forecasting parameter, considerations for the effects of rainfall seasonality and catchment evolution upon the initiation of rain-triggered lahars and the predictability of lahar generation are also incorporated into these models. Lahar probability increases with peak 1 h rainfall intensity throughout the 2-year dataset and is higher under given rainfall conditions in year 1 than year 2. The probability of lahars is also enhanced during the wet season, when large-scale synoptic weather systems (including tropical cyclones) are more common and antecedent rainfall and thus levels of deposit saturation are typically increased. The incorporation of antecedent conditions and catchment evolution into logistic-regression-based rain-triggered lahar probability estimation models is shown to enhance model performance and displays the potential for successful real-time prediction of lahars, even in areas featuring strongly seasonal climates and temporal catchment recovery.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Gajender Kumar Kumar

As India's largest employer has gone digital, this is the beginning of mass acquisition in a new dimension. Indian Railways serves on a peripheral scale in the size of each aircraft. It carries 23,000 passengers and over 3 million tonnes daily, with more than 12,000 passengers traveling at 115,000 km and 7000 stations. But as the nation's largest employer has begun to digitalize its services operations, it is beginning to gain mass in an emerging dimension. The network collects around 100 datasets per user (one truffle is enough to store 500–1000 movies). This passenger booking plate has 25 million users, leading to approximately 800,000 daily transactions. Such is the creation of a digital scale railway ecosystem, a fertile ground for entrepreneurs, employers and large scale technology for testing and testing. And while Railways has made a good start by integrating third parties with third parties, the company can create a seamless experience in booking, payment and other services at the top of the railway data pipeline. Here we have several ways to verify a passenger or passenger ticket, which will be discussed one by one on Fig.1. We understand here that the N computer system (server) is available in the availability center and the availability train provided by the NECC (North Eastern Carrying Corporation Ltd). Each seat or chair acts as a spring (Smart) chair, which means that we are connected to a ticket scanner or chair that can scan tickets and send the actual data to the field node (fog node). Later, the latest analysis will result in the proposed data and the final data that will be sent to the cloud. We are connected to multiple devices to share real-time data and updated real-time data on the cloud. We have created a fog environment and a cloud environment. We have implemented this with the help of clipping and sending data by sending real data separately. We have created a smart gateway between military (Servers) and customer (sensor), cloud and customer (sensor). In this paper, there is the solution that can enhanced the chances of getting confirm ticket, based on individual server load in coaches of the train, according to the increase in the number of sensors request, in the context of processing and considering three cases , it is an answer by analysing cloud-fog scenario. Up to this implementation the simple round robin algorithm is also used solution for load balancing purpose. The method is implemented by using a class student attendance system in a college level.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document