scholarly journals Reply to “Comment on ‘Total Probability Theorem Versus Shakeability: A Comparison between Two Seismic‐Hazard Approaches Used in Central Asia’ by D. Bindi and S. Parolai” by A. A. Gusev

2016 ◽  
Vol 87 (5) ◽  
pp. 1125-1129
Author(s):  
D. Bindi ◽  
S. Parolai
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Total Probability ◽  
Theorem Versus ◽  
Total Probability Theorem

An Efficient Method to Calculate the Failure Rate of Dynamic Systems with Random Parameters Using the Total Probability Theorem

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 623-631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Majcher ◽  
Zissimos P. Mourelatos ◽  
Vasileios Geroulas ◽  
Igor Baseski ◽  
Amandeep Singh
Keyword(s):  
Failure Rate ◽  
Efficient Method ◽  
Dynamic Systems ◽  
Total Probability ◽  
Random Parameters ◽  
Total Probability Theorem

Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Vibratory Systems With Random Parameters

2016 ◽  
Vol 138 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zissimos P. Mourelatos ◽  
Monica Majcher ◽  
Vasileios Geroulas
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Total Probability ◽  
Conditional Probabilities ◽  
Random Parameters ◽  
Random Vibrations ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Total Probability Theorem ◽  
Dependent Probability

The field of random vibrations of large-scale systems with millions of degrees-of-freedom (DOF) is of significant importance in many engineering disciplines. In this paper, we propose a method to calculate the time-dependent reliability of linear vibratory systems with random parameters excited by nonstationary Gaussian processes. The approach combines principles of random vibrations, the total probability theorem, and recent advances in time-dependent reliability using an integral equation involving the upcrossing and joint upcrossing rates. A space-filling design, such as optimal symmetric Latin hypercube (OSLH) sampling, is first used to sample the input parameter space. For each design point, the corresponding conditional time-dependent probability of failure is calculated efficiently using random vibrations principles to obtain the statistics of the output process and an efficient numerical estimation of the upcrossing and joint upcrossing rates. A time-dependent metamodel is then created between the input parameters and the output conditional probabilities allowing us to estimate the conditional probabilities for any set of input parameters. The total probability theorem is finally applied to calculate the time-dependent probability of failure. The proposed method is demonstrated using a vibratory beam example.

Reliability Model of Gear With Correlated Failure Modes Based on Joint Distribution

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lai Yue-Hua ◽  
Dong Hai-Ping ◽  
Yi Xiao-Jian ◽  
Ding Juan ◽  
Lei Hua-Jin
Keyword(s):  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Total Probability ◽  
Traditional Model ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Interference Theory ◽  
Calculation Results ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Total Probability Theorem

In this paper, a precise reliability model for gear with correlated failure modes is presented. Firstly, physical models of stress and strength are set up against two main failure modes of a gear respectively. Then, the corresponding performance functions to the two failure modes are obtained according to stress-strength interference theory regarding randomness of variables in physical models of stress and strength. Furthermore, joint distribution of the two performance functions is deduced by Total Probability Theorem considering the correlation of random variables. So, reliability of a gear with correlated failure modes can be computed based on the joint distribution. Finally, an example is given and in this example the precise reliability model based on joint distribution and the traditional reliability model without considering the correlation of failure modes, are respectively adopted to calculate reliability of a gear. The calculation results are compared with that by Monte Carlo simulation and the compared results show that the gear’s reliability obtained by considering correlation of failure modes based on joint distribution is more accurate than that by the traditional model without considering the correlation of failure modes.

scholarly journals Note on seismic hazard assessment using gradient of uplift velocities in the Turan block (Central Asia)

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Jaboyedoff ◽  
M.-H. Derron ◽  
G. M. Manby
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Upper Crust ◽  
Rheologic Property ◽  
Hazard Zone ◽  
Highly Strained

Abstract. Uplift gradients can provide the location of highly strained zones, which can be considered to be seismic. The Turan block (Central Asia) contains zones with high gradient of uplift velocities, above the threshold 0.04mm km-1year-1. Some of these zones are associated with important seismic activity and others are not correlated with any recent important recorded earthquakes, however, recent faults scarps as well as diverted rivers may indicate a recent tectonic activity. This threshold of gradient is probably a significant rheologic property of the upper crust. On the basis of these considerations the Uzboy river area is proposed as a potential high seismic hazard zone.

scholarly journals Hazard-Consistent Earthquake Scenario Selection for Seismic Slope Stability Assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 4977
Author(s):  
Alexey Konovalov ◽  
Yuriy Gensiorovskiy ◽  
Andrey Stepnov
Keyword(s):  
Slope Stability ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Slope Failure ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Seismic Loading ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Total Probability ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Earthquake Scenario

Design ground shaking intensity, based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) maps, is most commonly used as a triggering condition to analyze slope stability under seismic loading. Uncertainties that are associated with expected ground motion levels are often ignored. This study considers an improved, fully probabilistic approach for earthquake scenario selection. The given method suggests the determination of the occurrence probability of various ground motion levels and the probability of landsliding for these ground motion parameters, giving the total probability of slope failure under seismic loading in a certain time interval. The occurrence hazard deaggregation technique is proposed for the selection of the ground shaking level, as well as the magnitude and source-to-site distance of a design earthquake, as these factors most probably trigger slope failure within the time interval of interest. An example application of the approach is provided for a slope near the highway in the south of Sakhalin Island (Russia). The total probability of earthquake-induced slope failure in the next 50 years was computed to be in the order of 16%. The scenario peak ground acceleration value estimated from the disaggregated earthquake-induced landslide hazard is 0.15g, while the 475-year seismic hazard curve predicts 0.3g. The case study highlights the significant difference between ground shaking scenario levels in terms of the 475-year seismic hazard map and the considered fully probabilistic approach.

scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Bayankhongor aimag of Mongolia

2019 ◽  
pp. 43-56
Author(s):  
Ankhtsetseg D ◽  
Odonbaatar Ch ◽  
Mоngоnsuren D ◽  
Bayarsaikhan E ◽  
Dembereldulam M
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Active Regions ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Probability Of Exceedance ◽  
Area Source

Central Asia is one of the seismically most active regions in the world. Its complex seismicity is due to the collision of the Eurasian and Indian plates, which has resulted in some of the world’s largest intra-plate events over history. The region is dominated by reverse faulting over strike slip and normal faulting events.The GSHAP project, aiming at hazard assessment on a global scale, indicates that the territory of Bayankhongor aimag, Mongolia, in Central Asia is characterized by maximum bedrock peak ground accelerations for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years as medium as in range of 80 to 160cm/s2. In this study, which has been carried out within the framework of the project “Seismic microzoning map of center of 12 aimags, Mongolia”, the area source model and different kernel approaches are used for a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Mongolia. The seismic hazard is assessed considering shallow (depth <50 km) seismicity only and employs an updated (with respect to previous projects) earthquake catalogue for the region. The hazard maps, shown in terms of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, are derived by using the Open Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (ODPSHA), which is based on the Cornell methodology. The maximum hazard observed in the region reaches 93-98 cm/s2 , which in intensity corresponds to VII in MSK64 scale in the centre of Bayankhongor aimag for 475 years mean return period.

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