scholarly journals Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited

1998 ◽  
Vol 88 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-130
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Michael ◽  
Lucile M. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Uniform Distribution ◽  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Background Seismicity ◽  
Parkfield Earthquake ◽  
The U.S

Abstract For a decade, the U.S. Geological Survey has used the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment scenario document to estimate the probability that earthquakes observed on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield will turn out to be foreshocks followed by the expected magnitude 6 mainshocks. During this time, we have learned much about the seismogenic process at Parkfield, about the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock, and about the estimation of these types of probabilities. The probabilities for potential foreshocks at Parkfield are reexamined and revised in light of these advances. As part of this process, we have confirmed both the rate of foreshocks before strike-slip earthquakes in the San Andreas physiographic province and the uniform distribution of foreshocks with magnitude proposed by earlier studies. Compared to the earlier assessment, these new estimates of the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock are lower, our estimate of the rate of background seismicity is higher, and we find that the assumption that foreshocks at Parkfield occur in a unique way is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. While the exact numbers vary depending on the assumptions that are made, the new alert probabilities are lower than previously estimated. Considering the various assumptions and the statistical uncertainties in the input parameters, we also compute a plausible range for the probabilities. The range is large, partly due to the extra knowledge that exists for the Parkfield segment, making us question the usefulness of these numbers.

Localization of seismicity prior to large earthquakes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilya Zaliapin ◽  
Yehuda Ben-Zion
Keyword(s):  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Rock Damage ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
Background Seismicity ◽  
Seismogenic Faults ◽  
Parkfield Earthquake ◽  
Background Events ◽  
Large Earthquakes

<p>We present results aimed at understanding preparation processes of large earthquakes by tracking progressive localization of earthquake deformation with three complementary analyses: (i) estimated production of rock damage by background events, (ii) spatial localization of background seismicity within damaged areas, and (iii) progressive coalescence of individual earthquakes into clusters. Techniques (i) and (ii) employ declustered catalogs to avoid the occasional strong fluctuations associated with aftershock sequences, while technique (iii) examines developing clusters in entire catalog data. The different techniques provide information on different time scales and on the spatial extent of weakened damaged regions. The analyses reveal generation of earthquake-induced rock damage on a decadal timescale around eventual rupture zones, and progressive localization of background seismicity on a 2-3 yr timescale before several M > 7 earthquakes in southern and Baja California and M7.9 events in Alaska. This is followed by coalescence of earthquakes into growing clusters that precede the mainshocks. Corresponding analysis around the 2004 M6 Parkfield earthquake in the creeping section of the San Andreas fault shows contrasting tendencies to those associated with the large seismogenic faults. The results are consistent with observations from laboratory experiments and physics-based models with heterogeneous materials not dominated by a pre-existing failure zone. Continuing studies with these techniques, combined with analysis of geodetic data and insights from laboratory experiments and model simulations, may allow developing an integrated multi-signal procedure to estimate the approaching time and size of large earthquakes.</p>

Microearthquake seismicity and tectonics of Coastal Northern California

1970 ◽  
Vol 60 (5) ◽  
pp. 1669-1699 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Seeber ◽  
Muawia Barazangi ◽  
Ali Nowroozi
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Fault Plane ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
High Gain ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Northern California ◽  
Fault Plane Solutions ◽  
Sharp Bend ◽  
San Andreas

Abstract This paper demonstrates that high-gain, high-frequency portable seismographs operated for short intervals can provide unique data on the details of the current tectonic activity in a very small area. Five high-frequency, high-gain seismographs were operated at 25 sites along the coast of northern California during the summer of 1968. Eighty per cent of 160 microearthquakes located in the Cape Mendocino area occurred at depths between 15 and 35 km in a well-defined, horizontal seismic layer. These depths are significantly greater than those reported for other areas along the San Andreas fault system in California. Many of the earthquakes of the Cape Mendocino area occurred in sequences that have approximately the same magnitude versus length of faulting characteristics as other California earthquakes. Consistent first-motion directions are recorded from microearthquakes located within suitably chosen subdivisions of the active area. Composite fault plane solutions indicate that right-lateral movement prevails on strike-slip faults that radiate from Cape Mendocino northwest toward the Gorda basin. This is evidence that the Gorda basin is undergoing internal deformation. Inland, east of Cape Mendocino, a significant component of thrust faulting prevails for all the composite fault plane solutions. Thrusting is predominant in the fault plane solution of the June 26 1968 earthquake located along the Gorda escarpement. In general, the pattern of slip is consistent with a north-south crustal shortening. The Gorda escarpment, the Mattole River Valley, and the 1906 fault break northwest of Shelter Cove define a sharp bend that forms a possible connection between the Mendocino escarpment and the San Andreas fault. The distribution of hypocenters, relative travel times of P waves, and focal mechanisms strongly indicate that the above three features are surface expressions of an important structural boundary. The sharp bend in this boundary, which is concave toward the southwest, would tend to lock the dextral slip along the San Andreas fault and thus cause the regional north-south compression observed at Cape Mendocino. The above conclusions support the hypothesis that dextral strike-slip motion along the San Andreas fault is currently being taken up by slip along the Mendocino escarpment as well as by slip along northwest trending faults in the Gorda basin.

Control of rupture by fault geometry during the 1966 parkfield earthquake

1981 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allan G. Lindh ◽  
David M. Boore
Keyword(s):  
Main Shock ◽  
Fault Plane ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
P Wave ◽  
Fault Geometry ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Hill Station ◽  
Parkfield Earthquake

abstract A reanalysis of the available data for the 1966 Parkfield, California, earthquake (ML=512) suggests that although the ground breakage and aftershocks extended about 40 km along the San Andreas Fault, the initial dynamic rupture was only 20 to 25 km in length. The foreshocks and the point of initiation of the main event locate at a small bend in the mapped trace of the fault. Detailed analysis of the P-wave first motions from these events at the Gold Hill station, 20 km southeast, indicates that the bend in the fault extends to depth and apparently represents a physical discontinuity on the fault plane. Other evidence suggests that this discontinuity plays an important part in the recurrence of similar magnitude 5 to 6 earthquakes at Parkfield. Analysis of the strong-motion records suggests that the rupture stopped at another discontinuity in the fault plane, an en-echelon offset near Gold Hill that lies at the boundary on the San Andreas Fault between the zone of aseismic slip and the locked zone on which the great 1857 earthquake occurred. Foreshocks to the 1857 earthquake occurred in this area (Sieh, 1978), and the epicenter of the main shock may have coincided with the offset zone. If it did, a detailed study of the geological and geophysical character of the region might be rewarding in terms of understanding how and why great earthquakes initiate where they do.

Crustal structure southwest of the San Andreas fault from quarry blasts

1964 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-77
Author(s):  
Robert M. Hamilton ◽  
Alan Ryall ◽  
Eduard Berg
Keyword(s):  
San Francisco ◽  
Crustal Structure ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
P Wave ◽  
Geological Survey ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Crustal Model ◽  
Crystalline Crust ◽  
The U.S

abstract To determine a crustal model for the southwest side of the San Andreas fault, six large quarry blasts near Salinas, California, were recorded at 27 seismographic stations in the region around Salinas, and along a line northwest of the quarry toward San Francisco. Data from these explosions are compared with results of explosion-seismic studies carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey on a profile along the coast of California from San Francisco to Camp Roberts. The velocity of Pg, the P wave refracted through the crystalline crust, in the Salinas region is 6.2 km/sec and the velocity of Pn is about 8.0 km/sec. Velocities of the direct P wave in near-sur-face rocks vary from one place to another, and appear to correlate well with gross geologic features. The thickness of the crust in the region southwest of the San Andreas fault from Salinas to San Francisco is about 22 kilometers.

scholarly journals Meteorological noise in wire strainmeter data from Parkfield, California

1979 ◽  
Vol 69 (6) ◽  
pp. 1983-1988
Author(s):  
N. R. Goulty ◽  
P. M. Davis ◽  
R. Gilman ◽  
N. Motta
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Residual Strain ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Peak Amplitude ◽  
Wiener Filtering ◽  
Base Line ◽  
Signal Power ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Filtering Technique ◽  
Strain Signal

abstract Four invar-wire strainmeters have been operated in shallow trench sites for 19 months beside the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield, California. Temperature and rainfall records were correlated with 1 yr of strainmeter data, and 90 per cent of the strain signal power at periods between 2 and 120 days was predicted entirely from these records, using a multi-channel, Wiener filtering technique. The residual strain series fluctuates with a peak-to-peak amplitude of nearly 10−6 strain. Anomalous strain signals taking place over several days would have to be larger than this to be identifiable. Previous work shows that signals of amplitude 10−7 strain are identifiable if they take place within hours. Deep creep events giving rise to such signals, which may occur as precursors to earthquakes, would need to be very large. Other workers have shown that shallow, short-base line tiltmeters in California are also very sensitive to meteorological noise. Strainmeter and tiltmeter installations can be made less sensitive to meteorological noise, either by manufacturing instruments with long (∼1 km) base lines, or by using tunnel or borehole sites (≳100 m deep). Proven instruments of these types are costly, unless an underground site was already available. However, if networks of shallow, shortbase line strainmeters or tiltmeters are to be used for earthquake prediction, it is obviously desirable to invest in at least a few installations which are less sensitive to noise of meteorological origin.

scholarly journals Displacement on the San Andreas fault subsequent to the 1966 Parkfield earthquake

1968 ◽  
Vol 58 (6) ◽  
pp. 1955-1973
Author(s):  
Stewart W. Smith ◽  
Max Wyss
Keyword(s):  
Shear Stress ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Aftershock Activity ◽  
Fault Surface ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Parkfield Earthquake ◽  
Fault Displacement ◽  
Displacement Measurements

ABSTRACT Immediately following the 1966 Parkfield earthquake a continuing program of fault displacement measurements was undertaken, and several types of instruments were installed in the fault zone to monitor ground motion. In the year subsequent to the earthquake a maximum of at least 20 cm of displacement occurred on a 30 km section of the San Andreas fault, which far exceeded the surficial displacement at the time of the earthquake. The rate of displacement decreased logarithmically during this period in a manner similar to that of the decrease in aftershock activity. After the initial high rate of activity it could be seen that most of the displacement was occurring in 4–6 day epochs of rapid creep following local aftershocks. The variation of fault displacement along the surface trace was measured and shown to be consistent with a vertidal fault surface 44 km long and 14 km deep, along which a shear stress of 2.4 bars was relieved.

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