Localization of seismicity prior to large earthquakes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilya Zaliapin ◽  
Yehuda Ben-Zion
Keyword(s):  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Rock Damage ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
Background Seismicity ◽  
Seismogenic Faults ◽  
Parkfield Earthquake ◽  
Background Events ◽  
Large Earthquakes

<p>We present results aimed at understanding preparation processes of large earthquakes by tracking progressive localization of earthquake deformation with three complementary analyses: (i) estimated production of rock damage by background events, (ii) spatial localization of background seismicity within damaged areas, and (iii) progressive coalescence of individual earthquakes into clusters. Techniques (i) and (ii) employ declustered catalogs to avoid the occasional strong fluctuations associated with aftershock sequences, while technique (iii) examines developing clusters in entire catalog data. The different techniques provide information on different time scales and on the spatial extent of weakened damaged regions. The analyses reveal generation of earthquake-induced rock damage on a decadal timescale around eventual rupture zones, and progressive localization of background seismicity on a 2-3 yr timescale before several M > 7 earthquakes in southern and Baja California and M7.9 events in Alaska. This is followed by coalescence of earthquakes into growing clusters that precede the mainshocks. Corresponding analysis around the 2004 M6 Parkfield earthquake in the creeping section of the San Andreas fault shows contrasting tendencies to those associated with the large seismogenic faults. The results are consistent with observations from laboratory experiments and physics-based models with heterogeneous materials not dominated by a pre-existing failure zone. Continuing studies with these techniques, combined with analysis of geodetic data and insights from laboratory experiments and model simulations, may allow developing an integrated multi-signal procedure to estimate the approaching time and size of large earthquakes.</p>

Localization and coalescence of seismicity before large earthquakes

2020 ◽  
Vol 223 (1) ◽  
pp. 561-583 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yehuda Ben-Zion ◽  
Ilya Zaliapin
Keyword(s):  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Rock Damage ◽  
Fractional Area ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Main Shocks ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
Background Seismicity ◽  
Background Events ◽  
Large Earthquakes

SUMMARY We examine localization processes of low magnitude seismicity in relation to the occurrence of large earthquakes using three complementary analyses: (i) estimated production of rock damage by background events, (ii) evolving occupied fractional area of background seismicity and (iii) progressive coalescence of individual earthquakes into clusters. The different techniques provide information on different time scales and on the spatial extent of weakened damaged regions. Techniques (i) and (ii) use declustered catalogues to avoid the occasional strong fluctuations associated with aftershock sequences, while technique (iii) examines developing clusters in entire catalogue data. We analyse primarily earthquakes around large faults that are locked in the interseismic periods, and examine also as a contrasting example seismicity from the creeping Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault. Results of analysis (i) show that the M > 7 Landers 1992, Hector Mine 1999, El Mayor-Cucapah 2010 and Ridgecrest 2019 main shocks in Southern and Baja California were preceded in the previous decades by generation of rock damage around the eventual rupture zones. Analysis (ii) reveals localization (reduced fractional area) 2–3 yr before these main shocks and before the M > 7 Düzce 1999 earthquake in Turkey. Results with technique (iii) indicate that individual events tend to coalesce rapidly to clusters in the final 1–2 yr before the main shocks. Corresponding analyses of data from the Parkfield region show opposite delocalization patterns and decreasing clustering before the 2004 M6 earthquake. Continuing studies with these techniques, combined with analysis of geodetic data and insights from laboratory experiments and model simulations, might improve the ability to track preparation processes leading to large earthquakes.

scholarly journals Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited

1998 ◽  
Vol 88 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-130
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Michael ◽  
Lucile M. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Uniform Distribution ◽  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Background Seismicity ◽  
Parkfield Earthquake ◽  
The U.S

Abstract For a decade, the U.S. Geological Survey has used the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment scenario document to estimate the probability that earthquakes observed on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield will turn out to be foreshocks followed by the expected magnitude 6 mainshocks. During this time, we have learned much about the seismogenic process at Parkfield, about the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock, and about the estimation of these types of probabilities. The probabilities for potential foreshocks at Parkfield are reexamined and revised in light of these advances. As part of this process, we have confirmed both the rate of foreshocks before strike-slip earthquakes in the San Andreas physiographic province and the uniform distribution of foreshocks with magnitude proposed by earlier studies. Compared to the earlier assessment, these new estimates of the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock are lower, our estimate of the rate of background seismicity is higher, and we find that the assumption that foreshocks at Parkfield occur in a unique way is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. While the exact numbers vary depending on the assumptions that are made, the new alert probabilities are lower than previously estimated. Considering the various assumptions and the statistical uncertainties in the input parameters, we also compute a plausible range for the probabilities. The range is large, partly due to the extra knowledge that exists for the Parkfield segment, making us question the usefulness of these numbers.

scholarly journals Foreshocks and aftershocks of the great 1857 California earthquake

1999 ◽  
Vol 89 (4) ◽  
pp. 1109-1120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aron J. Meltzner ◽  
David J. Wald
Keyword(s):  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Significant Events ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
San Bernardino ◽  
Southern Half ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Grid Search Algorithm

Abstract The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults anywhere in the world, yet we know little about many aspects of its behavior before, during, and after large earthquakes. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1857 M 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake on the central and southern segments of the fault. We began by searching archived first-hand accounts from 1857 through 1862, by grouping felt reports temporally, and by assigning modified Mercalli intensities to each site. We then used a modified form of the grid-search algorithm of Bakun and Wentworth, derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes, to find the location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities for each of the largest events. The result confirms a conclusion of Sieh that at least two foreshocks (“dawn” and “sunrise”) located on or near the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault preceded the mainshock. We estimate their magnitudes to be M ≈ 6.1 and M ≈ 5.6, respectively. The aftershock rate was below average but within one standard deviation of the number of aftershocks expected based on statistics of modern southern California mainshock-aftershock sequences. The aftershocks included two significant events during the first eight days of the sequence, with magnitudes M ≈ 6.25 and M ≈ 6.7, near the southern half of the rupture; later aftershocks included a M ≈ 6 event near San Bernardino in December 1858 and a M ≈ 6.3 event near the Parkfield segment in April 1860. From earthquake logs at Fort Tejon, we conclude that the aftershock sequence lasted a minimum of 3.75 years.

scholarly journals A revised position for the primary strand of the Pleistocene-Holocene San Andreas fault in southern California

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (13) ◽  
pp. eaaz5691
Author(s):  
Kimberly Blisniuk ◽  
Katherine Scharer ◽  
Warren D. Sharp ◽  
Roland Burgmann ◽  
Colin Amos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Southern California ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Large Magnitude ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Dependent Probability

The San Andreas fault has the highest calculated time-dependent probability for large-magnitude earthquakes in southern California. However, where the fault is multistranded east of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, it has been uncertain which strand has the fastest slip rate and, therefore, which has the highest probability of a destructive earthquake. Reconstruction of offset Pleistocene-Holocene landforms dated using the uranium-thorium soil carbonate and beryllium-10 surface exposure techniques indicates slip rates of 24.1 ± 3 millimeter per year for the San Andreas fault, with 21.6 ± 2 and 2.5 ± 1 millimeters per year for the Mission Creek and Banning strands, respectively. These data establish the Mission Creek strand as the primary fault bounding the Pacific and North American plates at this latitude and imply that 6 to 9 meters of elastic strain has accumulated along the fault since the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake, highlighting the potential for large earthquakes along this strand.

Control of rupture by fault geometry during the 1966 parkfield earthquake

1981 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allan G. Lindh ◽  
David M. Boore
Keyword(s):  
Main Shock ◽  
Fault Plane ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
P Wave ◽  
Fault Geometry ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Hill Station ◽  
Parkfield Earthquake

abstract A reanalysis of the available data for the 1966 Parkfield, California, earthquake (ML=512) suggests that although the ground breakage and aftershocks extended about 40 km along the San Andreas Fault, the initial dynamic rupture was only 20 to 25 km in length. The foreshocks and the point of initiation of the main event locate at a small bend in the mapped trace of the fault. Detailed analysis of the P-wave first motions from these events at the Gold Hill station, 20 km southeast, indicates that the bend in the fault extends to depth and apparently represents a physical discontinuity on the fault plane. Other evidence suggests that this discontinuity plays an important part in the recurrence of similar magnitude 5 to 6 earthquakes at Parkfield. Analysis of the strong-motion records suggests that the rupture stopped at another discontinuity in the fault plane, an en-echelon offset near Gold Hill that lies at the boundary on the San Andreas Fault between the zone of aseismic slip and the locked zone on which the great 1857 earthquake occurred. Foreshocks to the 1857 earthquake occurred in this area (Sieh, 1978), and the epicenter of the main shock may have coincided with the offset zone. If it did, a detailed study of the geological and geophysical character of the region might be rewarding in terms of understanding how and why great earthquakes initiate where they do.

scholarly journals Displacement on the San Andreas fault subsequent to the 1966 Parkfield earthquake

1968 ◽  
Vol 58 (6) ◽  
pp. 1955-1973
Author(s):  
Stewart W. Smith ◽  
Max Wyss
Keyword(s):  
Shear Stress ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Aftershock Activity ◽  
Fault Surface ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Parkfield Earthquake ◽  
Fault Displacement ◽  
Displacement Measurements

ABSTRACT Immediately following the 1966 Parkfield earthquake a continuing program of fault displacement measurements was undertaken, and several types of instruments were installed in the fault zone to monitor ground motion. In the year subsequent to the earthquake a maximum of at least 20 cm of displacement occurred on a 30 km section of the San Andreas fault, which far exceeded the surficial displacement at the time of the earthquake. The rate of displacement decreased logarithmically during this period in a manner similar to that of the decrease in aftershock activity. After the initial high rate of activity it could be seen that most of the displacement was occurring in 4–6 day epochs of rapid creep following local aftershocks. The variation of fault displacement along the surface trace was measured and shown to be consistent with a vertidal fault surface 44 km long and 14 km deep, along which a shear stress of 2.4 bars was relieved.

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