Aftershock decay of three recent strong earthquakes in the Levant

1998 ◽  
Vol 88 (6) ◽  
pp. 1580-1587
Author(s):  
Nitzan Rabinowitz ◽  
David M. Steinberg
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flow ◽  
Gulf Of Aqaba ◽  
P Value ◽  
Aftershock Activity ◽  
P Values ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Omori’S Law ◽  
Southwest Coast ◽  
Slow Decay ◽  
Aftershock Sequences

Abstract Aftershock sequences are studied from three recent strong earthquakes in the Levant: the MW = 7.1 earthquake of 22 November 1995 and the ML = 5.8 earthquake of 3 August 1993, both in the Gulf of Aqaba, and the MW = 6.8 earthquake of 9 October 1996 off the southwest coast of Cyprus. The modified Omori's law provides a good fit to the decay of aftershock activity for both events. The two sequences from the Gulf of Aqaba have rather low p values (0.90 in 1993 and 0.75 in 1995), reflecting slow decay of the aftershock activity. This may be attributed to low heat flow close to the epicenters. For the Cyprus sequence, the p value is 1.09, similar to that of many other sequences around the globe.

scholarly journals Combining a Locally Restricted Anisotropic Spatial Kernel with an ETAS Incomplete Model for Better Forecasts of the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Grimm ◽  
Sebastian Hainzl ◽  
Martin Käser ◽  
Helmut Küchenhoff
Keyword(s):  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Aftershock Activity ◽  
Time Model ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Etas Model ◽  
Incomplete Model ◽  
Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Aftershock Sequences

Abstract Strong earthquakes cause aftershock sequences that are clustered in time according to a power decay law, and in space along their extended rupture, shaping a typically elongate pattern of aftershock locations. A widely used approach to model seismic clustering is the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, that shows three major biases: First, the conventional ETAS approach assumes isotropic spatial triggering, which stands in conflict with observations and geophysical arguments for strong earthquakes. Second, the spatial kernel has unlimited extent, allowing smaller events to exert disproportionate trigger potential over an unrealistically large area. Third, the ETAS model assumes complete event records and neglects inevitable short-term aftershock incompleteness as a consequence of overlapping coda waves. These three effects can substantially bias the parameter estimation and particularly lead to underestimated cluster sizes. In this article, we combine the approach of Grimm (2021), which introduced a generalized anisotropic and locally restricted spatial kernel, with the ETAS-Incomplete (ETASI) time model of Hainzl (2021), to define an ETASI space-time model with flexible spatial kernel that solves the abovementioned shortcomings. We apply different model versions to a triad of forecasting experiments of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, and evaluate the prediction quality with respect to cluster size, largest aftershock magnitude and spatial distribution. The new model provides the potential of more realistic simulations of on-going aftershock activity, e.g.~allowing better predictions of the probability and location of a strong, damaging aftershock, which might be beneficial for short term risk assessment and desaster response.

scholarly journals SAT0210 FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH TIME TO SEVERE LUPUS NEPHRITIS IN A COHORT OF COLOMBIAN PATIENTS

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1048.2-1048
Author(s):  
S. Herrera ◽  
J. C. Diaz-Coronado ◽  
D. Rojas-Gualdrón ◽  
L. Betancur-Vasquez ◽  
D. Gonzalez-Hurtado ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lupus Nephritis ◽  
Renal Involvement ◽  
Classification Criteria ◽  
P Value ◽  
Systemic Lupus ◽  
P Values ◽  
Interval Censored ◽  
Severe Lupus Nephritis ◽  
Age And Sex

Background:Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) clinical manifestations, and their severity, vary according to age, ethnicity and socioeconomic status. Both Hispanic and Afro-Americans have a higher incidence and more sever presentation when compared to Caucasian patients with SLEObjectives:To analyze clinical and immunological characteristics associated with time to severe renal involvement in patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematous in a Colombian cohort followed for one year, between January 2015 and December 2018Methods:Retrospective follow-up study based in clinical records. Patients with SLE diagnosis that fulfilled either 1987 American College of Rheumatology Classification Criteria for SLE or 2011 Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) classification criteria for SLE. We included patients with diagnosis of lupus nephritis according to Wallace and Dubois criteria. Patients who did not have at least two follow-up measurements or had a cause of nephritis other than lupus were excluded. The main outcome was defined as time from diagnosis to sever renal involvement defined as creatinine clearance ≤50 ml/min, 24-hour proteinuria ≥3.5 grams o end stage renal disease.We analyzed clinical and immunological characteristics. Descriptive statistical analyses of participant data during the first evaluation are reported as frequencies and percentages for categorical variables, and as medians and interquartile ranges (IQR) for quantitative variables. Age and sex adjusted survival functions and Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals and p-values were estimated using parametric Weibull models por interval-censored data. P values < 0.05 were considered statistically significantResults:548 patients were analyzed: 67 were left-censored as they presented renal involvement at entry, 6 were interval censored as outcome occurred between study visits, and 475 were right-censored as involvement was not registered during follow-up. 529 (96.5%) patients were female, median age at entry was 46 (IQR = 23) and median age to diagnosis was 29.5 (IQR = 20.6). 67% were mestizo, 13% Caucasian and 0.3% Afro-Colombian. Age and sex adjusted variables associated with time to severe lupus nephritis were high blood pressure HR = 3.5 (95%CI 2.2-5.6; p-value <0.001) and Anti-RO (per unit increase) HR = 1.002 (95%CI 1.001-1.004; p-value = 0.04). Figure 1 shows age and sex adjusted survival function.Conclusion:In our cohort the appearance of severe lupus nephritis occurs in less than 15% of patients at 10 years. Both high blood pressure and elevated anti-Ro titers were associated with a higher rate of onset in the presentation of severe lupus nephritis, as seen in some polymorphs of anti Ro.References:Disclosure of Interests:Sebastian Herrera Speakers bureau: academic conference, Juan camilo Diaz-Coronado: None declared, Diego Rojas-Gualdrón: None declared, Laura Betancur-Vasquez: None declared, Daniel Gonzalez-Hurtado: None declared, Juanita Gonzalez-Arango: None declared, laura Uribe-Arango: None declared, Maria Fernanda Saavedra Chacón: None declared, Jorge Lacouture-Fierro: None declared, Santiago Monsalve: None declared, Sebastian Guerra-Zarama: None declared, Juan david Lopez: None declared, Juan david Serna: None declared, Julian Barbosa: None declared, Ana Sierra: None declared, Deicy Hernandez-Parra: None declared, Ricardo Pineda.Tamayo: None declared

NO EVIDENCE, OR NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE?

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1996 ◽  
Vol 98 (6) ◽  
pp. A22-A22
Author(s):  
Student
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
P Value ◽  
P Values ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Absence Of Evidence

When we are told that "there's no evidence that A causes B," we should first ask whether absence of evidence means simply that there is no information at all. If there are data, we should look for quantification of the association rather than just a P value. Where risks are small, P values may well mislead: confidence intervals are likely to be wide, indicating considerable uncertainty.

Abstract MP11: Circulating Plasma Biomarkers Associated With Brain Arteriovenous Malformations

Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah E Wetzel-Strong ◽  
Shantel M Weinsheimer ◽  
Jeffrey Nelson ◽  
Ludmila Pawlikowska ◽  
Dewi Clark ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Testing ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Protein Profiling ◽  
P Value ◽  
P Values ◽  
Plasma Biomarkers ◽  
Standard Curve ◽  
Disease States ◽  
Heparin Plasma ◽  
Circulating Levels

Objective: Circulating plasma protein profiling may aid in the identification of cerebrovascular disease signatures. This study aimed to identify circulating angiogenic and inflammatory biomarkers that may serve as biomarkers to differentiate sporadic brain arteriovenous malformation (bAVM) patients from other conditions with brain AVMs, including hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia (HHT) patients. Methods: The Quantibody Human Angiogenesis Array 1000 (Raybiotech) is an ELISA multiplex panel that was used to assess the levels of 60 proteins related to angiogenesis and inflammation in heparin plasma samples from 13 sporadic unruptured bAVM patients (69% male, mean age 51 years) and 37 patients with HHT (40% male, mean age 47 years, n=19 (51%) with bAVM). The Quantibody Q-Analyzer tool was used to calculate biomarker concentrations based on the standard curve for each marker and log-transformed marker levels were evaluated for associations between disease states using a multivariable interval regression model adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity and collection site. Statistical significance was based on Bonferroni correction for multiple testing of 60 biomarkers (P< 8.3x10 - 4 ). Results: Circulating levels of two plasma proteins differed significantly between sporadic bAVM and HHT patients: PDGF-BB (P=2.6x10 -4 , PI= 3.37, 95% CI:1.76-6.46) and CCL5 (P=6.0x10 -6 , PI=3.50, 95% CI=2.04-6.03). When considering markers with a nominal p-value of less than 0.01, MMP1 and angiostatin levels also differed between patients with sporadic bAVM and HHT. Markers with nominal p-values less than 0.05 when comparing sporadic brain AVM and HHT patients also included angiostatin, IL2, VEGF, GRO, CXCL16, ITAC, and TGFB3. Among HHT patients, the circulating levels of UPAR and IL6 were elevated in patients with documented bAVMs when considering markers with nominal p-values less than 0.05. Conclusions: This study identified differential expression of two promising plasma biomarkers that differentiate sporadic bAVMs from patients with HHT. Furthermore, this study allowed us to evaluate markers that are associated with the presence of bAVMs in HHT patients, which may offer insight into mechanisms underlying bAVM pathophysiology.

scholarly journals Not p-Values, Said a Little Bit Differently

Econometrics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Startz
Keyword(s):  
P Value ◽  
P Values ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Practical Matter ◽  
The One

As a contribution toward the ongoing discussion about the use and mis-use of p-values, numerical examples are presented demonstrating that a p-value can, as a practical matter, give you a really different answer than the one that you want.

scholarly journals Dependences of the Omori and Gutenberg–Richter parameters

2019 ◽  
pp. 149-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. B. Smirnov ◽  
A. V. Ponomarev ◽  
S. A. Stanchits ◽  
M. G. Potanina ◽  
A. V. Patonin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Stress State ◽  
Axial Loading ◽  
B Value ◽  
Exponential Dependence ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Aftershock Activity ◽  
Uniform Compression ◽  
Effective Strength ◽  
Aftershock Sequences

Laboratory experiments on studying the aftershock regime are carried out with sandstone specimens under different axial loading and uniform compression and constant pore pressure. The aftershock sequences are modeled by the scenario of stepwise increasing axial loading of a specimen with strain control ensuring regular generation of aftershock sequences. The experiments are conducted on intact specimens and on the specimens with preliminarily formed shear macrofractures simulating natural faults. The experiments were conducted with multichannel recording of the acoustic emission (AE) signals which made it possible to locate the AE sources. Several types of the dependence of the acoustic activity relaxation parameters (parameters p and c of the modified Omori law and the Gutenberg–Richter b-value) on the level of acting stresses are revealed. The b-value decreases with the growth of axial stresses at all levels of uniform compression. In the case of fracture on the preexisting fault, the Omori relaxation parameter p increases with the growth of axial stresses whereas parameter c (the time delay before the onset of relaxation) decreases with the growth of axial stresses and increases with the rise of the level of uniform compression. In the case of a fracture of an undamaged specimen, parameter p remains unchanged as the axial stresses grow, whereas parameter c increases slightly. Parameter variations in the case of a complex stress state with both varying deviatoric (differential stresses) and spherical parts (effective pressure) of the stress tensor take on a unified form when expressed in terms of Coulomb stresses. It is hypothesized that the time delay of the aftershock activity relaxation is determined by the kinetics of fracture in accordance with the kinetic concept of strength in solids. This hypothesis is supported by exponential dependence of parameter c on stresses and on the effective strength of the medium revealed in the experiments. Under this hypothesis, the dependences of parameter c on the Coulomb stresses can be unified for different effective strength values with the use of Zhurkov’s formula for durability of materials. The obtained parameter estimates for the dependence of c on strength and stresses suggest that the c value is determined by the difference of the strength and the acting stresses, indicating how far the stress state of the medium is from the critical state corresponding to the ultimate strength.

scholarly journals Finite-sample genome-wide regression p-values (GWRPV) with a non-normally distributed phenotype

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Connor ◽  
Michael O’Neill
Keyword(s):  
Central Limit Theorem ◽  
Limit Theorem ◽  
Central Limit ◽  
Mixture Distribution ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
P Value ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
P Values ◽  
Genome Wide ◽  
Normally Distributed

AbstractThis paper derives the exact finite-sample p-value for univariate regression of a quantitative phenotype on individual genome markers, relying on a mixture distribution for the dependent variable. The p-value estimator conventionally used in existing genome-wide association study (GWAS) regressions assumes a normally-distributed dependent variable, or relies on a central limit theorem based approximation. The central limit theorem approximation is unreliable for GWAS regression p-values, and measured phenotypes often have markedly non-normal distributions. A normal mixture distribution better fits observed phenotypic variables, and we provide exact small-sample p-values for univariate GWAS regressions under this flexible distributional assumption. We illustrate the adjustment using a years-of-education phenotypic variable.

scholarly journals Bone Marrow and Peripheral Blood Cells Toxicity of a Single 2.0 Gy Cobalt60 Ionizing Radiation: An Animal Model

1970 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shittu Akeem ◽  
Olatunbosun Lukman ◽  
Khalil Eltahir ◽  
Olalere Fatai ◽  
Babatunde Abiola ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bone Marrow ◽  
Peripheral Blood ◽  
Blood Cells ◽  
Marrow Cell ◽  
P Value ◽  
Peripheral Blood Cells ◽  
P Values ◽  
Cell Parameters ◽  
Post Irradiation ◽  
Total Body

BACKGROUND: Bone marrow is extremely vulnerable to damage caused by radiation therapy. Hence, bone marrow suppression is an important side effect of radiotherapy. Effective use of radiotherapy is therefore compromised by radiation-related injuries.MATERIAL AND METHODS: Six Guinea-pigs were recruited for the study of which three were subjected to total body irradiation with Co60 while the other three served as controls. Bone marrow and peripheral blood samples were collected before and at days 9, 14 and 21, post irradiation. Manual and automated counts were performed for bone marrow nucleated cells and peripheral blood cells respectively.RESULTS: Declining bone marrow cellularity was evident immediately post irradiation. Mean ± SD of marrow cell counted per mm3 were 121,924±281, 87,603±772, 121,367±375 and122,750±1000 pre-irradiation and days 9, 14 and 21, postirradiation (p-values 0.10, 0.27 and 0.29 respectively). Significant drops in counts were noticed on day 9 post-irradiation for all red cell parameters (p-values <0.05), for Total White Blood Cell Count and Neutrophil count (p-values <0.05) and also on days 14 and 21 for Lymphocytes (p-values <0.05) and on day 21 for Eosinophil/Basophil/Monocytes (p-value <0.05). A significant drop in platelets counts was also noticed on day 9 (p-value <0.05) which significantly increased above pre-irradiation value on day 21.CONCLUSION: Total body irrradiation with Co60 significantly affects the bone marrow with maximum reductions in marrow nucleated cells and peripheral blood cells counts on day 9 post irradiation. 

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