scholarly journals An Econometrics Analysis of the Impact Exchange Rate on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 185-198
Author(s):  
Okosu Napoleon David
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
National Account ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The study interrogates the impact of exchange rate on the economic growth of Nigeria from 1981 to 2020 using quarterly time-series data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the World Bank National Account. The dependent variable in the model was Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), and the independent variables were Exchange Rate (EXCHR), inflation (INFL), Interest Rate (INTR), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Broad Money Supply (M2) and Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB). The methodology employed was the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which incorporates the Cointegration Bond test and Error-Correction Mechanism. The finding indicates that in the short run, EXCHR, CAB, M2 and FDI, had a positive impact on economic growth. The impact of EXCHR and CAB were significant on growth while that of M2 and FDI were insignificant to growth. However, INTR and INFL had a negative impact on economic growth with both variables being statistically significant. The bound test showed that there was a long-run relationship among the study variables, and the results from the long run reveal that the exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Inflation, Interest rate, FDI, Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB) and Broad Money Supply all have a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Based on the findings the study recommended that monetary authority should strictly monitor the operations of banks and other forex dealers with a view of ensuring unethical practices are adequately sanctioned to serve as a deterrent to others.

scholarly journals Current Account Balance in Emerging Asia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-25
Author(s):  
Kivanç Halil Ariç ◽  
Siok Kun Sek ◽  
Miguel Rocha de Sousa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Current Account

Abstract The current account balance is an important indicator which reveals information on a country’s economic situation such as investments, capital flows, and indebtedness. The main purpose of this study is to examine the current account balance conditions in emerging Asian countries. In this respect, the long-run and causality relationship between current account balance, economic growth, government expenditure, real interest rates, and foreign direct investment was examined. The panel data analysis was applied using the data dated 1986 to 2015. Our results revealed a causal effect from economic growth and government expenditure to current account balance mainly dependent on saving tendency.

scholarly journals The Reasons for Additional Growth Limit of Consumer Non-Purpose Loans in the Banking Sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (26) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dragan Jović
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Economic Point ◽  
Consumer Loans ◽  
Growth Limit ◽  
The Current Account

The growth in consumer non-purpose loans leads to the reduction in BiH current account balance and amplifies the current account deficit. According to regression models, the commercial loan has the same effect on the current account. However, in dynamic VAR models, a commercial loan has, either neutral influence on the current account balance, or contributes to its mild growth. A commercial loan is necessary for BiH economy, because the private sector is the main factor of the economic growth, while a consumer non-purpose loan generates mainly demand for import. When a credit growth is very low, the credit is economic and not free good and additional need for the direct regulation of credit appears, especially in countries with underdeveloped financial market. The share of private companies in the credit distribution is reduced and from the economic point of view, redistribution of loans can be made only at the expense of consumer loans. Additional growth limit on the consumer non-purpose loan, which is composed of 74.2% of total consumer loans, and 34.9% of all bank’s loans (10/2016), is one of the preconditions for the decrease of current account deficit, economic growth and economic development acceleration.

scholarly journals Analyzing Fiscal Balance Evolution for Developed and Emerging Countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 299-310
Author(s):  
Gheorghita Dinca ◽  
Marius Sorin Dinca ◽  
Catalina Popione
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Sustainable Fiscal Policy ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

The purpose of our paper is to analyze the main factors which influence fiscal balance’s evolution and thereby identify solutions for configuring a sustainable fiscal policy. We have selected as independent variables some of the main macroeconomic measures, respectively public debt, unemployment rate, economy openness degree, population, consumer goods’ price index, current account balance, direct foreign investments and economic growth rate. Our research method uses two econometric models applied on a sample of 22 countries, respectively 14 developed and 8 emergent. The first model is a multiple regression and studies the connection between the fiscal balance and selected independent variables, whereas the second one uses first order differences and introduces economic freedom as a dummy variable to catch the dynamic influences of selected measures upon fiscal result. The time interval considered was 1999-2013. The results generated using the two models revealed that public debt, current account balance and economic growth significantly influence the fiscal balance. As a consequence, the governments need to plan and implement a fiscal policy which resonates with economy priorities and the phase of the economic cycle, as well as ensure a proper management of the public debt, stimulate sustainable economic growth and employment.

scholarly journals Longing for economic growth without current account deficit: Chinese model

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 3927 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deniz Züngün
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Chinese Model ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Global Fluctuations ◽  
The Current Account

After 1978, China implemented some reforms and branched out to foreign countries. China, applying a strategy based on export and keeping its domestic currency, Yuan, in balance during this process, has increased its economic growth. However, current value increase in dollar and global fluctuations has also affected the growth in China. Considering the fact that growth and current account balance is one of the most important variables of a nation, it is an issue of concern how the decreasing economic growth rate of China in 2015, compared to previous years, will affect the current account balance. Thereby, this study examines the effect of Chinese growth, with the application of export based industry strategy, on the current account balance between the years of 2000-2015. As a result of the study, a bidirectional relation is determined with Granger Causality Test between economic growth and current account balance. During the Regression Analysis, it is ascertained that 1% of increase in economic growth will incur 0.32% of increase in current account.

scholarly journals Panel Data Analysis on Technology Transfer and Economic Growth: The Case of Eurasian Economies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuğçe Acar ◽  
İsmail Erkan Çelik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Technology Transfer ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Causality Test

Foreign Direct investments are interest to emerging countries as they may fuel growth. Countries compete with each other to attract new direct investment as they are permanent. This paper searches the relationship between technology transfer and economic growth in ten Eurasian countries via panel data analysis. For this purpose, gross domestic product, foreign direct investment, and current account balance are used as variables. The sample period is from 2000 to 2018. Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel causality test is used to because of heterogeneity The study provides evidence for a causal relationship from current account balances to GDP, and FDI to current account balance. Interestingly, the study provides evidence for no causal relationship from FDI to GDP but GDP levels affect FDI levels. Also, there is no found cointegration relationship between the variables.

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