Average annual real GDP growth rates of selected Latin American countries, 2000-15

Author(s):  
Tjeerd Menno Boonman

ABSTRACTThis article analyzes sovereign debt defaults in four Latin American countries—Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico—for the period 1870-2012. The impact of sovereign defaults on real GDP growth is generally short-lived, while the impact in terms of output losses is deep and lasts long. Defaults in the period 1972-2012 show a deep and long-lasting impact compared to defaults in earlier periods. Moreover, the length of the contraction that follows a default is associated with favourable international conditions in the run-up to a default, while the depth of the contraction is associated with an expansive domestic economy in the run-up to a default. The results fit with boom–bust theories and sudden stop models.


2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mihajlo Jakovljevic ◽  
Yuriy Timofeyev ◽  
Chhabi Lal Ranabhat ◽  
Paula Odete Fernandes ◽  
João Paulo Teixeira ◽  
...  

Subject Bolivia's economic outlook. Significance Bolivia continues to buck the trend in terms of Latin American growth rates, with official expectations for growth this year of 4.7%, somewhat more than in 2016. Inflation is expected to remain at modest levels of around 4%. As in previous years since the collapse of gas prices, domestic demand will be the motor of growth. Impacts Levels of public investment will remain far higher than in most Latin American countries. Exports should stabilise this year, albeit at rates well below those of the 'super-cycle' years. A new gas-supply contract will need to be negotiated with Brazil over the course of the next year.


Author(s):  
Guillermo Cruces ◽  
Gary S. Fields ◽  
David Jaume ◽  
Mariana Viollaz

The Latin American region exhibited an increase in gross domestic product per capita during the 2000s, an improvement in all employment and earnings indicators, and poverty and inequality reductions. On a country-by-country basis, all Latin American countries exhibited positive GDP per capita growth rates during the 2000s. Most countries experienced substantial improvements in labour market conditions over the period, Honduras being the only exception to this general pattern. Finally, the growth rates of most countries in the region were negatively affected by the international crisis of 2008, which also affected several labour market indicators in the worsening direction. Most labour market indicators had fully or partially recovered by 2012–13.


Subject GDP growth shows no sign of improving in the short-term. Significance In its most recent update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF lowered its forecast for Mexico's 2016 GDP growth to 2.4% from 2.6% foreseen in January. This figure compares well with other Latin American countries -- notably Brazil and Venezuela -- yet it marks the continuation of a trend of meagre expansion that has characterised President Enrique Pena Nieto's time in office despite his efforts to introduce economic reforms. Impacts Further reform to encourage greater flexibility in the labour market will be key to increasing small business productivity. Low growth and a lack of prospects for the young will feed into Mexico's rising crime rates. The lack of growth could become a severe problem for the government both directly and indirectly in the 2018 election.


Author(s):  
Mihajlo Jakovljevic ◽  
Yuriy Timofeyev ◽  
Chhabi Ranabhat ◽  
Paula Odete Fernandes ◽  
João Teixeira ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Accelerated globalization has substantially contributed to the rise of emerging markets worldwide. The G7 and Emerging Markets Seven (EM7) behaved in significantly different macroeconomic ways before, during, and after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Average real GDP growth rates remained substantially higher among the EM7, while unemployment rates changed their patterns after the crisis. Worldwide economic growth began to accelerate again, starting from year 2017. However, approximately one half of this growth is attributable to the EM7, while only a quarter to the G7 nations. This paper aims to analyse the association between the health spending and real GDP growth in the G7 and the EM7 countries.Results: In terms of GDP growth, the EM7 exhibited higher degree of resilience during the 2008 Global Crisis, compared to the G7. Unemployment in the G7 nations was rising significantly, compared to pre-recession levels, but, in the EM7, it remained traditionally high. In the G7, the austerity (measured as a percentage of GPD and in PPP basis) significantly decreased the public health expenditure, even so in than in the EM7. Out-of-pocket health expenditure grew at far more concerning pace in the EM7 compared to the G7 during the Crisis, exposing vulnerability of citizens and households living close to poverty line. Regression analysis demonstrated that, in the G7, real GDP growth had positive impact on out-of-pocket expenditure measured as a percentage of current health expenditure expressed as a percentage of GDP (CHE). In the EM7, it affected negatively CHE, CHE per capita in PPP in constant 2011 international USD, and out-of-pocket expenditure per capita in PPP international USD. Conclusion: The EM7 countries showed stronger endurance withstanding the consequences of the global economic crisis as compared to the G7 economies. Evidence of that were most visible in real growth rates and unemployment rates, before, during, and after the crisis. It influenced health spending patterns in both groups, although they tended to diverge instead of converging in several important areas.


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