Perfect Operational Solar Forecasts: A Scalable Strategy Toward Firm Power Generation

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Perez ◽  
Marc Perez ◽  
Marco Pierro ◽  
James Schlemmer ◽  
Sergey Kivalov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Firm Power

scholarly journals Feasibility study on HYSOL CSP

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Molten Salt ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Combined Cycle ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Firm Power

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants utilize thermal conversion of direct solar irradiation. A trough or tower configuration focuses solar radiation and heats up oil or molten salt that subsequently in high temperature heat exchangers generate steam for power generation. High temperature molten salt can be stored and the stored heat can thus increase the load factor and the usability for a CSP plant, e.g. to cover evening peak demand. In the HYSOL concept (HYbrid SOLar) such configuration is extended further to include a gas turbine fuelled by upgraded biogas or natural gas. The optimised integrated HYSOL concept, therefore, becomes a fully dispatchable (offering firm power) and fully renewable energy source (RES) based power supply alternative, offering CO2-free electricity in regions with sufficient solar resources. The economic feasibility of HYSOL configurations is addressed in this paper. The analysis is performed from a socio- and private- economic perspective. In the socio-economic analysis, the CO2 free HYSOL alternative is discussed relative to conventional reference firm power generation technologies. In particular the HYSOL performance relative to new power plants based on natural gas (NG) such as open cycle or combined cycle gas turbines (OCGT or CCGT) are in focus. In the corporate-economic analysis the focus is on the uncertain technical and economic parameters. The core of the analyses is based on the LCOE economic indicator. In the corporate economic analysis, NPV and IRR are furthermore used to assess the feasibility. The feasibility of renewable based HYSOL power plant configurations attuned to specific electricity consumption patterns in selected regions with promising solar energy potentials are discussed.

scholarly journals From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation: An Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration - A New York Case Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Perez ◽  
Marc Perez ◽  
Sergey Kivalov ◽  
James Schlemmer ◽  
John Dise ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
New York ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Firm Power ◽  
Solar Penetration

We introduce firm solar forecasts as a strategy to operate optimally overbuilt solar power plants in conjunction with optimally sized storage systems so as to make up for any power prediction errors, hence entirely remove load balancing uncertainty emanating from grid-connected solar fleets. A central part of this strategy is plant overbuilding that we term implicit storage. We show that strategy, while economically justifiable on its own account, is an effective entry step to least-cost ultra-high solar penetration where firm power generation will be a prerequisite. We demonstrate that in absence of an implicit storage strategy, ultra-high solar penetration would be vastly more expensive. Using the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) as a case study, we determine current and future cost of firm forecasts for a comprehensive set of scenarios in each ISO electrical region, comparing centralized vs. decentralized production and assessing load flexibility’s impact. We simulate the growth of the strategy from firm forecast to firm power generation. We conclude that ultra-high solar penetration enabled by the present strategy, whereby solar would firmly supply the entire NYISO load, could be achieved locally at electricity production costs comparable to current NYISO wholesale market prices.

scholarly journals From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 4489
Author(s):  
Richard Perez ◽  
Marc Perez ◽  
James Schlemmer ◽  
John Dise ◽  
Thomas E. Hoff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
New York ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Firm Power ◽  
Solar Penetration

We introduce firm solar forecasts as a strategy to operate optimally overbuilt solar power plants in conjunction with optimally sized storage systems so as to make up for any power prediction errors, and hence entirely remove load balancing uncertainty emanating from grid-connected solar fleets. A central part of this strategy is the plant overbuilding that we term implicit storage. We show that strategy, while economically justifiable on its own account, is an effective entry step to achieving least-cost ultra-high solar penetration where firm power generation will be a prerequisite. We demonstrate that in the absence of an implicit storage strategy, ultra-high solar penetration would be vastly more expensive. Using the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) as a case study, we determine current and future costs of firm forecasts for a comprehensive set of scenarios in each ISO electrical region, comparing centralized vs. decentralized production and assessing load flexibility’s impact. We simulate the growth of the strategy from firm forecast to firm power generation. We conclude that ultra-high solar penetration enabled by the present strategy, whereby solar would firmly supply the entire NYISO load, could be achieved locally at electricity production costs comparable to current NYISO wholesale market prices.

scholarly journals Upper Limit and Power Generation Loss of Water Supplement from Cascade Hydropower Stations to Downstream Under Lancang-Mekong Cooperation

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 2826
Author(s):  
Jiahui Deng ◽  
Yu Li ◽  
Wei Ding ◽  
Bingyao Zhang ◽  
Bo Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Optimization Problem ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Joint Optimization ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Cascade Hydropower Stations ◽  
Firm Power ◽  
Hydropower Stations

In cross-border water supplement cooperation, the supplement water discharged from upstream hydropower stations is the key to improving downstream benefits, but will lead to upstream power generation loss, so the upstream hydropower stations have to be aware of how much water they can offer and how much power they will lose to make the water supplement cooperation more reasonable. Therefore, this study puts forward a model to calculate the upper limit flow of water supplement of cascade hydropower stations under firm power constraints and water level constraints and proposes a new optimization method called the “collaborative-independent” joint optimization method to calculate the power generation loss under water supplement constraints. The results show that the upper limit flow will increase with the increase of annual inflow, and the uncertainty of the distribution of inflow in the year will also affect the upper limit flow: the larger the proportion of non-flood season inflow, the higher the upper limit flow. In normal and wet years, delaying water supplement time can significantly increase the upper limit flow by about 5% per month. Additionally, the “collaborative-independent” joint optimization method newly proposed in this paper can significantly improve the local optimization problem compared to the traditional optimization method. The power generation loss increases with the increase of water supplement flow, and delaying water supplement time can significantly reduce the power generation loss. The results of this paper can provide essential data support for future water resources cooperation negotiations in the Lancang-Mekong river basin to promote efficient and orderly water resources cooperation in the basin.

Power generation scheduling through use of generalised network flow programming

1991 ◽  
Vol 138 (1) ◽  
pp. 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.E. Rice ◽  
W.M. Grady ◽  
W.G. Lesso ◽  
A.H. Noyola ◽  
M.E. Connolly
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Network Flow ◽  
Generation Scheduling ◽  
Network Flow Programming

PADDY RESIDUE AS FEEDSTOCK IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION: REDEMPTION OF LIFE CYCLE EMISSIONS AND COST ANALYSIS

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (Number 1) ◽  
pp. 55-67
Author(s):  
Shafini M. Shafie ◽  
Zakirah Othman ◽  
N Hami
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Cost Analysis ◽  
Positive Feedback ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Economic Sector ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
Coal Fuel ◽  
Biomass Resources

Malaysia has an abundance of biomass resources that can be utilised for power generation. One of them is paddy residue. Paddy residue creates ahuge potential in the power generation sector. The consumption of paddy residue can help Malaysia become less dependent on conventional sources of energy, mitigate greenhouse gas(GHG) emission, offer positive feedback in the economic sector, and at the same time, provide thebest solution for waste management activities. The forecast datafor 20 years on electricity generation wasused to calculate the GHG emission and its saving when paddy residue is used for electricity generation. The government’scost saving was also identified when paddy residue substituted coal fuel in electricity generation.This paper can provide forecast information so that Malaysia is able to move forward to apply paddy residue as feedstock in energy supply. Hopefully, the data achieved can encourage stakeholder bodies in the implementation of paddy residue inelectricity generation since there is apositive impact towardscost and emission saving.

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