Monetary transmission mechanism (lending channel)

1998 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vratislav Izák
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Vector Autoregressions ◽  
Lending Channel ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Credit Structure

The Czech National Bank (CNB) has influenced the money market rates (Pribor) through repo rates effectively. The strong cointegration has been valid for the further step, too - the impact of Pribor rates on the interest rates of newly granted credits. <p>The expected negative correlation between interest rates on the one side end both investment and newly granted credits have been found, however, the results are not statistically significant. <p>Industrial production and credits in domestic currency into industry have not been cointegrated. The causality tests say that credits Granger cause industrial production with a time lag of 5 months. Another tool of vector autoregressions - variance decomposition reveals that in forecasting these two variables the variance is influenced by their own dynamics first of all. <p>More detailed analysis of the credit structure in industry in 1997 shows the increasing ratio of credits in foreign currencies for credits in CZK to avoid the impacts of tight domestic monetary policy.

scholarly journals MONETARY DISCRETION BY FISCAL MEANS: THE CASE OF BULGARIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Preslav Dimitrov ◽  
Ivan Todorov ◽  
Stoyan Tanchev ◽  
Petar Yurukov
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Liquidity Effect ◽  
Currency Board ◽  
Automatic Adjustment ◽  
Adjustment Mechanism ◽  
Study Results ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Reserve Ratio

The specific design of the Bulgarian currency board arrangement (CBA), which provides an opportunity for the Bulgarian government to conduct discretionary monetary policy by changes in the fiscal reserve, was analyzed. The impact of government deposit fluctuations on the dynamics of reserve money and interbank interest rates was investigated. The hypotheses of an automatic adjustment mechanism and a liquidity effect under the Bulgarian currency board arrangement were tested. The methodology employed was a vector autoregression, which included the following variables: MB – monetary base; BP – the balance of payments; GD – government deposit on the balance sheet of the Issue Department of the Bulgarian National Bank; MRR – minimum required reserve ratio of commercial banks. The target variable was MB. Monthly data for the period of January 1998 - December 2018 were used. The study results did not provide evidence of a statistically significant impact of changes in government deposit on reserve money and interbank interest rates. The hypotheses for the existence of an automatic adjustment mechanism and a liquidity effect did not find an empirical confirmation.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF THE HOUSING MARKET IN LITHUANIA

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 271-280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feliksas Ivanauskas ◽  
Rimantas Eidukevičius ◽  
Albinas Marčinskas ◽  
Birutė Galinienė
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The One ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Given ◽  
The Relationship

Cointegration and Granger causality tests were used for the statistical analyses of the housing market in Lithuania. The relationship between the cost of housing and afford‐ability on the one hand, and interest rates, GDP and average incomes on the other was not proven to exist using the given statistical methods. The period of increase in the cost of housing in Lithuania over the last five years is exceptional and difficult to explain using fundamental economic factors and their fluctuation trends alone. The cost of housing has made a clear departure from the economic (business) cycle; the economy has grown, however at a much slower rate than rising costs in the housing market. The reasons for this situation are record lows in interest rates, good conditions to gain financing, the liberalisation of financial markets, speculative attitudes in expectation of the introduction of the Euro, and a divide between the supply and demand of housing that is available. It should be noted that the evaluation of the influence of these factors on fluctuations in costs in the housing market is more hypothetical in nature. Santrauka Nekilnojamojo turto rinkos Lietuvoje statistinei analizei buvo naudojami kointegravimo ir Grangerio priežastingumo testai. Taikant esamus statistinius metodus nebuvo įrodyta, kad egzistavo ryšys tarp nekilnojamojo turto kainos ir įperkamumo, viena vertus, ir palūkanų normų, BVP bei vidutinių pajamų, kita vertus. Nekilnojamojo turto kainos Lietuvoje didėjimo per pastaruosius penketą metų laikotarpis yra išskirtinis ir sunkiai paaiškinamas remiantis vien pagrindiniais ekonominiais veiksniais ir jų svyravimų tendencijomis. Nekilnojamojo turto kaina aiškiai nukrypo nuo ekonomikos (verslo) ciklo; ekonomika išaugo, tačiau gerokai lėtesniu tempu nei augančios kainos nekilnojamojo turto rinkoje. Šios situacijos priežastys – rekordiškai mažos palūkanų normos, geros sąlygos gauti fi nansavimą, fi nansų rinkos liberalizavimas, spekuliaciniai požiūriai tikintis įsivesti eurą ir takoskyra tarp esamo nekilnojamojo turto pasiūlos ir paklausos. Pažymėtina, kad šių veiksnių įtakos kainų svyravimo nekilnojamojo turto rinkoje įvertinimas yra labiau hipotetinis.

scholarly journals The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro-Economy of Developed and Developing Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seabelo T. Nyawo ◽  
Roscoe Bertrum Van Wyk
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Structural Vars ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the effects of a US economic policy uncertainty shock on Indian macroeconomic variables with a number of Structural VARs. This study models the economic policy uncertainty index as constructed by Baker et al. (2013). The study also uses a set of macroeconomic variables for India such as inflation, industrial production and nominal interest rate. The objective of the study is to identify the potential impacts of economic policy uncertainty shocks from the US economy to the Indian economy. According to the SVARs, a one standard deviation shock to the US economic policy uncertainty leads to a statistically significant decline in the Indian industrial production of -0.294% and in the Indian inflation of -0.032%. India shows to be resistant to US policy uncertainty. Furthermore, the study finds that the contribution of the US economic policy uncertainty on the Indian macroeconomic variables is shown to be significantly larger than the one exerted by the Indian uncertainty shock. 

scholarly journals Bilateral Defaultable Financial Derivatives Pricing and Credit Valuation Adjustment

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Closed Form Solution ◽  
Financial Derivatives ◽  
Form Solution ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Derivatives Pricing ◽  
Default Time ◽  
Form Model ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

The one-side defaultable financial derivatives valuation problems have been studied extensively, but the valuation of bilateral derivatives with asymmetric credit qualities is still lacking convincing mechanism. This paper presents an analytical model for valuing derivatives subject to default by both counterparties. The default-free interest rates are modeled by the Market Models, while the default time is modeled by the reduced-form model as the first jump of a time-inhomogeneous Poisson process. All quantities modeled are market-observable. The closed-form solution gives us a better understanding of the impact of the credit asymmetry on swap value, credit value adjustment, swap rate and swap spread.

scholarly journals Bilateral Defaultable Financial Derivatives Pricing and Credit Valuation Adjustment

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Closed Form Solution ◽  
Financial Derivatives ◽  
Form Solution ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Derivatives Pricing ◽  
Default Time ◽  
Form Model ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

The one-side defaultable financial derivatives valuation problems have been studied extensively, but the valuation of bilateral derivatives with asymmetric credit qualities is still lacking convincing mechanism. This paper presents an analytical model for valuing derivatives subject to default by both counterparties. The default-free interest rates are modeled by the Market Models, while the default time is modeled by the reduced-form model as the first jump of a time-inhomogeneous Poisson process. All quantities modeled are market-observable. The closed-form solution gives us a better understanding of the impact of the credit asymmetry on swap value, credit value adjustment, swap rate and swap spread.

scholarly journals FEATURES OF INTEREST-BEARING MONETARY POLICY INSTRUMENTS OF THE CZECH NATIONAL BANK

2020 ◽  
pp. 127-133
Author(s):  
A. V. Berdyshev ◽  
N. S. Bobyr
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Exact Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Impact

The features of the economic development of the Czech Republic after the global financial crisis, the role of the Czech National Bank in the formation of macroeconomic policies, as well as the peculiarities of monetary regulation in the study period have been defined in the article. The main goal of the paper is to assess the impact of interest rates used by the Czech National Bank in the process of monetary regulation on the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators, which is considered as one of the necessary conditions for the effectiveness of the inflation targeting regime. By the results of the correlation analysis and Fisher’s exact test, it has been determined that the Czech National Bank could affect the main macroeconomic indicators based on the percentage of monetary policy instruments used.

scholarly journals Do Instabilities in National Macroeconomic Factors Contribute to Channeling Volatility Spillover from the Global to the Islamic Equity Market?

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-121
Author(s):  
Harjum Muharam ◽  
Najmudin Najmudin ◽  
Wisnu Mawardi ◽  
Erman Denny Arfinto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Central European ◽  
Production Growth ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic instabilities on returns volatility spillover that is transmitted from the global to the Islamic equity market. The economic factors examined are the exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate, and production growth. To achieve the purpose of the study, we utilize three analysis tools: a GARCH(p,q) model to derive values of volatility for all variables; an asymmetry dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) model to produce a measure of volatility spillover as the dependent variable; and a panel data regression technique to assess the causality significance of macroeconomic factors to volatility spillover. This study is the first which expands such approaches. We observe monthly data of world and Islamic market indices, exchange rates, consumer price indices, interest rates, and industrial production indices. The data, which range from May 2002 to February 2019, are taken from the world market, and twenty-three economies, which consist of fourteen developed and nine emerging markets that have Islamic stock indices. In several sections, we provide important additional analysis for five stock markets in Central European economies, which are compared to the others. The finding suggests that the presence of volatility spillover on the Islamic markets that originates from the global market is affected by the internal instabilities of macroeconomic factors, except for industrial production instability for developed markets, including Central European markets. An implication of the study is that regulators should anticipate and prevent adverse consequences of volatility spillover by arranging their internal economic policy to control inflation rates, interest rates, and industrial production growth, as well as exchange rate flexibility. Moreover, market practitioners should include both global market volatility and macroeconomic instabilities in their prediction to create minimum risk.

scholarly journals Size of Banks as a Factor Which Impacts the Efficiency of the Bank Lending Channel

e-Finanse ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filip Świtała ◽  
Iwona Kowalska ◽  
Karolina Malajkat
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Bank Lending Channel ◽  
Lending Channel ◽  
Lending Policy ◽  
Cooperative Banks ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn most economies the banking sector plays the major role in the financial system. Therefore, it is of great importance to analyse and understand the mechanism of transmission of monetary policy and its impact on the banking sector. One of the possible repercussions of changing the level of official interest rates is the ability to influence the size of bank lending, by means of the bank lending channel. The key aspect our research is a thorough understanding of the functioning of the bank lending channel, with the main goal of this study being an examination of the efficiency of monetary policy transmission through the bank lending channel depending on the size of banks in the sector. This paper examines the abovementioned relation using annual data from 1995-2015 by 1709 commercial and cooperative banks from 27 EU countries and analyzing them in various econometric models. The results indicate that there is a positive impact of a bank’s size on loan growth (defined as the bank size increases, the impact of changes in interest rates in the bank’s lending policy is getting smaller), however, interaction between the variables of size and the interest rate, was proved to be insignificant (in the group of all analysed banks, as well as in commercial and cooperative banks separately).

scholarly journals Assessment of the Influence of the National Bank of Ukraine Monetary Policy on Food Security of the State

2020 ◽  
pp. 45-51
Author(s):  
Donatello Caruso ◽  
◽  
Tetiana Lunkina ◽  
Alla Burkovska ◽  
Anna Burkovska ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Security System ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Integrated Food Security ◽  
The Impact

Food security is central to the state's economic security system and is an important component of its sovereignty. Attracting financial resources by agricultural producers on favorable terms has a direct impact on improving agricultural infrastructure, product quality management systems, modernization of means of production, etc., which contributes to food security in terms of its main components: food availability and food security. At the same time, cheaper consumer loans for the population can strengthen an equally important element of food security – the affordability of food. The object of the study is the processes of food security regulation of the country due to changes in the discount rate of the National Bank. The subject of the study is a set of theoretical, methodical and practical aspects of the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine and their impact on the formation of food security. The purpose of the article is a comprehensive analysis and assessment of the impact of monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine, which is recently reflected in lowering the discount rate on food security, which is expressed in the availability of credit resources to meet consumer demand and modernize agricultural enterprises. The analysis of the discount rate and interest rates for loans on different periods, which were given to the enterprises of Ukraine, was performed. The authors propose to improve the financial component of the integrated food security mechanism, which aims to ensure the use of economic levers and create conditions for attracting financial resources for the functioning of the food security system by forming a system of multi-channel financing.

scholarly journals The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro-Economy of Developed and Developing Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1(J)) ◽  
pp. 33-41
Author(s):  
Seabelo T. Nyawo ◽  
Roscoe Bertrum Van Wyk
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Structural Vars ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the effects of a US economic policy uncertainty shock on Indian macroeconomic variables with a number of Structural VARs. This study models the economic policy uncertainty index as constructed by Baker et al. (2013). The study also uses a set of macroeconomic variables for India such as inflation, industrial production and nominal interest rate. The objective of the study is to identify the potential impacts of economic policy uncertainty shocks from the US economy to the Indian economy. According to the SVARs, a one standard deviation shock to the US economic policy uncertainty leads to a statistically significant decline in the Indian industrial production of -0.294% and in the Indian inflation of -0.032%. India shows to be resistant to US policy uncertainty. Furthermore, the study finds that the contribution of the US economic policy uncertainty on the Indian macroeconomic variables is shown to be significantly larger than the one exerted by the Indian uncertainty shock. 

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