scholarly journals Do Instabilities in National Macroeconomic Factors Contribute to Channeling Volatility Spillover from the Global to the Islamic Equity Market?

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-121
Author(s):  
Harjum Muharam ◽  
Najmudin Najmudin ◽  
Wisnu Mawardi ◽  
Erman Denny Arfinto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Central European ◽  
Production Growth ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic instabilities on returns volatility spillover that is transmitted from the global to the Islamic equity market. The economic factors examined are the exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate, and production growth. To achieve the purpose of the study, we utilize three analysis tools: a GARCH(p,q) model to derive values of volatility for all variables; an asymmetry dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) model to produce a measure of volatility spillover as the dependent variable; and a panel data regression technique to assess the causality significance of macroeconomic factors to volatility spillover. This study is the first which expands such approaches. We observe monthly data of world and Islamic market indices, exchange rates, consumer price indices, interest rates, and industrial production indices. The data, which range from May 2002 to February 2019, are taken from the world market, and twenty-three economies, which consist of fourteen developed and nine emerging markets that have Islamic stock indices. In several sections, we provide important additional analysis for five stock markets in Central European economies, which are compared to the others. The finding suggests that the presence of volatility spillover on the Islamic markets that originates from the global market is affected by the internal instabilities of macroeconomic factors, except for industrial production instability for developed markets, including Central European markets. An implication of the study is that regulators should anticipate and prevent adverse consequences of volatility spillover by arranging their internal economic policy to control inflation rates, interest rates, and industrial production growth, as well as exchange rate flexibility. Moreover, market practitioners should include both global market volatility and macroeconomic instabilities in their prediction to create minimum risk.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS RELATES TO THE IMPACT FROM MACROECONOMIC FACTORS TO BANKING STOCK RETURNS WHICH MEDIATED BY PROFITABILITY

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 742-755
Author(s):  
Hedwigis Esti Riwayati ◽  
Muhammad Affid Diena
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Path Analysis ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Financial Reports ◽  
Good Investment ◽  
The Impact

This research aims to analyze the impact which caused by macroeconomic factors to stock returns which mediated by profitability. This research used purposive sampling method with BUKU IV Banks who Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange as sample in this research period. The data was taken from the quarterly financial reports of the sample banks and Bank Indonesia. The analysis technique that used in this research are panel data regression and used path analysis to reveal the impact which caused by intervening variable. The results found that interest rates had no significant impact towards stock returns, while the inflation rate and the rupiah exchange rate had a direct significant impact on stock returns. Path analysis found that interest rates, inflation rates and Rupiah exchange rate had no significant affect on stock returns which indirectly mediated by profitability. This research results are very useful as an information for investors and stakeholders to determine good investment decisions in the banking sector.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN PREDICTING INDONESIAN SHARIA STOCK INDEX

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 223
Author(s):  
Angga Khoerul Umam ◽  
Ririn Tri Ratnasari ◽  
Sri Herianingrum
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTThis study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables, namely the exchange rate, interest rates, industrial production index, SBIS and inflation on the Indonesian Islamic stock index. This study uses monthly data from May 2011 to December 2018. This research is a quantitative study that applies the Johansen Cointegration Test and Vector Error Correction Model to see the long-term impact and shock response on certain variables. The findings indicate the existence of short-term and long-term causality between macroeconomic variables and the Indonesian Islamic stock index. Especially in the long run, industrial production index and inflation have a significant effect on ISSI, while the exchange rate, interest rates and SBIS have no significant effect on ISSI. IRF results show that the response of each variable and stable at different times. The ISSI response experienced a positive shock that occurred in the industrial production index and inflation. On the other hand, the exchange rate, the Bungan rate and SBIS were responded negatively by ISSI.

scholarly journals SENSITIVITAS FAKTOR EKONOMI MAKRO DAN MIKRO DALAM MEMPREDIKSI VOLATILITAS HARGA SAHAM PERUSAHAAN SEKTOR INDUSTRI FOOD & BEVERAGES

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-100
Author(s):  
Abdul Kohar ◽  
Nurmala Ahmar ◽  
Suratno Suratno
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Stock Price Volatility ◽  
The Impact

The movement of macroeconomic factors can be used to predict the movement of the stock price, but different researchers are using different macroeconomic factors because there is still no consensus among them which macroeconomic factors that have an influence on stock prices. This study aimed to analyze and test the impact of macroeconomics factors which consisting of inflation, interest rates, exchange rate, and microeconomy factors, consisting of asset growth, growth earnings and sales growth to the volatility of stock prices on food and beverages companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange between 2011 and 2015 period. The study measure the sensitivity of inflation and interest rates and stock price volatility by regressing each variable with a share price which will produce the sensitivity value of each variable. A total of 66 samples are tested by using the classic assumption as the precondition for regression analysis techniques (multiple regressions). The results showed that inflation is partially affect the stock price volatility, Indonesia Interest Rate (SBI) is partially effect on stock price volatility, and exchange rate and microeconomics are partially no effect on stock price volatility.

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

Volatility integration of gold and crude oil prices with the interest rates in India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shailesh Rastogi ◽  
Adesh Doifode ◽  
Jagjeevan Kanoujiya ◽  
Satyendra Pratap Singh
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact

PurposeCrude oil, gold and interest rates are some of the key indicators of the health of domestic as well as global economy. The purpose of the study is to find the shock volatility and price volatility effects of gold and crude oil market on interest rates in India.Design/methodology/approachThis study finds the mutual and directional association of the volatility of gold, crude oil and interest rates in India. The bi-variate GARCH models (Diagonal VEC GARCH and BEKK GARCH) are applied on the sample data of gold price, crude oil price and yield (interest rate) gathered from November 30, 2015 to November 16, 2020 (weekly basis) to investigate the volatility association including the volatility spillover effect in the three markets.FindingsThe main findings of the study focus on having a long-term conditional correlation between gold and interest rates, but there is no evidence of volatility spillover from gold and crude oil on the interest rates. The findings of the study are of great importance especially to the policymakers, as they state that the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude oil do not adversely impact the interest rates in India. Therefore, the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude may generally impact the economy, but it has nothing to do with interest rate in particular. This implies that domestic and foreign investments in the country will not be affected by gold and crude oil that are largely driven by interest rates in the country.Practical implicationsGold and crude oil are two very important commodities that have their importance not only for domestic affairs but also for international business. They veritably influence the economy including forex exchange for any nation. In addition to this, the researchers believe the findings will provide insights to policymakers, stakeholders and investors.Originality/valueGold and crude oil undoubtedly influence the exchange rates but their impact on the interest rates in an economy is not definite and remains ambiguous owing to the mixed findings of the studies. The lack of studies related to the impact of gold and crude oil on the interest rates, despite them being essentials for the health of any economy is the main motivation of this study. This study is novel as it investigates the volatility impact of crude oil and gold on interest rates and contributes to the existing literature with its findings.

scholarly journals Investment Decision In Micro, Small And Medium Enterprises In Indonesia*

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Siti Aisyah Tri Rahayu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Debt Ratio ◽  
The Real ◽  
Internal Capital ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study are: First, to analyze is there any significant influence among debt ratio, internal capital, cash flow, inflation expectations and the expectations of rupiah exchange rate against the decisions of businessmen in the real sector to invest or not to invest; Second, to analyze the impact of the variables perception mortgage interest rates, perceptions of bank regulation, internal capital and cash flow on debt ratio of the real sector (leverage). Investment decision model is estimated using logit models. The results of regression estimates the overall good for business and risk analysis for financial risk shows that almost all explanatory variables in the equation are statistically significant. There are three variables have a positive influence on the investment decisions taken by the businesses i.e. the debt ratio, cash flow and exchange rate expectations.

Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, dan BI-Rate terhadap Harga Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-56
Author(s):  
Fifi Afiyanti Tripuspitorini
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Monthly Period

Islamic investment is experiencing an upward trend from year to year. Many investors are starting to look at Islamic stocks. One of the Islamic stocks in Indonesia is the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI). Investors must have many careful considerations to invest. One of the factors that may influence stock prices is macroeconomic factors. This study aims to determine how macroeconomic variables in the form of inflation, the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar, and Bank Indonesia interest rates can affect the ISSI stock price. This study uses a quantitative data approach. The data is obtained from the Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) in the monthly period January 2016 to December 2018.Meanwhile, data analysis used Partial Least Square (PLS) with the help of WarpPLS. The results showed that inflation and the rupiah exchange rate had no effect on the ISSI stock price. while the BI rate has a significant negative effect on the ISSI stock price.

Model kursu walutowego PLN/EUR. Aplikacja modelu Tobit-CVAR

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksander Welfe
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Theoretical Frameworks ◽  
Statistical Tools ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Market Factors ◽  
Actual Exchange ◽  
The Impact

Although there are numerous theoretical frameworks and statistical tools, while modelling exchange rates researchers usually focus on one of the factors that shape the actual exchange rate. In this chapter, we present a model that allows us to consider non-stationary variables. Apart from this, we are also able to examine separately the impact of fundamental macroeconomic factors and market factors on exchange rates. For exchange rate PLN/EUR, our results support economic hypotheses.

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