Land Use and Land Cover Change as an Indicator of Watershed Urban Development in the Kenyan Lake Victoria Basin
The socio-economic and ecological value of Lake Victoria is threatened by significant regional development and urbanization. This study analyzed spatial-temporal land use/land cover changes in the Kenyan Lake Victoria basin from 1978–2018 using Landsat 3, 4-5 and 8 imagery, with a view to identifying the extent and potential impacts of urbanization on the basin. Supervised image classification was undertaken following the Maximum Likelihood algorithm to generate land use/land cover maps at ten-year intervals. Results indicate that the basin is characterized by six main land use/land cover classes namely, agricultural land, water bodies, grasslands and vegetation, bare land, forests and built-up areas. Further, the results indicate that the basin has experienced net increases in built-up areas (+97.56%), forests (+17.30%) and agricultural land (+3.54%) over the last 40 years. During the same period, it experienced net losses in grassland and vegetation (-37.36%), bare land (-9.28%) and water bodies (-2.19%). Generally, the changing landscapes in the basin are characterized by conversion of natural environments to built-up environments and driven by human activities, urban populations and public policy decisions. The study therefore recommends the establishment of a land use system that creates a balance between the ecological realm and sustainable development.