Dynamics of Inflation, Economic Growth, Money Supply and Exchange Rate in India: Evidence from Multivariate Analysis

The problem of interaction between Russian currency appreciation and positive dynamics of macroeconomic indicators is studied. Main economic factors of ruble appreciation are analyzed. Consequences of the Russian Central Bank's policy directed to oppose ruble appreciation and problems in financial area due to the increase of money supply through the exchange market are considered. Influence of exchange rate appreciation on economic growth, inflation, export, import, capital flows are discussed. It is concluded that Russian ruble appreciation stimulates an increase in efficiency of the Russian economy.

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Investment Processes in the Russian Economy

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2004-6-4-27 ◽

2004 ◽

pp. 4-27 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

V. Lisin

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Money Supply ◽

Capital Flows ◽

Economic Factors ◽

Exchange Market ◽

Russian Economy ◽

Macroeconomic Indicators

The problem of interaction between Russian currency appreciation and positive dynamics of macroeconomic indicators is studied. Main economic factors of ruble appreciation are analyzed. Consequences of the Russian Central Bank's policy directed to oppose ruble appreciation and problems in financial area due to the increase of money supply through the exchange market are considered. Influence of exchange rate appreciation on economic growth, inflation, export, import, capital flows are discussed. It is concluded that Russian ruble appreciation stimulates an increase in efficiency of the Russian economy.

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EFECT OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS ON NIGERIAN ECONOMY

Annals of Spiru Haret University Economic Series ◽

10.26458/1814 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (1) ◽

pp. 105-122

Author(s):

Lawrence Olisaemeka UFOEZE ◽

Camilus OKUMA, N. ◽

Clem NWAKOBY ◽

Udoka Bernard Alajekwu

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Money Supply ◽

Significant Positive Effect ◽

Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽

Fixed Exchange Rate ◽

Oil Revenue ◽

Time Period ◽

Negative Effect ◽

Positive Effect

This study investigated the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigerian economy. The fixed and floating exchange eras were compared to know the exchange rate system in which the economy has fairly better. The time period covered was 1970 to 2012. The study employed the ordinary least square (OLS) multiple regression technique for the analysis. The coefficient of determination (R2), F-test, t-test, beta and Durbin-Watson were used in the interpretation of the results. The resulted revealed that about 85% of the changes in macroeconomic indicators are explained in the fixed exchange era. In the floating exchange era, 99% was explained while the whole periods has 73% explanatory power, hence the floating exchange era (1986 to date) is more effective in explaining economic trend in Nigeria. Also, exchange rate has significant positive effect on GDP during the fixed exchange rate era and negative effect the eras floating and all-time; inflation has insignificant negative effect on GDP during the fixed exchange era; significant effect in floating era and significant negative effect in the all-time period; money supply has insignificant negative effect GDP in fixed exchange era; and significant positive effect during the floating and all-time period; and oil revenue has significant positive effect on the GDP in all the exchange rate regimes (floating, fixed and all-time) in Nigeria. The study thus conclude that exchange rate movement is a good indicator for monitoring Nigerian economic growth. So far exchange rate has always been a key economic indicator for Nigeria. The floating exchange period has outperformed the fixed exchange rate in terms of contribution inflation, money supply and oil revenue to economic growth. This indicate that the floating exchange rate has been a better economic regime for sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. From the findings, it is evident that oil revenue has positive effect in Nigeria and has remained the mainstay of the economy. It is thus recommended among other things that a positive exchange rate stock should be monitored regularly, so as not to allow those that find exchange rate as an avenue of investment like banks and public carry out their business, which is more devastating to the economy.

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Capital Flows and Money Supply: The Degree of Sterilization in Pakistan

Sukkur IBA Journal of Management and Business ◽

10.30537/sijmb.v4i1.102 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 18

Author(s):

Hina Ali ◽

Sadia Sajjad

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Foreign Direct Investment ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Money Supply ◽

Capital Flows ◽

Direct Investment ◽

Price Index ◽

Descriptive Analysis ◽

Consumer Price Index ◽

Series Data

The present study proposes to analyze the impact of the capital flows on the economic growth. The change in the capital flows affects the money supply in the economy which in return influences the economic growth. The augmented dickey fuller test (ADF), descriptive Analysis, correlation method, and the auto regressive distribution lag are employed in this work. The ADF test is delved to examine the Stationarity of the variables and the correlation between them. The descriptive analysis is used to check the normality of the variable whether the variables is normally distributed or not. The survey bases on time series data ranging from the year 1974 to 2014. The variables as the gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate (ER), inflation (INF), consumer price index (CPI), money supply (M2), total reserves (TR) and the foreign direct investment (FDI), price indices (PI). The research findings are Foreign direct investment, Exchange rate, Inflation rate, Consumer Price Index has the positive impact on the GDP while the Private Investment, Total reserves, and Money supply have the negative impact on the GDP. The value of the R square is 0.99874 which is very good. It means that the 99 percent variations exist in dependent variable due to independent variables.

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An Econometrics Analysis of the Impact Exchange Rate on Economic Growth of Nigeria

African Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development ◽

10.52589/ajesd-ey7iwkd2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 185-198

Author(s):

Okosu Napoleon David

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Money Supply ◽

Current Account ◽

Series Data ◽

Current Account Balance ◽

National Account ◽

Long Run ◽

The Impact

The study interrogates the impact of exchange rate on the economic growth of Nigeria from 1981 to 2020 using quarterly time-series data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the World Bank National Account. The dependent variable in the model was Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), and the independent variables were Exchange Rate (EXCHR), inflation (INFL), Interest Rate (INTR), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Broad Money Supply (M2) and Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB). The methodology employed was the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which incorporates the Cointegration Bond test and Error-Correction Mechanism. The finding indicates that in the short run, EXCHR, CAB, M2 and FDI, had a positive impact on economic growth. The impact of EXCHR and CAB were significant on growth while that of M2 and FDI were insignificant to growth. However, INTR and INFL had a negative impact on economic growth with both variables being statistically significant. The bound test showed that there was a long-run relationship among the study variables, and the results from the long run reveal that the exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Inflation, Interest rate, FDI, Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB) and Broad Money Supply all have a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Based on the findings the study recommended that monetary authority should strictly monitor the operations of banks and other forex dealers with a view of ensuring unethical practices are adequately sanctioned to serve as a deterrent to others.

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Impact of inflation on economic growth: evidence from Nigeria

Investment Management and Financial Innovations ◽

10.21511/imfi.17(2).2020.01 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (2) ◽

pp. 1-13 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Anthony Olugbenga Adaramola ◽

Oluwabunmi Dada

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Money Supply ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Government Consumption ◽

Consumption Expenditures ◽

Distributed Lag

In an attempt to examine the influence of inflation on the growth prospects of the Nigerian economy, the study employs the autoregressive distributed lag on the selected variables, i.e. real gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, degree of economy`s openness, money supply, and government consumption expenditures for the period 1980–2018. The study findings indicate that inflation and real exchange rate exert a significant negative impact on economic growth, while interest rate and money supply indicate a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Other variables in the model depict no influence on the economic growth of Nigeria. The causality result shows the unidirectional relationships between interest rate, exchange rate, government consumption expenditures and gross domestic product. However, inflation and the degree of openness show no causal relationship with gross domestic product. As a result, the study recommends that a more pragmatic effort is needed by the monetary authorities to target the inflation vigorously to prevent its adverse effect by ensuring a tolerable rate that would stimulate the economic growth of Nigeria.

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The Nexus Between Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence Based on Bound Test Approach

Review of Applied Management and Social Sciences ◽

10.47067/ramss.v4i3.167 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 613-624

Author(s):

Mahmood Ul Hassan ◽

Hina Ali ◽

Saeed Ur Rahman ◽

Sabiha Parveen

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Money Supply ◽

Price Index ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Consumer Price Index ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Series Data ◽

Bound Test

The objective of this research is to examine the monetary policy's impact on economic growth. Variables of study are Gross domestic product, Inflation, rate of interest, Exchange rate, Money supply, Investment, and Consumer Price Index and time series data is collected from. Gross domestic product is a dependent variable and all other variables are independent and have a great effect on the explanatory variable. In this study, the Augmented dicky fuller test is used to check out the stationarity of our selected variables and after that autoregressive distributed lag model co-integration technique is applied to estimate the parameters of the model. The result shows that inflation, interest rate, and consumer price index show a negative impact on gross domestic product. While other variables such as exchange rate, money supply, and investment show a positive impact on GDP. The study recommended that the desired level of output and employment can be attained by adopting sufficient strategies that reduce inflation in the economy.

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The Effect of Some Economic Variables on Economic Growth in Indonesia Period 2010- 2017

International Journal of Engineering and Advanced Technology - Regular Issue ◽

10.35940/ijeat.a1364.109119 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 757-761

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Money Supply ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Economic Factors ◽

Regression Methods ◽

Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽

The World Bank ◽

Macro Variables

Exchange rate fluctuations are caused by interactions between economic factors and non-economic factors. The purpose of this study is to see the effect of the fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate on economic growth along with several macro variables in Indonesia. The analytical method used in this study is multiple regression methods, namely testing the hypothesis about the effect of rupiah exchange rate fluctuations (KURS), inflation (INF), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Indonesian bank certificate interest rate (SBI), and Money Supply (JUB ) to the Indonesian economy (GRDP). The data used in this study are secondary data taken from Bank Indonesia, the Central Bureau of Statistics, and the World Bank. The research method used is multiple linear regrelsi method using eviews application. The results of this study indicate the exchange rate, inflation and the money supply have a negative direction with economic growth while foreign investment (FDI) and interest rates on Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI) have a positive and significant direction towards economic growth in Indonesia.

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VARIABEL EKONOMI MONETER YANG MEMPENGARUHI PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN FINANCIAL INCLUSION BANK SYARIAH DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2010-2017

Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori dan Terapan ◽

10.20473/vol6iss20197pp1395-1409 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 (7) ◽

pp. 1395

Author(s):

Kholifatun Nahdliyah ◽

Atina Shofawati

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Money Supply ◽

Latent Variables ◽

Partial Least Square ◽

Financial Inclusion ◽

Series Data ◽

Research Approach ◽

Significant Positive Effect ◽

Positive Effect

This study aims to determine the effect of exchange rate and money supply on economic growth and financial inclusion in Bank Syariah Period 2010-2017. The sample used is saturated samples, ie all parts of Sharia Bank, including Sharia Commercial Bank and Sharia Business Unit which in the last year of 2017 amounted to 13 Sharia Commercial Banks and 21 Sharia Business Units, furthermore this research uses time series data analysis by analyzing data from year to year. The research approach used is quantitative approach using analysis technique PLS (Partial Least Square) with four latent variables namely exchange rate and money supply as exogenous variable, economic growth as endogen intervention variable, and financial inclusion as endogen variable. The results of this study indicate: the exchange rate has a significant negative effect on economic growth, the money supply has a significant positive effect on economic growth, economic growth has a significant positive effect on financial inclusion of Sharia Bank.Keywords: exchange rate, money supply, economic growth, and financial inclusion

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THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KUWAIT FOR THE PERIOD OF 1980-2020

Advanced International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance ◽

10.35631/aijbaf.39001 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 (9) ◽

pp. 01-14

Author(s):

Nor Asmat Ismail

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Monetary Policy ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Money Supply ◽

Price Index ◽

Consumer Price Index ◽

Policy Instruments ◽

Real Gdp ◽

The Government

The government of Kuwait has shifted its focus from the dependence on oil and has concentrated on applying a long-term strategic vision that seeks to recover the economy and raise the citizens’ standard of living. To accomplish these objectives, monetary policy should be formulated appropriately by the government. However, it seems that the effects of monetary policy instruments on the economic growth of Kuwait are not obvious. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to empirically explore the effect of monetary policy on Kuwaiti economic growth. This research uses annual time series data on real GDP, exchange rate, broad money supply (M2), consumer price index, and deposit interest rate over the period (1980 - 2020) and applies Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of the empirical analysis show the presence of a long-run relationship between real Gross Domestic Product and monetary policy instruments. Specifically, it finds that broad money supply (M2), deposit interest rate, and consumer price index affect economic growth positively and statistically significant. While the exchange rate affects real Gross Domestic Product negatively and statistically insignificant. The Granger causality test based on VECM shows two unidirectional causal relationships running from broad money supply and consumer price index to real GDP in the short run. Thus, the study suggests that policymakers concentrate on improving the economy by managing interest rates and maintain supporting environment for sustainable economic growth and development.

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