scholarly journals VARIABEL EKONOMI MONETER YANG MEMPENGARUHI PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN FINANCIAL INCLUSION BANK SYARIAH DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2010-2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (7) ◽  
pp. 1395
Author(s):  
Kholifatun Nahdliyah ◽  
Atina Shofawati
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Latent Variables ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to determine the effect of exchange rate and money supply on economic growth and financial inclusion in Bank Syariah Period 2010-2017. The sample used is saturated samples, ie all parts of Sharia Bank, including Sharia Commercial Bank and Sharia Business Unit which in the last year of 2017 amounted to 13 Sharia Commercial Banks and 21 Sharia Business Units, furthermore this research uses time series data analysis by analyzing data from year to year. The research approach used is quantitative approach using analysis technique PLS (Partial Least Square) with four latent variables namely exchange rate and money supply as exogenous variable, economic growth as endogen intervention variable, and financial inclusion as endogen variable. The results of this study indicate: the exchange rate has a significant negative effect on economic growth, the money supply has a significant positive effect on economic growth, economic growth has a significant positive effect on financial inclusion of Sharia Bank.Keywords: exchange rate, money supply, economic growth, and financial inclusion

scholarly journals EFECT OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS ON NIGERIAN ECONOMY

10.26458/1814 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-122
Author(s):  
Lawrence Olisaemeka UFOEZE ◽  
Camilus OKUMA, N. ◽  
Clem NWAKOBY ◽  
Udoka Bernard Alajekwu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Fixed Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

This study investigated the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigerian economy. The fixed and floating exchange eras were compared to know the exchange rate system in which the economy has fairly better. The time period covered was 1970 to 2012. The study employed the ordinary least square (OLS) multiple regression technique for the analysis. The coefficient of determination (R2), F-test, t-test, beta and Durbin-Watson were used in the interpretation of the results. The resulted revealed that about 85% of the changes in macroeconomic indicators are explained in the fixed exchange era. In the floating exchange era, 99% was explained while the whole periods has 73% explanatory power, hence the floating exchange era (1986 to date) is more effective in explaining economic trend in Nigeria. Also, exchange rate has significant positive effect on GDP during the fixed exchange rate era and negative effect the eras floating and all-time; inflation has insignificant negative effect on GDP during the fixed exchange era; significant effect in floating era and significant negative effect in the all-time period; money supply has insignificant negative effect GDP in fixed exchange era; and significant positive effect during the floating and all-time period; and oil revenue has significant positive effect on the GDP in all the exchange rate regimes (floating, fixed and all-time) in Nigeria.  The study thus conclude that exchange rate movement is a good indicator for monitoring Nigerian economic growth. So far exchange rate has always been a key economic indicator for Nigeria. The floating exchange period has outperformed the fixed exchange rate in terms of contribution inflation, money supply and oil revenue to economic growth. This indicate that the floating exchange rate has been a better economic regime for sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. From the findings, it is evident that oil revenue has positive effect in Nigeria and has remained the mainstay of the economy. It is thus recommended among other things that a positive exchange rate stock should be monitored regularly, so as not to allow those that find exchange rate as an avenue of investment like banks and public carry out their business, which is more devastating to the economy. 

scholarly journals EFFECT OF MONETARY POLICY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

10.26458/1815 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence Olisaemeka UFOEZE ◽  
J. C ODIMGBE ◽  
V. N. EZEABALISI ◽  
Udoka Bernard ALAJEKWU
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy ◽  
Positive Effect

The study investigated effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria. The natural log of the GDP was used as the dependent variables against the explanatory monetary policy variables: monetary policy rate, money supply, exchange rate, lending rate and investment. The time series data is the market controlled period covering 1986 to 2016. The study adopted an Ordinary Least Squared technique and also conducted the unit root and co-integration tests. The study showed that long run relationship exists among the variables. Also, the core finding of this study showed that monetary policy rate, interest rate, and investment have insignificant positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Money supply however has significant positive effect on growth in Nigeria. Exchange rate has significant negative effect on GDP in Nigeria. Money supply and investment granger cause economic growth, while economic growth causes interest rate in Nigeria. On the overall, monetary policy explain 98% of the changes in economic growth in Nigeria. Thus, the study concluded that monetary policy can be effectively used to control Nigerian economy and thus a veritable tool for price stability and improve output.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH GONCANGAN FAKTOR EKSTERNAL TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Monica Wulandari ◽  
Hasdi Aimon ◽  
Mike Triani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Positive Effect

The purpose of this research is to see how far the influence of external factors toward the economic growth in Indonesia and also to see any external factors that can decreasing economic growth in short and long term. The method is used in this research is Ordinary Least Square with use Error Correction Model (ECM) test and Cointegration. Based on analysis data was obtained three conclusions were; The first is based on the results of multiple regression, foreign investment and world oil prices and a significant positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia, while the exchange rate and foreign debt and no significant positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia at the 5% significance level. The second is in the short term through the Error Correction Model (ECM) test, the world oil price and foreign direct investment to boost economic growth while exchange rate USD / $ (NTR) and External Debt (ED) can shocks the economic growth in Indonesia. The third is in the long term through cointegration test, the variables included in the model and no significant negative effect on economic growth

scholarly journals Capital Flows and Money Supply: The Degree of Sterilization in Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Hina Ali ◽  
Sadia Sajjad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data

The present study proposes to analyze the impact of the capital flows on the economic growth. The change in the capital flows affects the money supply in the economy which in return influences the economic growth. The augmented dickey fuller test (ADF), descriptive Analysis, correlation method, and the auto regressive distribution lag are employed in this work. The ADF test is delved to examine the Stationarity of the variables and the correlation between them. The descriptive analysis is used to check the normality of the variable whether the variables is normally distributed or not. The survey bases on time series data ranging from the year 1974 to 2014. The variables as the gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate (ER), inflation (INF), consumer price index (CPI), money supply (M2), total reserves (TR) and the foreign direct investment (FDI), price indices (PI). The research findings are Foreign direct investment, Exchange rate, Inflation rate, Consumer Price Index has the positive impact on the GDP while the Private Investment, Total reserves, and Money supply have the negative impact on the GDP. The value of the R square is 0.99874 which is very good. It means that the 99 percent variations exist in dependent variable due to independent variables. 

scholarly journals An Econometrics Analysis of the Impact Exchange Rate on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 185-198
Author(s):  
Okosu Napoleon David
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
National Account ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The study interrogates the impact of exchange rate on the economic growth of Nigeria from 1981 to 2020 using quarterly time-series data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the World Bank National Account. The dependent variable in the model was Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), and the independent variables were Exchange Rate (EXCHR), inflation (INFL), Interest Rate (INTR), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Broad Money Supply (M2) and Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB). The methodology employed was the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which incorporates the Cointegration Bond test and Error-Correction Mechanism. The finding indicates that in the short run, EXCHR, CAB, M2 and FDI, had a positive impact on economic growth. The impact of EXCHR and CAB were significant on growth while that of M2 and FDI were insignificant to growth. However, INTR and INFL had a negative impact on economic growth with both variables being statistically significant. The bound test showed that there was a long-run relationship among the study variables, and the results from the long run reveal that the exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Inflation, Interest rate, FDI, Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB) and Broad Money Supply all have a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Based on the findings the study recommended that monetary authority should strictly monitor the operations of banks and other forex dealers with a view of ensuring unethical practices are adequately sanctioned to serve as a deterrent to others.

scholarly journals The Nexus Between Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence Based on Bound Test Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 613-624
Author(s):  
Mahmood Ul Hassan ◽  
Hina Ali ◽  
Saeed Ur Rahman ◽  
Sabiha Parveen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bound Test

The objective of this research is to examine the monetary policy's impact on economic growth. Variables of study are Gross domestic product, Inflation, rate of interest, Exchange rate, Money supply, Investment, and Consumer Price Index and time series data is collected from. Gross domestic product is a dependent variable and all other variables are independent and have a great effect on the explanatory variable. In this study, the Augmented dicky fuller test is used to check out the stationarity of our selected variables and after that autoregressive distributed lag model co-integration technique is applied to estimate the parameters of the model. The result shows that inflation, interest rate, and consumer price index show a negative impact on gross domestic product. While other variables such as exchange rate, money supply, and investment show a positive impact on GDP. The study recommended that the desired level of output and employment can be attained by adopting sufficient strategies that reduce inflation in the economy.

Terms of trade and economic growth in developing country

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Abdul Waheed ◽  
Aamir Hussain Siddiqui
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Positive Effect

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the first time ever the effects of overall terms of trade, bilateral terms of trade and main commodity groups’ terms of trade on economic growth. Design/methodology/approach Augmented Dickey Duller and Philips Perron unit root tests and Johensan cointegration test have been applied by using annual time series data from 1974 to 2017. Dynamic ordinary least square and fully modified ordinary least square have also been used to perform sensitivity analysis. Findings The cointegration test confirm the positive long-run relationship between overall terms of trade (ToT) and economic growth. Country-wise results show that ToT with Australia, Bangladesh, Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, UK and the USA have significant positive effect on economic growth. Conversely, ToT with China and UAE has significant negative effect on economic growth. In contrast, ToT with India, Norway, Saudi Arabia and Switzerland has insignificant effect on the economic growth of Pakistan. Product-wise results indicate that the product group namely, Chemical, Crude Material inedible except fuels, Manufactured and Minerals fuels and Lubricant found to be a significant positive effect on economic growth. However, Beverages and Tobacco, and Machinery and Transport product groups found to be significant negative impact on economic, while Food and Live animals found to be insignificant. Practical implications In general, it is suggested that the beneficial terms of trade are favorable for economic growth. The study suggested export promotion policy for which relationship between ToT and economic growth found positive and import substitution policy is suggested the products found a negative relationship between the said variables. Originality/value This paper is a pioneer attempt to investigate the effect of overall ToT, bilateral terms of trade and the main commodity group’s ToT on economic growth in Pakistan.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI, INFLASI, DAN SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP KREDIT MACET DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Abd. Rizal ◽  
T. Zulham ◽  
Asmawati Asmawati
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Repo Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract This study aimed to analyze the effect of Macroeconomic variables in the form of Economic Growth, Inflation and interest rate of Bank Indonesia (7-Day Repo rate) on Non Performing Loans (NPL) in Indonesia. This study uses annual time series data from 2000 to 2017 with a total sample of 18 years. The model used is Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) using Eviews 9. Software The results show that in the short run Inflation has a negative effect on Non Performing Loans (NPL) and Inflation in the previous year  (Lag-1) has a significant positive effect whereas in the long run Inflation has a negative effect, maintained inflation at a reasonable limit to foster a good climate for entrepreneurs to be a stimulus so that they are able to fulfill their obligations, in the long run Economic growth has a significant negative effect and interest rates have a significant positive effect. It is hoped that the government can be more careful in setting the 7-Day Repo rate, given the positive response shown to Non Performing Loans (NPL). In addition, the government must also be able to maintain sustainable economic growth given its negative relationship to Non Performing Loans (NPL). It is recommended for further researchers to add other variables such as stock index, exchange rate, Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) and Charge-off policy (PH) of non-performing loans.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia, Nilai Tukar dan Inflasi terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 474-483
Author(s):  
Yaenal Arifin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Output ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

Harga minyak dunia dan nilai tukar merupakan variabel - variabel yang diserahkan dalam mekanisme pasar internasional. Guncangan pada keduanya dapat berdampak pada stabilitas perekonomian domestik. Kinerja perekonomian salah satunya dapat diukur dari laju pertumbuhan ouput riil negara tersebut. Harga minyak dan nilai tukar dapat secara langsung mempengaruhi tingkat ouput riil suatu negara maupun secara tidak langsung yaitu melalui jalur inflasi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh harga minyak dunia dan nilai tukar terhdap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melalui mediasi inflasi. Metode analisis yang adalah analisis jalur (path analyze) dengan menggunakan data time series kuartal selama tahun 2005-2014. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan; secara parsial, harga minyak dunia berpengaruh positif (signifikan) dan nilai tukar berpengaruh positif (tidak signifikan) terhadap inflasi. Secara parsial harga minyak dunia berpengaruh positif (signifikan) , nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif (signifikan) dan inflasi  berpengaruh positif (signifikan) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Inflasi dalam penelitian ini hanya memediasi pengaruh harga minyak dunia terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. World Oil prices and exchange rate are variables which controled by international market mechanism. Shocks on both can have an impact on the stability of the domestic economy. The economic performance measured in real output growth. Oil price and exchange rate directly affect a country's of real output growth  and indirectly is through inflation. This study aims to determine the impact of oil price shock and exchange rate volatility on Indonesia’s economic growth through inflation mediation. The method of analysis are using path analyze with quarterly time series data during the years 2005-2014. The result showed : partially, the oil price positively (significant) and positive  exchange rate effect (not significant)  on the inflation. Partially, world oil prices has a positive effect (significant), the exchange rate has a negative effect (significant) and the inflation has a positive effect (significant) to the economic growth. Inflation in this research just has a mediation the effect of world oil price to the economic growth.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR (M1), SUKU BUNGA SBI, NILAI TUKAR SUKU BUNGA DEPOSITO TERHADAP TINGKAT INFLASI

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Fadli Ferdiansyah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Significant Negative Effect ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

<p>Inflation is one of the effects of a prolonged economic crisis that hit the country. Inflation is a situation where there is an increase in general prices which continuesover the  long term. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the money supply, interrst rate, deposit interest rate and exchange rate (Rp/USD) of the inflation in 2006 – 2011.6 The result of this study suges that the suppy of money have no significant positive effect on inflation. SBI rate have positive and significant effect on inflation. Deposit have rate and no significant negative effect on inflation. Exchange Rate have no significant negative effect on inflation.</p><p>Keywords : Money Supply, Interest Rates, Deposit Interest Rates, Exchange Rate    (IDR /USD), Multiple  Linear Regression, Inflation</p>

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