scholarly journals Do Fiscal Rules Constrain Fiscal Policy in Romania?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alina Daniela Vodă ◽  
Gabriela Dobrotă ◽  
Loredana Andreea Cristea ◽  
Bianca Ciocanea
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
National Level ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Economic Life ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Causality Test

At both macroeconomic and national level, in recent decades, European tax policies have shown a particular interest in addressing the spectrum of risk issues in terms of maturing the business environment and the lack of sustainable development of the economy. In Romania there has been a significant increase in public debt, which is increasingly threatening fiscal sustainability. This is due to fiscal rules that restrict the applicability of fiscal policy to balancing the national economy. However, fiscal policy did not act in the direction of economic recovery during the crisis that started in the last quarter of 2008, which had a negative impact on the Romanian business environment. Objectively, fiscal policy should manifest itself as a general framework of the economy on the basis of which to develop fiscal rules that act in the direction of sustainable development of the business environment and implicitly, of socio-economic life. The research carried out referred to identify how fiscal rules in Romania restrict the application of fiscal policy as well as whether there is an explicit concordance between them. The research methodology aimed to use the ARDL model to apply the Granger causality test, using quarterly data for a set of four indicators, being identified that Romanian fiscal rules restrict fiscal policy. The achieved results highlighted the fact that fiscal rules restrict fiscal policy, being identified a long-run relationship between the analyzed variables and implicitly, a state of instability of the fiscal system in Romania. Keywords: fiscal policy, autoregressive distributed-lagged model, Granger causality test.

scholarly journals Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and Price Volatility: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-70
Author(s):  
Le Thanh Tung
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Vietnam is an Asian emerging country, which now is ranked in the group of the fastest-gro- wing economies worldwide. However, this economy has faced galloping inflation in recent years. So the Vietnamese experience is a valuable reference for the policymakers in the developing world in order to successfully control price volatility. Our study applies the Vector autoregressive method, the Johansen cointegration test, and the Granger causality test to examine the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on price volatility in Vietnam with a quarterly data sample collected over the period from 2004 to 2018. The study results confirm the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between these policies and price volatility in Vietnam. Besides, the variance decomposition and impulse response function also show that the impact of these policies on inflation is clear, however, the fiscal policy more strongly affects inflation than the monetary policy. Finally, the Granger causality test also indicates one-way causality relationships from the government expenditure as well as the exchange rate to price volatility in the study period.

scholarly journals Coordination or Dominance of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Egypt

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Emad Omar Elhendawy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Third ◽  
Relationship Of

This study investigates to what extent of coordination between the fiscal and monetary policies in Egypt in the period 1980-2017, it has been adopted in its methodology on the vector error correction and Granger causality test. It concludes that there is a significant relation between money supply and budget deficit on one hand and inflation on the other hand, and that fiscal policy is dominant in monetary policy, as a change of 10% of the budget deficit results in an increase in the inflation rate of 8.1%. As for the Granger causality test. Thus stresses the existence of causal relationship to one direction of inflation against both the budget deficit and the money supply, which affects the budget deficit in the second slowdown. Then it feeds the budget deficit and inflation in the third year, which in turn feeds the budget deficit in the fourth year and the causal relationship between inflation and money supply has concluded that there is a one-way causal relationship of money supply to inflation after four slows and then inflation affects the money supply from the fifth to the tenth slowdown. As for the relationship of the budget deficit to money supply, there may be a one-way causal relationship between the budget deficit and the money supply from the second to the tenth year, except the third year, which also confirms the dominance of fiscal policy on monetary policy in Egypt in the period under consideration.

scholarly journals Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and Price Volatility: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Thanh Tung
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Vietnam is an Asian emerging country, which now is ranked in the group of the fastest-gro-wing economies worldwide. However, this economy has faced galloping inflation in recent years. So the Vietnamese experience is a valuable reference for the policymakers in the developing world in order to successfully control price volatility. Our study applies the Vector autoregressive method, the Johansen cointegration test, and the Granger causality test to examine the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on price volatility in Vietnam with a quarterly data sample collected over the period from 2004 to 2018. The study results confirm the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between these policies and price volatility in Vietnam. Besides, the variance decomposition and impulse response function also show that the impact of these policies on inflation is clear, however, the fiscal policy more strongly affects inflation than the monetary policy. Finally, the Granger causality test also indicates one-way causality relationships from the government expenditure as well as the exchange rate to price volatility in the study period.

scholarly journals Uncertainty Due to Infectious Diseases and Stock–Bond Correlation

Econometrics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Gkillas ◽  
Christoforos Konstantatos ◽  
Costas Siriopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Non Linear

We study the non-linear causal relation between uncertainty-due-to-infectious-diseases and stock–bond correlation. To this end, we use high-frequency 1-min data to compute daily realized measures of correlation and jumps, and then, we employ a nonlinear Granger causality test with the use of artificial neural networks so as to investigate the predictability of this type of uncertainty on realized stock–bond correlation and jumps. Our findings reveal that uncertainty-due-to-infectious-diseases has significant predictive value on the changes of the stock–bond relation.

scholarly journals R&D Investment, Financial and Environmental Performance Nexuses via Bootstrap Fourier Quantiles Granger Causality Test

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Feng-Li Lin
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Environmental Performance ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
D Investment

This study investigated the relationship between R&D investments and financial and environmental performance. The direction, size, and significance of various phases of these variables were generated using the bootstrap Fourier quantiles Granger causality test. In our results, a positive relationship between R&D investment and CO2 emission reductions was found at two tails of quantiles. Additionally, we observed a significantly positive relationship between financial performance and CO2 emission reductions at the 0.5 quantile and above. The correlation between R&D investment and financial performance was identified to be positive under the 0.3, 0.4, 0.5 and 0.9 quantiles and negative under the 0.5 and 0.6 quantiles. The changing linkages among R&D investment, environmental performance and financial performance found in this study provide important information for policy makers, aiding in the development of R&D strategies to upgrade financial and environmental performance simultaneously.

The effect of spillover on the Granger causality test

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (9) ◽  
pp. 1473-1486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panagiotis Mantalos ◽  
Ghazi Shukur
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

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