scholarly journals Anti-liberal, anti-establishment or constituency-driven? Spatial econometric analysis of polish parliamentary election results in 2015

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Lasoń ◽  
Andrzej Torój
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Spatial Variation ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Spatial Effects ◽  
Spatial Econometric ◽  
Target Groups ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Variation Patterns ◽  
Election Results

We investigated the spatial variation patterns of voting results in Polish parliamentary election in 2015 across 380 regions. That election was a milestone event in Polish politics that substantially affected Poland’s internal and foreign policy directions and promoted two emerging political parties as runners-up against the well-established ones. While socio-economic, cultural and geographical factors such as economic activity, historical legacies (post-Russian East vs post-German West) and economic dichotomies (cities vs the countryside) explain most variations for most parties, they do not appeared to fit as determinants of the new parties’ support, especially of right-wing populists. Demographic target groups of individual parties appear to be relatively unresponsive to their pre-election offerings. The spatial specification of econometric models considerably improves their statistical properties. We also examined mixed-W models to account for the unobservable spatial effects stemming from the construction of constituencies. Their distinctive sets of candidates added significantly to the explanation of the spatial variation in voting.

Mobilization Against the Left? Partisan Consequences of Voter Turnout in the Post-Communist Context

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Nový
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Class Voting ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Explanatory Mechanism

AbstractDoes higher turnout support left-wing parties, as many previous studies assume? Theoretical discussions thus far have been relatively inconclusive. This study proposes three different explanatory mechanisms for examining an aggregate-level relationship between turnout and electoral support for political parties in the post-communist milieu. The conventional hypothesis, based on the assumptions of a successful re-stratification of society and the relevance of class voting, states that higher turnout benefits the left. The second hypothesis is derived from the Michigan model of party identification. In this case, political parties with less loyal electorates would be expected to profit from higher rates of electoral participation. However, this article makes the case for a third possible explanation, termed simply “mobilization against the left,” which reverses the conventional hypothesis. The idea is that the more people come to the polls, the stronger the post-communist right-wing parties will be. This analysis includes two Czech regions that can be said to be farthest away from each other in terms of their socioeconomic and political characteristics. Having analyzed the 2010 Czech parliamentary election results across 1444 electoral districts in two regions, Central Bohemia and Moravia-Silesia, we conclude that there is certain empirical evidence that supports the proposed explanatory mechanism regarding the relationship between voter turnout and share of votes for political parties.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY IN THE BY-ELECTION IN PARLIAMENT OF TANJONG PIAI, JOHOR

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (20) ◽  
pp. 14-56
Author(s):  
Junaidi Awang Besar
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Geography ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Electoral Geography ◽  
Ethnic Chinese ◽  
Geographical Patterns ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Government

Political geography is one of the aspects of human geography that is a larger study, but it contains more specific elements. Political geography focuses on political phenomena and focuses on the structure of the institution and how it is involved in the formation of geographical patterns and relationships. In this paper, two aspects of political geography will be explored in the by-election of the Tanjong Piai parliamentary, namely geopolitics and electoral geography. Geopolitics means the influence of power on an area in terms of ethnicity, political parties, leaders, governments, and local authorities. Election geography is a field of study on the various aspects of geography such as area, borders, population, development, and economic influence on political trends of the state. It is well known that the BN won the Tanjong Piai parliamentary seat in the 2019 by-election and the seat is won by the PH in 2018. The post-election 2018 sees the Tanjong Piai Parliamentary Election on November 16, 2019. BN/MCA candidate Datuk Seri Dr. Wee Jeck Seng won the Tanjong Piai parliamentary by-election with 15,086 votes after gaining 25,466 votes. Thus, the geopolitical aspects that will be uncovered are the influence of ethnic geopolitics, political parties, and leaders in influencing the election results and voting patterns while the geographical aspects of the electorate that will be elaborated in this paper are mapping in terms of area influence (development), border, location (urban-rural), accessible, physical (natural and man-made). In terms of geopolitics ethnicity, found both ethnic Malay and Chinese support BN/MCA ethnic Chinese caused by the candidates and the identification of a party in the by-election of Parliament for Tanjong Piai while the electoral geography, in the polling district outside the city, the majority of ethnic Malays continued strong support BN/MCA while the town/urban where the majority of ethnic Chinese took place a little swing of PH in the BN/MCA caused by the candidates, the socio-economic situation and current issues in favor of the BN/MCA. One of the main factors contributing to the Barisan Nasional’s majority in the Tanjung Piai by-election on Nov 16 was because of its candidate Datuk Seri Dr. Wee Jeck Seng himself. The charm, popularity, and service of Wee, who has been a member of the state legislative assembly of the Pekan Nenas for three years, and the Tanjung Piai MP for two terms, certainly met the level of community satisfaction there. The former Tanjung Piai MP is seen as more experienced, credible, and friendly than Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidate Karmaine Sardini. Wee Jeck Seng’s personal and BN’s machine power-assisted by PAS through the cooperation of the Muafakat Nasional is considered to be the key factor in winning the BN. Jeck Seng’s strength is also reflected in the BN and PAS’s unified machine power which was successfully consolidated through the Muafakat Nasional. This factor is significant because the UMNO and PAS machinery are seen as working hard to ensure that all white voters are cast out, despite the Tanjung Piai parliamentary seat being contested by MCA candidates. Moreover, issues of anger and frustration of the people and especially the Chinese community over the failure of the government to deal with the rising cost of living, the promise of the 14th General Election (GE14) manifesto were not met and the failure of the PH to address sensational issues played by BN also contributed to the defeating factor for PH this time. PH candidates are also seen to be caught up in the issue of their own mistakes as well as the wisdom of the BN machinery to play negative issues involving the PH Government which ultimately influences the electorate.

scholarly journals Results of the Parliamentary Elections in Netherland and their Impact on Russian-Netherlands Relations

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 22-29
Author(s):  
Boris Guseletov
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right

The article examines the results of the parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, held on March 15-17, 2021. It compares the results of the leading political parties in the elections of 2017 and 2021, and describes all the leading Dutch political parties that were represented in parliament in the period from 2017 to 2021. The results of the activities of the government headed by the leader of the “People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy” M. Rutte, formed following the results of the 2017 elections, are presented. The reasons for the resignation of this government, which took place on the eve of the elections, and its impact on the course of the election campaign are revealed. It was noted how the coronavirus pandemic and the government’s actions to overcome its consequences affected the course and results of the election campaign. The activity of the main opposition parties in this country is evaluated: the right-wing Eurosceptic Freedom Party of Wilders, the center-left Labor Party and others. The course of the election campaign and its main topics, as well as the new political parties that were elected to the parliament as a result of these elections, are considered. The positions of the country’s leading political parties on their possible participation in the new government coalition are shown. The state of Russian-Dutch relations is analyzed. A forecast is given of how the election results will affect the formation of the new government of this country and the political, trade and economic relations between Russia and the Netherlands.

Bahrain Parliamentary Election Results: 25 November and 2 December 2006

2007 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 170-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Gregory Gause
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Campaign Activity ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Political Associations

There are forty single-member districts in Bahrain. If a candidate wins a majority of the total votes cast in the district in the first round, he or she is elected. If no candidate receives a majority, the top two vote-getters compete in a runoff election one week later. Political parties are banned, but political “associations” act as parties, supporting lists of candidates, coordinating campaign activity, and publishing platforms. Districts are configured to overrepresent the Sunni minority.

scholarly journals Ties of Solidarity and the Political Spectrum: Partisan Cleavages in Reported Solidarity Activity Across Europe

2019 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 459-474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes M. Kiess ◽  
Hans-Jörg Trenz
Keyword(s):  
National Identity ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Disabled Persons ◽  
The Political ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Party Affiliation ◽  
European Perspective ◽  
Target Groups ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
Community Commitment

The strength of solidarity ties among individuals is often discussed in relation to membership within a community of equals. This assumes strong links between reported solidarity actions, political attitudes, and national identity. We ask, first, whether differences in solidarity engagement can be explained by party affiliation: Do adherents of political parties driven by right-identitarian politics and adherents of parties driven by left-redistributive politics differ considerably in terms of reported solidarity action? Second, we investigate whether such differences can be explained by the nationality of the supported groups, and third, we explore whether there is a salience of reported solidarity action and party affiliation across European countries. We examine these questions by looking at cleavages in reported solidarity action in support of three different target groups: unemployed, disabled persons, and refugees. Our findings indicate first of all that partisan affiliation matters: cleavages in solidarity behavior follow traditional ideological patterns. Second, and contrary to the exclusive-communitarian rhetoric that is found in party programs and statements of right-wing populist parties, their adherents are among those supporting both nationals and foreigners least, while adherents of left and radical left parties engage in support toward nationals and non-nationals. Third, from a comparative European perspective, we observe similar patterns of a divide between an inclusive, solidary, and cosmopolitan left and a non-solidary right with low interests in community commitment.

scholarly journals The Weakness of Populism in Spain

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 197-209
Author(s):  
Astrid Barrio
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
Radical Right ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Fault Lines

This paper analyses why Populism has failed to take root in Spain despite a ‘soil’ that has favoured its seeding and growth elsewhere. At first sight, Spain seems to provide the conditions in which Populism can thrive: a deep economic crisis (which began with the financial meltdown in 2008) and a succession of corruption scandals affecting all the main political parties. Even so, Populism has failed to gain a hold in Spain. The traditional Far Right is very weak, and new parties such as Podemos and Ciudadanos cannot be considered Populist. While Vox displays all the features of a radical right-wing party, it is one from which Populism is absent. We argue that the lack of Populism in Spain can mainly be explained by the highly fractured nature of the country’s politics, with left-right and national fault lines shaping how political competition plays out in the nation.

Poll win will boost premier of Azerbaijan secession

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Member State ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The Self ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coalition Politics

Subject The parliamentary election in Nagorno-Karabakh. Significance The newly elected 33-seat legislature in the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR, which no UN member state recognises as independent) now comprises five political parties and blocs, with the prime minister's party garnering slightly fewer than half the seats. With a new parliamentary coalition to be formed, positioning will now begin for the presidential election NKR will hold in 2017, as the incumbent is in his second and final term. Impacts The strong showing of the premier's party will bolster his bid to run as Karabakh's next president in two years. However, new parties in parliament may challenge the incumbent leadership, and coalition politics may prove testy. Armenia, which negotiates for Karabakh in peace talks with Azerbaijan, may seek to strengthen its influence in Stepanakert.

scholarly journals The level of representativeness of political parties and the demand for new parties in the Polish party system

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 49-57
Author(s):  
Maciej Marmola
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Party System ◽  
Nationwide Survey ◽  
Survey Study ◽  
Political Movements ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
The One ◽  
Political Scene

This paper explores whether the Polish electorate feels that political parties represent their interests and how many voters expect the emergence of new non-parliamentary political movements. A nationwide survey study (N=970) confirms that over 30% of a study sample has no party that could be perceived as representing their interests. Moreover, the results suggest that this may generate the demand for new non-parliamentary parties. With regard to political practice, the study, to some extent, explains why Law and Justice (PiS) won the 2019 parliamentary elections. Unlike other parties, the voters of Law of Justice declare that they have their representatives on the political scene. The one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reveals that this opinion is more often expressed by elderly, poorly educated, very religious and right-wing voters. The formation of a new non-parliamentary party was more often expected by people describing themselves as center-left, non-religious, average earners and secondary-educated.

scholarly journals Mobilizace proti levici? Stranické konsekvence volební účasti v kontextu postkomunismu

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Nový
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Class Voting ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Party Support

Does higher turnout support left-wing parties, as many previous studies assume? And does communist legacy somehow project on the mentioned relationship? The theoretical discussion is still relatively unclear. This study proposes three different explanatory mechanisms of examining aggregate-level relationship between turnout and electoral support for political parties in the post-communist milieu. The mainstream hypothesis, based on the assumptions of a successful re-stratification of the society and the relevance of class voting, states that higher turnout benefits the left. The second option is derived from the Michigan model of party identification. In this case, political parties with less loyal electorate should profit from higher rates of electoral participation. However, this article makes a case for a third possible explanation, which turns the conventional hypothesis upside down and can be termed simply as „mobilization against the left“. The idea is that the more people come to the polls, the stronger the post-communist right wing parties will be. Moreover, I include in my analysis only two electoral districts (regions) that can be said to be the farthest away from each other in their socioeconomic and political characteristics. Such an approach makes it possible to answer the question whether the expected effect is uniform or unequal across electoral districts in one country. Based on the analysis of election results in 1444 constituencies of two electoral districts in the Central Bohemian and Moravian-Silesian regions in the 2010 Parliamentary elections, I conclude that the proposed approach to the issue of party support and voter turnout has strong empirical support.

2018 Fiji Election Results: Patterns of Voting by Provinces, Rural-Urban Localities, and by Candidates

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haruo Nakagawa
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Interesting Case ◽  
The Political ◽  
Quantitative Analyses ◽  
Election Results

Akin to the previous, 2014 event, with no data on voter ethnicity, no exit polls, and few post-election analyses, the 2018 Fiji election results remain something of a mystery despite the fact that there had been a significant swing in voting in favour of Opposition political parties. There have been several studies about the election results, but most of them have been done without much quantitative analyses. This study examines voting patterns of Fiji’s 2018 election by provinces, and rural-urban localities, as well as by candidates, and also compares the 2018 and 2014 elections by spending a substantial time classifying officially released data by polling stations and individual candidates. Some of the data are then further aggregated according to the political parties to which those candidates belonged. The current electoral system in Fiji is a version of a proportional system, but its use is rare and this study will provide an interesting case study of the Open List Proportional System. At the end of the analyses, this study considers possible reasons for the swing in favour of the Opposition.

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