scholarly journals The Prediction for Shanghai Business Climate Index by Grey Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (14) ◽  
pp. 2976-2980 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weisi Zhang ◽  
Hongyan Li
Keyword(s):  
Grey Model ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Business Climate

Research on Asian Cruise Business Climate Index

2018 ◽  
pp. 109-127
Author(s):  
Ling Qiu ◽  
Juan Luo ◽  
Linkai Qi ◽  
Hong Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Index ◽  
Business Climate

A study of multi-dimension business climate index approach and its application

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Guihuan Zheng ◽  
Jiawei Zhang ◽  
Ai Han ◽  
Shouyang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Index ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Index Approach

scholarly journals Identifying Reform Priorities

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (278) ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus-Peter Hellwig
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Marginal Effect ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Importance Ranking ◽  
Strong Consensus ◽  
Low Costs ◽  
Insolvency Proceedings ◽  
Country Specific

Can countries improve their business climate through reforms in specific policy areas? Kraay and Tawara (2013) find that the answer depends on how we measure the business climate. When regressing seven different business climate indices on 38 policy indicators, they find little agreement among the seven models as to which of those policy indicators matter most. I revisit this puzzle using the same data but replacing their linear models with a Random Forest algorithm. I find a strong consensus across models on the importance ranking of policy indicators: No matter which business climate index is considered, the top ten contributors to a better business climate always include high recovery rates in insolvency proceedings (i.e., cents on the dollar for creditors), shorter border formalities for both importers and exporters, and low costs for starting a business. I show that the marginal effect of reforms is heterogeneous across countries and document how reform priorities depend on country specific circumstances.

scholarly journals The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: estimating the impact of Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Muehlemann ◽  
Harald Pfeifer ◽  
Bernhard H. Wittek
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
German Economy ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Skilled Worker ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Matching Problems ◽  
The Impact ◽  
High Share

Abstract A firm’s expectation about the future business cycle is an important determinant of the decision to train apprentices, especially as German firms typically offer apprenticeships to either fill future skilled worker positions, or as a substitute for other types of labor. The current coronavirus crisis will have a strong and negative impact on the German economy, according to the current business cycle expectations of German firms. To the extent that the training decisions of firms depend on these perceptions, we expect a downward shift in firm demand for apprentices and consequently also a decrease in the equilibrium number of apprenticeship contracts. To assess the impact of changes in business cycle expectations, we analyze German data on the apprenticeship market at the state-level and at the occupation-level within states from 2007 to 2019. We apply first-differences regressions to account for unobserved heterogeneity across states and occupations, allowing us to identify the association between changes in two popular measures of business cycle expectations (the ifo Business Climate Index and the ifo Employment Barometer) and subsequent changes in the demand for apprentices, the number of new apprenticeship contracts, unfilled vacancies and unsuccessful applicants. We find that the German apprenticeship market prior to the current crisis can be characterized by excess demand for apprentices (although there are matching problems in some states, with both a high share of unfilled vacancies and a high share of unsuccessful applicants). Taking into account the most recent data on business cycle expectations up to June 2020, we estimate that the coronavirus-related decrease in firms’ expectations about the business cycle can be associated with a predicted 8% decrease in firm demand for apprentices and a 6% decrease in the number of new apprenticeship positions in Germany compared to 2019 (− 30,000 apprenticeship contracts; 95% confidence interval: ± 8000).

Low-carbon Energy Companies’ Systemic Risk and Influential Factors in China

2014 ◽  
Vol 962-965 ◽  
pp. 1713-1716
Author(s):  
Dong Sun ◽  
Shuang Ren
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Energy Structure ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Risk Characteristics ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Energy Companies ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

China is a big energy consumption country with unbalanced energy structure and inefficient energy conversion, so companies and investors begin to pay attention to low-carbon energy sector. This paper is to understand the risk characteristics of low-carbon energy companies. Firstly, it combed the influential factors and impact mechanism. Secondly, using econometric models and scenario analysis analyzed systemic risk and seven influential factors. And empirical result shows that macroeconomic indicators, such as fluctuations in international oil prices and business climate index have more significant impact to systemic risk than other factors. Finally, it provided useful suggestions for investors and policy makers.

Die Gründerkrise von 1873/79 - Fiktion oder Realität? Einige Überlegungen im Kontext der Weltfinanz- und Wirtschaftskrise von 2008/2009

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Margrit Grabas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Index ◽  
Sociocultural Factors ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
Quantitative Studies ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
First Time

AbstractThe starting point of this article is the Great Recession of 2008/9. It is compared to the “Gründerkrise” of 1873/9 because monetary, institutional and structural problems overlapped. Discussing new quantitative studies this article suggests that business cycles should be analysed on the basis of disaggregate time series as well as by considering sociocultural factors. In this context, a historical economic barometer for the period of 1869-1900 is constructed according to the Ifo Business Climate Index for the first time. It confirms the well known “Gründerzeit”-pattern of boom and crisis which was revised for the real economy recently. With regard to the theoretical context of long-term structural cycles, the “Gründerkrise” is finally interpreted as a structural crisis whose course was extraordinarily severe because of unregulated stock market speculation.

Opportunities for accelerating labor productivity growth: The role of small and medium enterprises

2020 ◽  
pp. 98-114
Author(s):  
Evguenia V. Bessonova ◽  
Alexander G. Morozov ◽  
Natalia A. Turdyeva ◽  
Anna N. Tsvetkova
Keyword(s):  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Labor Productivity Growth ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Low Efficiency ◽  
Medium Enterprises ◽  
Medium Firms

The paper considers necessary conditions for acceleration of labor productivity growth in Russia. Based on micro data, as well as aggregate data, the paper quantifies the contribution of small and medium firms to labor productivity growth. It shows that mere increase of the number of small and medium enterprises is not as important for positive effects of these programs, as qualitative improvements: development of favorable environment for growth, which is largely determined by business climate. Accelerating productivity growth involves redistribution of labor and capital from inefficient to efficient enterprises. In particular, it is necessary to create conditions, which allow a firm to grow after it enters the market instead of stagnating as a small firm with low efficiency. At the same time, it is necessary for ineffective firms, which exhausted their growth potential, to have an opportunity to exit the market easily leaving resources including labor to fast-growing companies.

Prediction of Technical Reserves Based on Grey Model — GM(1,1): Evidence from Non-life Egyptian Insurance Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 852-860
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Elsayed ◽  
◽  
Amr Soliman ◽  
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Insurance Market ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Loss Ratio ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Mathematical Technique ◽  
Supervisory Authority ◽  
Error Ratio ◽  
Using Data

Grey system theory is a mathematical technique used to predict data with known and unknown characteristics. The aim of our research is to forecast the future amount of technical reserves (outstanding claims reserve, loss ratio fluctuations reserve and unearned premiums reserve) up to 2029/2030. This study applies the Grey Model GM(1,1) using data obtained from the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA) over the period from 2005/2006 to 2015/2016 for non-life Egyptian insurance market. We found that the predicted amounts of outstanding claims reserve and loss ratio fluctuations reserve are highly significant than the unearned premiums reserve according to the value of Posterior Error Ratio (PER).

Prediction control of multilevel inverter based on grey model

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (12) ◽  
pp. 1126-1131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haihong Huang ◽  
Renzeng Yang ◽  
Haixin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Multilevel Inverter ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Prediction Control
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