scholarly journals Policy Uncertainty, Macroeconomic Dynamics, And US Unemployment Conditions

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rexford Abaidoo
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Special Character ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
And Performance

<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span><p style="background: white; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; text-align: justify; mso-pagination: none;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">This study provides empirical verification of the link between policy uncertainty</span><a name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" href="http://journals.cluteonline.com/index.php/JABR/author/submit/3?articleId=7222#_ftn1"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">, unemployment rate and other key US macroeconomic and performance indicators. A VAR augmented model (augmented by impulse responds function (IRF)) and Granger Causality test are employed in this study. Empirical results based on quarterly time series data (spanning the period 1960 to 2011) shows deficit induced policy uncertainty has significant negative impact on key US macroeconomic and performance indicators. This study also finds that one standard deviation policy uncertainty shock has immediate and significant negative impact on unemployment rate, GDP growth and other indicators tested. Concluding Granger causality test also shows deficit induced policy uncertainty granger cause variability in GDP and fixed private investment growth.</span></span></p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span><div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><br /><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> <hr size="1" /></span><div style="mso-element: footnote;" id="ftn1"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span><p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; text-align: justify;" class="MsoFootnoteText"><a name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" href="http://journals.cluteonline.com/index.php/JABR/author/submit/3?articleId=7222#_ftnref1"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 9pt; mso-fareast-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">[1]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> Measured in terms of Relative Political Capacity (RPC) formally introduced by Organski and Kugler (1980); and modified by Kugler and Arbetman (1997).</span></span></p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span></div><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span></div><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span>

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment, External Debt, and Balance of Payment: A Causality Analysis for Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mahmud Mostafa
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Short Run

The purpose of this study is to analyze the causal relationship of external debt and balance of payment with foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bangladesh for the period of 1980 to 2017 through the application of Johansen Cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger Causality approach. Results of cointegration and VECM indicate a significant long-run relationship between dependent (FDI) and independent variables (external debt and balance of payment). External debt is found to have a significant negative impact on FDI in the long-run, but it is found insignificant in the short-run. In contrast, the balance of payment has a significant positive effect on FDI both in the long-run and short-run. Results of the Granger causality test reveal that there exists bidirectional short-run causality between the balance of payment and FDI; that is, both the balance of payment and FDI affect each other. But no unidirectional or bidirectional short-run causality is found between external debt and FDI. Keywords: FDI, external debt, balance of payment, cointegration, VECM, causality

Causal Linkages between Terrorism and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Four Provinces of Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luqman Saeed ◽  
Shabib Haider Syed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Reverse Causation ◽  
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ◽  
Terrorist Activity ◽  
National Economies

AbstractThis study analyses the dynamics of causal linkages between terrorism and economic growth across four provinces of Pakistan using Bivariate and Trivariate Hsaio Granger Causality test. The empirical evidence reveals within country idiosyncratic causal trends; hence demonstrating the importance of analysing sub-national variations while determining the extent to which terrorism is related with other variables. The estimates suggest that terrorist activity Granger causes economic growth in Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. The reverse causation from economic growth to terrorism is observed in case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa only. The evidence presented in this paper stresses the importance of taking into account higher vulnerability of comparatively weaker sub-national economies while formulating relevant policies to ameliorate negative impact of terrorism.

scholarly journals The Effect of Inter-personal Trust on Opportunism and Business Performance of Gem Dealers in Sri Lanka

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 127-131
Author(s):  
Pamudika Ishani Gamage ◽  
H. M. S. Priyanath
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Business Performance ◽  
Interpersonal Trust ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Personal Trust ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Major Hypothesis

This study attempts to explore the effect of interpersonal-trust on opportunism and business performance of gem dealers in Sri Lanka. Therefore, the study suggests three major hypothesis which was tested on primary data gathered from 100 registered gem dealers in the Ratnapura district in Sri Lanka, using structured questionnaires. The results demonstrate that inter-personal trust i.e. credibility, benevolence, ability among gem dealers have a significant negative impact on opportunism and positive significant impact on business improvements. Whereas highlighting the inverse relationship between business opportunism and performance. Furthermore, this study concludes that inter-personal trust has greater impacts on the well-being of this industry highlighting it as the main relational attribute among gem dealers interactions. Thus, inter-personal trust lowers their transaction costs in exchanges and increase the profit levels of gem dealers in Sri Lanka.

scholarly journals How Does China’s Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect the Sustainability of Its Net Grain Imports?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6899
Author(s):  
Yuee Li ◽  
Jingdong Li
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Virtual Water ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Trade Cost ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Embodied Carbon ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Impact

China is a considerable grain importer in the world. However, the sustainability of China’s grain imports has been greatly challenged by its increasing economic policy uncertainty (EPU). This paper constructs the indicators of economic and environmental sustainability of China’s net grain imports and analyzes the impact of its EPU index on these indicators with a Time-Varying Parameter Stochastic Volatility Vector Autoregression (TVP-SV-VAR) model to explore how China’s EPU affects the sustainability of its net grain imports. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) The sustainability of China’s net grain imports fluctuated from 2001 to 2019. (2) China’s EPU has a negative impact on the economic sustainability of its net grain imports. A higher EPU index leads to a lower net import potential ratio and higher trade cost. (3) China’s EPU has a significant negative impact on the environmental sustainability of its net grain imports. It has the greatest negative impact on virtual water imports and smaller impact on virtual land imports and embodied carbon emission. Therefore, China’s EPU affects the sustainability of its net grain imports negatively through its impact on its net grain import potential ratio, trade cost, and virtual land, virtual water, and embodied carbon emissions in net grain imports.

scholarly journals The Research of the Causal Relationship Between Unemployment and Emigration in Lithuania

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 294-301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gitana Dudzevičiūtė ◽  
Justinas Čekanauskas
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
European Union Countries

This paper aims to investigate the causal relationship between unemployment and emigration in Lithuania using Granger – causality test. The research is based on annual data spanning the period of 2004–2012. The investigation encompasses two steps. Firstly, the authors have analyzed the Lithuanian position regarding relationship between unemployment rate and emigration in the context of the European Union countries; secondly, the causality between unemployment and emigration has been determined in the case of Lithuania. On the basis of the European Union countries statistical data, results of the research have revealed a weak correlation between unemployment rate and emigration. On the contrary, evidence has suggested the existence of a strong relationship between unemployment and emigration in Lithuania. Results of the Granger – causality test have showed that unemployment impacts on emigration in Lithuania.

scholarly journals THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION RATE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN INDONESIA, 1985-2008

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Selli Nelonda
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Negative Correlation ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Total Labor Force ◽  
Wage Inflation ◽  
Total Labor ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between inflation rate and unemployment. Tradeoff between inflation and unemployment rate showed a negative correlation between unemployment and wage inflation. Using the OLS method (1985-2008), the estimates indicate that the rate of inflation does not significantly influence the level of unemployment. It can be seen from a positive inflation coefficient value and not significant. Total labor force significantly affect unemployment rates. The unemployment rate last year significant effect on the unemployment rate today. Granger causality test shows that there is no causal relationship between unemployment and inflation.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Unemployment Rate in Jordan: A Multivariate Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 109
Author(s):  
Mohammad Ibrahim Malawi Alrabba
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Second Period ◽  
Determinants Of Unemployment

This study aims to investigate the determinants of unemployment rate in Jordan during the period (1992-2015). The Augmented Dickey- Fuller test (ADF) was utilized to examine the stationarity of the variables of this study. The results have shown that the variables are stationary at different orders, I(0), I(1), and I(2). The Granger causality test found that there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from private investment to unemployment rate.Two tools of analysis were employed: impulse response function and variance decomposition through applying a vector autoregression (VAR) model. The final results have shown that private investment has a negative impact on unemployment rate in Jordan, which explains about 2.64% of the variations in the unemployment rate in the second period and (1.58%) in the fourth period. This percentage also tends to decline to a level at which the explanatory power of private investment for the forecast error in the unemployment rate can reach 1.34% in the ninth period.

scholarly journals Econometric estimation of the relationship between the unemployment rate and economic growth in Limpopo Province, South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tshephi Kingsley Thaba ◽  
Abenet Belete ◽  
Johannes Jan Hlongwane ◽  
Lesetja Jacob Ledwaba
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Limpopo Province ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Difference Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. The study aims to estimate empirically the relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate in Limpopo Province of South Africa. The analysis used quarterly data covering the period 2008-2018 which was obtained from Statistics South Africa. The study employed, difference model, dynamic model, and granger causality test for data analysis, in order to consider both, short term and long term possible relationship Based on the difference model estimation of the coefficient was done and the coefficient was found to be -0.22. From Granger causality test, causal relationship between these two variables doesn’t exist meaning that change in the growth rate of real GDP doesn’t cause change in the rate of unemployment and vice-versa. Inapplicable of the law indicates that a cyclical recovery will not be accompanied by reduction of unemployment. Furthermore, this might reflect the sizable structural and/or frictional component of unemployment in Limpopo Province. Lastly, the country's economic policies have not been suitable for fostering development that can reduce unemployment and this could be due to lack of appropriate composition of public sector and private sector.

scholarly journals Causal Linkage between Inflation and Unemployment: An evidence from the Selected MENA Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-131
Author(s):  
Tarek Kacemi ◽  
Sallahuddin Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Causal Association ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Panel Granger Causality

The current study measures the causal association between inflation and unemployment employing Phillips Curve approach from 1990 until 2016 for selected MENA countries. Granger causality and the heterogeneous causality methods for Panel are employed by this study as proposed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin. This causality test has an advantage over the panel Granger causality as it considers two dimensions of heterogeneity. The finding revealed a unidirectional causality between unemployment and inflation with Panel Dumitrescu and Hurlin Granger causality but not in the panel Granger causality test. Therefore, the governments should choose to stabilize inflation rate or reduce unemployment rate.

scholarly journals Ekološka osviještenost investitora i kupaca: slučaj Volkswagen grupe i afere Dieselgate

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 65-83
Author(s):  
Berislav Žmuk ◽  
Luka Perović
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Business Performance ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ecological Awareness ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Volkswagen Group ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Illegal Activities

The Dieselgate affair is linked to the illegal activities of the Volkswagen Group, which involved the deception of car buyers and the concealment of the actual results of the level of harmful gases discharges in diesel cars using computer programs. Although the Volkswagen group has been using these illegal activities for a long time, they were only discovered in September 2015. Through selected statistical methods the paper examines the Dieselgate affair disclosure impact on the behaviour of the Volkswagen Group investors and customers. It is assumed that investors and customers possess ecological awareness and that the selected Volkswagen Group business performance indicators should have reflected that. The research demonstrated that the Dieselgate affair has had a major impact on the decline of the Volkswagen Group regular and privileged shares value. On the other hand, the Dieselgate affair did not have a significant negative impact on Volkswagen Group vehicles sales. Indeed, after a short adjustment period, the Volkswagen Group continued to increase vehicle sales even after the disclosure of the Dieselgate affair.

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