What is the potential for a second peak in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in emerging and developing economies? Insights from a SIRASD model considering the informal economy

We study the potential scenarios from a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Asymptomatic-Symptomatic-Dead (SIRASD) model. As a novelty, we consider populations that differ in their degree of compliance with social distancing policies following socioeconomic attributes that are observed in emerging and developing countries. Considering epidemiological parameters estimated from data of the propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil — where there is a significant stake of the population making their living in the informal economy and thus prone to not follow self-isolation — we assert that if the confinement measures are lifted too soon, namely as much as one week of consecutive declining numbers of new cases, it is very likely the appearance of a second peak. Our approach should be valid for any country where the number of people involved in the informal economy is a large proportion of the total labor force. In summary, our results point out the crucial relevance of target policies for supporting people in the informal economy to properly comply with preventive measures during the pandemic.

Studi Empiris Government Effectiveness dan Trade Openness terhadap Perdagangan Internasional

This study aims to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors such as Inflation, Exchange Rates, Total Labor Force, Technology, Worldwide Government and Trade Openness on International Trade in 10 Islamic countries as the main actors of international trade Intra-OKI from 2005 to 2018. Quantitative research This applies the Panel Data Regression method to the Fixed Effect Model. Research analysis techniques use the EViews 10. software program. Empirical results show that inflation and total labor force, government effectiveness and trade openness have a significant positive effect to Intra-OKI international trade. This means that the better the quality of worldwide government and trade openness in a country will increase the country's international trade activities. In addition, exchange rates and technology do not have a significant effect in Intra-OKI international trade.

Labor Force Participation Rate and Economic Growth: Observations for Bangladesh

The study investigates the relationship between the labor force participation rate for both male and female, gross fixed capital formation, and economic growth in Bangladesh using the annual time series data from 1991 to 2017. The results find two bidirectional nexus that one is between total labor force participation and economic growth and second is between gross fixed capital formations and economic growth whereas the findings also show a unidirectional causal association from female labor force participation to economic progress for Bangladesh. The study also finds that both total labor force participation and female labor force participation have short-run positive significant effects on the economic development for Bangladesh but adverse effects in the long run. On the contrary gross fixed capital formation contains short term significant negative indication on the economic growth but has an explicit positive considerable impact on the economic development of Bangladesh. The government of Bangladesh needs to give more importance in technical education format that will produce more skilled labor.

Effect of Unemployment Rate on Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product of Jordan

This study explains the effect of unemployment rate on growth rate of GDP of Jordan by depending on yearly data for the period (2009 – 2016) as unemployment rate is independent variable, and growth rate of GDP (Avariable of economic growth) as a dependent variable. This study focuses on explaining the literature both in theoretical and empirical ways of the effect of unemployment rate on growth rate of GDP, and analyzing the effect of unemployment rate on growth rate of GDP of Jordan by depending on yearly data for the period (2009 – 2016) by using the technique of ordinary least squares in version of E-views. This paper found that there are insignificant impacts of unemployment percentage to total labor force, unemployment of males percentage to male labor force, unemployment of females percentage to female labor force on growth rate of GDP of Jordan by relying on yearly data for the period 2009 to 2016 at level of significance 5%. This paper recommends testing the impacts of other obstacles in Jordan on growth rate on GDP, in order to know the variables that effect growth rate of GDP in Jordan.

Analisis Data Panel pada Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Kabupaten/Kota di Pulau Jawa

Unemployment rate is the percentage of the number of unemployed to the total labor force, it has become some problems in economic development. The aim of this study is to choose the best model between common, fixed, and random effects in modeling open unemployment rate of regency/city in Java. It based on open unemployment rate with several influence factors in Java Island 2010-2016 which are panel data types. The best model choosen based on the results of the Chow test and Hausman test. The fixed effect model was obtained as the best model with a value of 79,26 percent.

Kesiapan Tenaga Kerja Indonesia yang Tidak Memiliki Keterampilan (Unskill) dalam Menghadapi ASEAN Community 2015

ABSTRACT Indonesia is the most populous country in South East Asia. Indonesia's population growth continues to increase from year to year so that the total labor force also increased. This raises the employment problem in the absence of a balance between labor and Bid in negeri.Akan commencement Asean Community in 2015 will provide a positive and negative impact for Indonesia. Liberalism free market of goods and services will spur domestic investment and attracted foreign workers to Indonesia. The influx of foreign workers in Indonesia can be a threat if possible Indonesian workers do not have a comparable competitiveness. Rights for workers in Indonesia have been set in both the 1945 constitution, the Law No. 39 Year 2004 on Human Rights, and the Act No. 13 of 2003 on Manpower.Keywords: Indonesian labor unskill,Asean Community 2015 ABSTRAK Indonesia adalah Negara dengan jumlah penduduk terbanyak di Asia Tenggara.Pertumbuhan penduduk Indonesia terus meningkat dari tahun ketahun sehingga jumlah angkatan kerja juga terus meningkat. Hal tersebut menimbulkan masalah ketenagakerjaan karena tidak adanya keseimbangan antara permintaan dan penawaran tenaga kerja dalam negeri.Akan dimulainya Community asean 2015 akan memberikan dampak positif dan negative bagi Indonesia. Liberalisme pasarbebas barang dan jasa akan memacu investasi dalam negeri dan menarik tenaga kerja asing ke Indonesia. Masuknya tenaga kerja asing ke Indonesia dimungkinkan dapat menjadi ancaman apabila tenaga kerja Indonesia tidak mempunyai daya saing yang sebanding. Hak-hakasasi bagi para tenaga kerja di Indonesia telah diatur dalam konstitusi baik dalam UUD 1945, Undang-Undang Nomor 39 Tahun 2004 tentang Hak Asasi Manusia, maupun dalam Undang-Undang Nomor 13 tahun 2003 tentang Ketenagakerjaan.Kata Kunci :Tenaga kerja tidak memiliki ketrampilan, Asean Community 2015

PENGARUH VARIABEL MONETER DAN NON MONETER TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

This study aims to determine and analyze the influence between monetary variables consisting of foreign investment and inflation on economic growth, and the influence of non-monetary variables consisting of total labor force and economic growth. The type of this research is descriptive research, where the data used is the time series data from 1984 to 2015 obtained from the World Bank and Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) website, which is analyzed by Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The results of this study indicate that the monetary variables of foreign investment have a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Indonesia and inflation has a negative and significant effect on economic growth in Indonesia, while the non-monetary variable is the total labor force has an insignificant and positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia and Government spending has a significant and positive impact on economic growth in Indonesia.

PEMBERDAYAAN UMKM DAN LEMBAGA KEUANGAN SYARIAH MELALUI PRINSIP BAGI HASIL

<p>This article describes the micro, small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which has high ability to absorb labor market, as many as 97.3% from the total labor force working. However, the role of micro, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the reality have difficulties in some factors, one of the factor is capital issues. This is where Syariah financial institution with the profit sharing principal to be expected become ideal solution, this because on the financing use the profit sharing principal. Observing phenomenon as above it is necessary to have assessment on few point area, first, implementation of financing on Syariah financial institution in the Malang City perceived become ideal solutions. Second, the factors which become the barrier on implementation of financing on Syariah financial institution in Malang City. Third; the right solution to overcome the barrier factors on the implementation at Shariah financial institution in Malang City concerning exact profit sharing principal.</p> <p>Artikel ini membahas tentang kemampuan usaha mikro, kecil dan menengah (UMKM) dalam menyerap tenaga kerja di Indonesia yang cukup besar, yaitu sebanyak 97,3% dari total angkatan kerja yang bekerja. Namun peran tersebut dalam kenyataannya terkendala oleh beberapa hal, diantaranya permasalahan modal. Disinilah peran Lembaga Keuangan Syari’ah dengan pembiayaan berprinsip bagi hasil sangat diharapkan. Mengamati fenomena yang demikian maka perlu dikaji mengenai beberapa hal; pertama, pelaksanaan pembiayaan pada Lembaga Keuangan Syari’ah di kota Malang yang dirasa ideal bagi usaha mikro, kecil dan menengah (UMKM). Kedua, faktor-faktor penghambat pelaksanaan pembiayaan pada Lembaga Keuangan Syari’ah di Kota Malang berkenaan dengan prinsip bagi hasil, dan ketiga, solusi untuk mengatasi faktor-faktor penghambat pelaksanaan pembiayaan pada Lembaga Keuangan Syari’ah di Kota Malang berkenaan dengan prinsip bagi hasil yang ideal tersebut.</p>

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION RATE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN INDONESIA, 1985-2008

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between inflation rate and unemployment. Tradeoff between inflation and unemployment rate showed a negative correlation between unemployment and wage inflation. Using the OLS method (1985-2008), the estimates indicate that the rate of inflation does not significantly influence the level of unemployment. It can be seen from a positive inflation coefficient value and not significant. Total labor force significantly affect unemployment rates. The unemployment rate last year significant effect on the unemployment rate today. Granger causality test shows that there is no causal relationship between unemployment and inflation.