scholarly journals KETIDAKPASTIAN KEBIJAKAN EKONOMI CHINA DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

BISMA ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Regina Niken Wilantari ◽  
Faradilla Oktaviana ◽  
Edy Santoso ◽  
Duwi Yunitasari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Global economic policy uncertainty will influence economic stability among countries integrated into international trade. The trade war between America and China has affected the weakening of macroeconomic indicators in developing countries, one of which is Indonesia. The objective of this study is to examine the influence of China's economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic indicators, i.e., inflation, investment, and Brent oil price, on Indonesia's economic growth. Research data were secondary time series data taken from the Q1 2009-Q4 2018 quarterly period. The method of analysis used is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results showed that in the long run, the uncertainty of China's economic policy and Brent oil price could negatively influence Indonesia's economic growth. On the other hand, inflation, in the long run, had a positive and significant influence on Indonesia's economic growth. Meanwhile, investment did not have a significant influence on Indonesia's economic growth. Keywords: economic growth, uncertainty of economic policy, Vector Error Correction Model

scholarly journals The Effect of Immigration on Economic Growth in an Ageing Economy

2014 ◽  
pp. 35-63
Author(s):  
Joan Muysken ◽  
Thomas Ziesemer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Welfare States ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Native Population ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Permanent Shocks

Immigration can help to alleviate the burden ageing presents for the welfare states of most Western Economies. To show this, a macroeconomic model is developed which deals with the effect of both ageing and immigration on economic growth, through home-biased capital accumulation. The model includes a detailed description of the labor market, analyzing the interaction with low-skilled unemployment. The empirical relevance of some crucial model assumptions is shown to hold for the Netherlands, 1973 – 2009, using a vector-error-correction model. Simulations of the latter model show that permanent shocks in immigration will help to alleviate the ageing problem in the long run, as long as the immigrants will be able to participate in the labor force at least as much as the native population. Moreover, the better educated the immigrants are or become, the higher their contribution to growth will be.

scholarly journals KONTRIBUSI INDUSTRI KEUANGAN NON-BANK (IKNB) KONVENSIONAL DAN SYARIAH TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-279
Author(s):  
Nabila Ilmalina Faza ◽  
Muhammad Ghafur Wibowo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Financial Intermediaries ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run

AbstractThis research aims to empirically examine the contributions of Conventional Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries (Conventional NBFIs) and Islamic Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries (Islamic NBFIs) development on economic growth in Indonesia. This study used Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to test the causality and long-run relationship between the two intermediaries by using time series data over the period spanning 2014 to 2017. The results show an evidence of bidirectional causality view and a long-run relationship between the development of Conventional Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries (Conventional NBFIs) and Islamic Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries (Islamic NBFIs) on economic growth in Indonesia. The result also proves that Islamic Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries (Islamic NBFIs) is more resistant to economic growth shock than Conventional Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries (Conventional NBFIs). Keywords: Conventional NBFIs, Islamic NBFIs, Economic Growth AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui kontribusi perkembangan Industri Keuangan Non-Bank (IKNB) Konvensional dan Industri Keuangan Non-Bank (IKNB) Syariah pada pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan Vector Autoregression (VAR) pada Industri Keuangan Non-Bank (IKNB) Konvensional dan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) pada Industri Keuangan Non-Bank (IKNB) Syariah untuk menguji hubungan kausalitas dan jangka panjang antara keduanya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi.  Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data time series bulanan dari periode 2014 hingga 2017. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan kausalitas dua arah (bidirectional causality view) dan hubungan jangka panjang antara perkembangan IKNB baik Konvensional maupun Syariah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Hasil penelitian ini juga membuktikan bahwa IKNB Syariah lebih tahan terhadap shock  dari pertumbuhan ekonomi dibandingkan IKNB Konvensional. Kata Kunci: IKNB Konvensional, IKNB Syariah, Pertumbuhan ekonomi

Enhancing Economic Growth and Government Revenue Generation in Nigeria: The Role of Diaspora Remittances

2021 ◽  
pp. 003464462110256
Author(s):  
Dal Didia ◽  
Suleiman Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Even though remittances constitute the second-largest source of foreign exchange for Nigeria, with a $24 billion inflow in 2018, its impact on economic growth remains unclear. This study, therefore, examined the short-run and long-run impact of remittances on the economic growth of Nigeria using the vector error correction model. Utilizing World Bank data covering 1990–2018, the empirical analysis revealed that remittances hurt economic growth in the short run while having no impact on economic growth in the long run. Our parameter estimates indicate that a 1% increase in remittances would result in a 0.9% decrease in the gross domestic product growth rate in the short run. One policy implication of this study is that Nigeria needs to devise policies and interventions that minimize the emigration of skilled professionals rather than depending on remittances that do not offset the losses to the economy due to brain drain.

Innovation, ICT penetration, trade and economic growth in developing and developed countries: a VECM approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Parul Singh ◽  
Areej Aftab Siddiqui
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Developing Nations ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Developed Nations

Purpose The development in information communication and technology (ICT) has led to many changes such as reorganization of economics, globalization and trade. With more innovation processes being organized and adopted across technologies, trade, etc., these are getting more closely related and needs fresh research perspective. This study aims to empirically investigate the interrelationship between ICT penetration, innovation, trade and economic growth in 20 developed and developing nations from 1995 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach The present paper examines both long-run and short-run relationships between the four variables, namely, innovation, ICT penetration, trade and economic growth, by applying panel estimation techniques of regression and vector error correction model. ICT penetration and innovation indices are constructed using principle component analysis technique. Findings The findings of the study highlight that for developed nations, growth, trade and innovation are significantly interlinked with no significant role of ICT penetration While for developing nations, significant relationship is present between growth and trade, ICT penetration and innovation. With respect to trade, in case of developed nations, significant relationship is present with ICT penetration. While for developing nations there is no significant result for trade promotion. On further employing the vector error correction model, the presence of short run causality between growth, trade and innovation in case of developed nations is established but no such causality between variables for developing nations is seen. Originality/value The present paper adds to the existing strand of literature examining interlinkage between innovation and growth by introducing new variables of ICT penetration and innovation.

scholarly journals Impact of conventional banking financing and Islamic banking financing on economic growth 2008-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1272
Author(s):  
Hasymi Nur Baehaqy ◽  
Eko Fajar Cahyono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error

This research aims to know Impact of conventional banking financing and Islamic banking financing on economic growth 2008-2018. In this study the authors used a saturated sampling technique found in Non-Probability Sampling. The analysis technique used is VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). Based on the results of the study indicate that there is a one-way relationship on several variables, namely Conventional Banking Financing to GDP and Conventional Banking Financing to Islamic Banking Financing, In the long run, Conventional Banking Financing has a positive and significant relationship to GDP, whereas Islamic Banking Financing has a negative and significant relationship to GDP.Keywords: Banking Financing, Economic Growth, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), VECM (Vector Error Correction Model)

Geopolitical risk, economic growth, economic uncertainty and international inbound tourism: an Indian Illustration

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudeshna Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Geopolitical Risks

Purpose This paper aims to consider the role of geopolitical risk in explaining tourism demand in India, a major tourist destination of the Asian region. Furthermore, the study also considers how in addition to geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, exchange rate, inflation and trade openness impact tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach The Bayer and Hanck (2013) method of cointegration is applied to explore the relationship between geopolitical risk and tourism demand. Furthermore, the study has also used the auto distributed lag model to determine whether there is a long-run cointegrating association between tourism demand, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, exchange rate and trade openness. Finally, the vector error correction model confirms the direction of causality across the set of the major variables. Findings This paper finds that geopolitical risk adversely impacts inbound international travel to India. This study also obtains the consistency of the results across different estimation techniques controlling for important macro variables. The Granger causality test confirms the unidirectional causality from geopolitical risk to tourism and further from economic uncertainty to tourism. The findings from the study confirm that geopolitical risks have long-term repercussions on the tourism sector in India. The results indicate that there is an urgent need to develop a pre-crisis management plan to protect the aura of Indian tourism. The tourism business houses should develop skilful marketing strategies in the post-crisis to boost the confidence of the tourists. Research limitations/implications This paper provides valuable practical implications to tourism business houses. The tourism business houses can explore geopolitical risk measure and economic policy uncertainty measure to analyse the demand for international tourism in India. Further, the major stakeholders can establish platforms to help tourists to overcome the fear associated with geopolitical risk. Originality/value This study is the first of its kind to explore the geopolitical risks and their long-run consequences in the context of tourism in India. The study puts emphasis on the role of national policy to maintain peace otherwise it would be detrimental to tourism.

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