Modelling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Lyme Disease Emergence in Québec

Lyme disease is a growing public health problem in Québec. Its emergence over the last decade is caused by environmental and anthropological factors that favour the survival of Ixodes scapularis, the vector of Lyme disease transmission. The objective of this study was to estimate the speed and direction of Lyme disease emergence in Québec and to identify spatiotemporal risk patterns. A surface trend analysis was conducted to estimate the speed and direction of its emergence based upon the first detected case of Lyme disease in each municipality in Québec since 2004. A cluster analysis was also conducted to identify at-risk regions across space and time. These analyses were reproduced for the date of disease onset and date of notification for each case of Lyme disease. It was estimated that Lyme disease is spreading northward in Québec at a speed varying between 18 and 32 km/year according to the date of notification and the date of disease onset, respectively. A high rate of disease risk was found in seven clusters identified in the south-west of Québec in the sociosanitary regions of Montérégie and Estrie. The results obtained in this study improve our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of Lyme disease in Québec, which can be used for proactive, targeted interventions by public and clinical health authorities.

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Modelling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Lyme Disease Emergence in Québec

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18189669 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (18) ◽

pp. 9669

Author(s):

Marc-Antoine Tutt-Guérette ◽

Mengru Yuan ◽

Daniel Szaroz ◽

Britt McKinnon ◽

Yan Kestens ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Lyme Disease ◽

Disease Transmission ◽

Ixodes Scapularis ◽

Disease Onset ◽

Public Health Problem ◽

Spatiotemporal Patterns ◽

Disease Emergence ◽

Targeted Interventions ◽

Health Authorities ◽

Risk Of Disease

Lyme disease is a growing public health problem in Québec. Its emergence over the last decade is caused by environmental and anthropological factors that favour the survival of Ixodes scapularis, the vector of Lyme disease transmission. The objective of this study was to estimate the speed and direction of human Lyme disease emergence in Québec and to identify spatiotemporal risk patterns. A surface trend analysis was conducted to estimate the speed and direction of its emergence based upon the first detected case of Lyme disease in each municipality in Québec since 2004. A cluster analysis was also conducted to identify at-risk regions across space and time. These analyses were reproduced for the date of disease onset and date of notification for each case of Lyme disease. It was estimated that Lyme disease is spreading northward in Québec at a speed varying between 18 and 32 km/year according to the date of notification and the date of disease onset, respectively. A significantly high risk of disease was found in seven clusters identified in the south-west of Québec in the sociosanitary regions of Montérégie and Estrie. The results obtained in this study improve our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of Lyme disease in Québec, which can be used for proactive, targeted interventions by public and clinical health authorities.

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Effect of Rising Temperature on Lyme Disease: Ixodes scapularis Population Dynamics and Borrelia burgdorferi Transmission and Prevalence

Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology ◽

10.1155/2019/9817930 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2019 ◽

pp. 1-15 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Dorothy Wallace ◽

Vardayani Ratti ◽

Anita Kodali ◽

Jonathan M. Winter ◽

Matthew P. Ayres ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Lyme Disease ◽

Borrelia Burgdorferi ◽

Disease Transmission ◽

Disease Risk ◽

Ixodes Scapularis ◽

Risk Measures ◽

Field Measurements ◽

Field Studies ◽

Mean Annual Temperature ◽

Increased Risk

Warmer temperatures are expected to increase the incidence of Lyme disease through enhanced tick maturation rates and a longer season of transmission. In addition, there could be an increased risk of disease export because of infected mobile hosts, usually birds. A temperature-driven seasonal model of Borrelia burgdorferi (Lyme disease) transmission among four host types is constructed as a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The model is developed and parametrized based on a collection of lab and field studies. The model is shown to produce biologically reasonable results for both the tick vector (Ixodes scapularis) and the hosts when compared to a different set of studies. The model is used to predict the response of Lyme disease risk to a mean annual temperature increase, based on current temperature cycles in Hanover, NH. Many of the risk measures suggested by the literature are shown to change with increased mean annual temperature. The most straightforward measure of disease risk is the abundance of infected questing ticks, averaged over a year. Compared to this measure, which is difficult and resource-intensive to track in the field, all other risk measures considered underestimate the rise of risk with rise in mean annual temperature. The measure coming closest was “degree days above zero.” Disease prevalence in ticks and hosts showed less increase with rising temperature. Single field measurements at the height of transmission season did not show much change at all with rising temperature.

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Comparing the Climatic and Landscape Risk Factors for Lyme Disease Cases in the Upper Midwest and Northeast United States

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17051548 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (5) ◽

pp. 1548

Author(s):

Yuting Dong ◽

Zheng Huang ◽

Yong Zhang ◽

Yingying X.G. Wang ◽

Yang La

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Risk Factors ◽

Lyme Disease ◽

Disease Risk ◽

Ixodes Scapularis ◽

Upper Midwest ◽

Related Factors ◽

Vector Borne Diseases ◽

Landscape Factors ◽

Lyme Disease Risk

Lyme disease, recognized as one of the most important vector-borne diseases worldwide, has been increasing in incidence and spatial extend in United States. In the Northeast and Upper Midwest, Lyme disease is transmitted by Ixodes scapularis. Currently, many studies have been conducted to identify factors influencing Lyme disease risk in the Northeast, however, relatively few studies focused on the Upper Midwest. In this study, we explored and compared the climatic and landscape factors that shape the spatial patterns of human Lyme cases in these two regions, using the generalized linear mixed models. Our results showed that climatic variables generally had opposite correlations with Lyme disease risk, while landscape factors usually had similar effects in these two regions. High precipitation and low temperature were correlated with high Lyme disease risk in the Upper Midwest, while with low Lyme disease risk in the Northeast. In both regions, size and fragmentation related factors of residential area showed positive correlations with Lyme disease risk. Deciduous forests and evergreen forests had opposite effects on Lyme disease risk, but the effects were consistent between two regions. In general, this study provides new insight into understanding the differences of risk factors of human Lyme disease risk in these two regions.

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Reduced Abundance of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) and Lyme Disease Risk by Deer Exclusion

Journal of Medical Entomology ◽

10.1093/jmedent/30.6.1043 ◽

1993 ◽

Vol 30 (6) ◽

pp. 1043-1049 ◽

Cited By ~ 62

Author(s):

Thomas J. Daniels ◽

Durland Fish ◽

Ira Schwartz

Keyword(s):

Lyme Disease ◽

Disease Risk ◽

Ixodes Scapularis ◽

Lyme Disease Risk

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A multi-year assessment of blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) population establishment and Lyme disease risk areas in Ottawa, Canada, 2017-2019

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0246484 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (2) ◽

pp. e0246484

Author(s):

Holly Burrows ◽

Benoit Talbot ◽

Roman McKay ◽

Andreea Slatculescu ◽

James Logan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Lyme Disease ◽

Rural Areas ◽

Disease Risk ◽

Ixodes Scapularis ◽

Urban Expansion ◽

Ottawa River ◽

Urban Core ◽

The Face ◽

Population Establishment ◽

The City

Canadians face an emerging threat of Lyme disease due to the northward expansion of the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis. We evaluated the degree of I. scapularis population establishment and Borrelia burgdorferi occurrence in the city of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada from 2017–2019 using active surveillance at 28 sites. We used a field indicator tool developed by Clow et al. to determine the risk of I. scapularis establishment for each tick cohort at each site using the results of drag sampling. Based on results obtained with the field indicator tool, we assigned each site an ecological classification describing the pattern of tick colonization over two successive cohorts (cohort 1 was comprised of ticks collected in fall 2017 and spring 2018, and cohort 2 was collected in fall 2018 and spring 2019). Total annual site-specific I. scapularis density ranged from 0 to 16.3 ticks per person-hour. Sites with the highest density were located within the Greenbelt zone, in the suburban/rural areas in the western portion of the city of Ottawa, and along the Ottawa River; the lowest densities occurred at sites in the suburban/urban core. B. burgdorferi infection rates exhibited a similar spatial distribution pattern. Of the 23 sites for which data for two tick cohorts were available, 11 sites were classified as “high-stable”, 4 were classified as “emerging”, 2 were classified as “low-stable”, and 6 were classified as “non-zero”. B. burgdorferi-infected ticks were found at all high-stable sites, and at one emerging site. These findings suggest that high-stable sites pose a risk of Lyme disease exposure to the community as they have reproducing tick populations with consistent levels of B. burgdorferi infection. Continued surveillance for I. scapularis, B. burgdorferi, and range expansion of other tick species and emerging tick-borne pathogens is important to identify areas posing a high risk for human exposure to tick-borne pathogens in the face of ongoing climate change and urban expansion.

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Predicting spatiotemporal patterns of Lyme disease incidence from passively collected surveillance data for Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato-infected Ixodes scapularis ticks

Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases ◽

10.1016/j.ttbdis.2019.04.010 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. 970-980 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Eliza A.H. Little ◽

John F. Anderson ◽

Kirby C. Stafford ◽

Lars Eisen ◽

Rebecca J. Eisen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Lyme Disease ◽

Borrelia Burgdorferi ◽

Ixodes Scapularis ◽

Disease Incidence ◽

Spatiotemporal Patterns ◽

Surveillance Data ◽

Borrelia Burgdorferi Sensu Lato

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Lyme Disease Emergence after Invasion of the Blacklegged Tick,Ixodes scapularis, Ontario, Canada, 2010–2016

Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽

10.3201/eid2502.180771 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 25 (2) ◽

pp. 328-332 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Manisha A. Kulkarni ◽

Isha Narula ◽

Andreea M. Slatculescu ◽

Curtis Russell

Keyword(s):

Lyme Disease ◽

Ixodes Scapularis ◽

Disease Emergence ◽

Blacklegged Tick

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Borrelia burgdorferi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae) Infection Prevalence and Host Associations of Ticks Found on Peromyscus spp. in Maryland

Journal of Medical Entomology ◽

10.1093/jme/tjab206 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Julia E Poje ◽

Jose F Azevedo ◽

Nisha Nair ◽

Kurayi Mahachi ◽

Lexi E Frank ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Lyme Disease ◽

Borrelia Burgdorferi ◽

Disease Risk ◽

Ixodes Scapularis ◽

Sensu Stricto ◽

Infection Prevalence ◽

Private Land ◽

Tissue Samples ◽

Wild Mice ◽

Significant Difference

Abstract Lyme disease, caused by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto and most commonly transmitted by Ixodes scapularis Say (Ixodida: Ixodidae), is the most common tick-borne disease in Maryland. Because B. burgdorferi s.s. is maintained in enzootic cycles among wild mice (Peromyscus spp) and Ixodes spp ticks, differing patterns of parasitism of ticks on mice could impact the infection prevalence with B. burgdorferi. We determined the infection prevalence of Peromyscus spp as well as questing and partially engorged nymphal ticks collected at six sites on private land in five counties in Maryland from May to August 2020. Questing nymph infection prevalence (NIP) was 14%. We trapped 1258 mice and collected 554 ticks and 413 ear tissue samples. The prevalence of infested Peromyscus spp varied based on host age and sex, with older and male mice more likely to be infested. We detected a significant difference amongst the proportion of attached Ixodes and the location of trapping. Similarly, the prevalence of B. burgdorferi infected Peromyscus spp mice varied between locations (average mouse infection prevalence was 40%), with the highest prevalence in locations where Ixodes were the most commonly found ticks. The B. burgdorferi infection prevalence in partially engorged I. scapularis nymphs retrieved from Peromyscus spp was ~36% which lends further support to the host infection prevalence. Local differences in distribution of infected vectors and reservoirs are important factors to consider when planning interventions to reduce Lyme disease risk.

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Identification ofBorrelia bissettiiinIxodes scapularisticks from New Brunswick, Canada

Canadian Journal of Microbiology ◽

10.1139/cjm-2018-0376 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 65 (2) ◽

pp. 155-161

Author(s):

Julie Lewis ◽

Vett K. Lloyd

Keyword(s):

Lyme Disease ◽

New Brunswick ◽

Diagnostic Tests ◽

Disease Risk ◽

Ixodes Scapularis ◽

Clinical Manifestations ◽

Sensu Stricto ◽

Tick Borne Disease ◽

Borrelia Burgdorferi Sensu Stricto ◽

Lyme Disease Risk

Lyme disease is a tick-borne disease that is emerging in Canada. The disease is caused by spirochetes of the Lyme borreliosis group, which is expanding as new species are discovered. In Canada, Lyme disease risk has so far been assessed primarily by detection of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. Of Ixodes scapularis ticks collected between 2014 and 2016 in New Brunswick, Canada, 7 were shown to be infected with Borrelia bissettii by nested PCR and sequencing of 5 B. bissettii genes. Since different Borrelia species are associated with different clinical manifestations and are not detected with the same diagnostic tests, the identification of a previously undocumented or underreported pathogenic Borrelia species has important implications for public and veterinary medicine.

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